Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback
From: Vasil Tsakadze <[email-masked]>
To: Maddalena Honorati <[email-masked]>, Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Cc: Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>, Giorgi Tsotskolauri <[email-masked]>, giorgi chavchavadze <[email-masked]>, Ekaterine Asatiani <[email-masked]>, Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>, Ludovico Carraro <[email-masked]>, Ahmet Levent Yener <[email-masked]>, Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 Feb 2021 04:54:24 +0000

Dear Maddalena,

Yes, coefficient of cohabitation is 0.8 - equivalized household size is raised by the power of 0.8.

Best,

Vasil

From: Maddalena Honorati [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Friday, January 29, 2021 7:51 PM
To: Vasil Tsakadze ; 'Tamar Barkalaia'
Cc: 'Tea Gvaramadze' ; 'Giorgi Tsotskolauri' ; 'giorgi chavchavadze' ; Ekaterine Asatiani ; Roberto Claudio Sormani ; Ludovico Carraro ; Ahmet Levent Yener ; Lela Ghongadze
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Vasil,

Many thanks, we acknowledge receipt.

We’d appreciate if you could please confirm that the coefficient of cohabitation is the same as the one used in the needs index, i.e. equivalized household size is raised by the power of 0.8.

Kind regards,

Maddalena

From: Vasil Tsakadze <[email-masked]>
Sent: Friday, January 29, 2021 12:19 PM
To: Maddalena Honorati <[email-masked]>; 'Tamar Barkalaia' <[email-masked]>
Cc: 'Tea Gvaramadze' <[email-masked]>; 'Giorgi Tsotskolauri' <[email-masked]>; 'giorgi chavchavadze' <[email-masked]>; Ekaterine Asatiani <[email-masked]>; Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Ludovico Carraro <[email-masked]>; Ahmet Levent Yener <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

[External]

Dear Maddalena,

I am sending coefficients which are used by Geostat for calculating equivalent adults for poverty rate calculation (Please see attached file).

Best regards,

Vasil

VASIL TSAKADZE

Head of Department

Social Statistics Department

National Statistics Office of Georgia - GEOSTAT

30, Tsotne Dadiani Str.

0180 Tbilisi

(+995 32)2 36 72 10 (600)

(+995 599) 48 28 99

(+995 32)2 36 72 13

From: Maddalena Honorati [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Friday, January 29, 2021 1:57 PM
To: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Cc: Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>; Giorgi Tsotskolauri <[email-masked]>; giorgi chavchavadze <[email-masked]>; [email-masked]; Ekaterine Asatiani <[email-masked]>; Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Ludovico Carraro <[email-masked]>; Ahmet Levent Yener <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>
Subject: FW: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

Many thanks again for the productive discussion yesterday. We very much appreciate your insights and look forward to advancing the work in close collaboration with you and your team.

I am summarizing below the agreed next steps:

Needs Index Revision

GEOSTAT to send the coefficients and scales estimated in the ‘90s early next week; any written description of the methodology used is much appreciated if available;

MoHLSA to share the details of social programs that have initiated after 2014 and may have affected the needs index early next week by February 3rd

MoHLSA to contact other relevant ministries (Education, Agriculture..) to collect the details of other relevant programs implemented by other ministries introduced since the last update in 2014 that may have affected the needs index ,  by Feb 12th,

WB to share a PPT summarizing the results of the analysis following the 4 methodologies presented yesterday by February 18

Schedule meeting February 24/25 to discuss the results of the analysis and agree on the next steps and final methodology for the needs index update – Lela to please send a calendar invitation to block our calendars;

PMT formula update

MoHLSA to send additional and updated comments to the revised models following September’s comments and revisions by Feb 5th. I am attaching here the latest files and forwarding the latest communication below for our records, including the paper with your comments submitted on September 14, a matrix of the comments and how we addressed them as well as the additional analysis on the 4 models and the characteristics of the winners and losers as agreed during our September 3rd meeting (attaching the presentation as well);

WB to address additional comments from MoHLSA, reach agreements on potential additional changes;

WB to remove movable assets variables (refrigerators, washing machines and satellite) in all models and test significance of “wooden floor” and “central heating”. We will conduct this additional analysis once we receive your additional comments for completeness.

Administrative data;

WB to submit an official request for anonymized application data and other administrative data used in the assessment of applicants to generate the PMT score  (by Feb 5th indicatively?)

Please find again the PPT attached for your convenience.

Kind regards,

Maddalena

From: Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>
Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2020 1:13 AM
To: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>; Maddalena Honorati <[email-masked]>
Cc: Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>; Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>; Giorgi Tsotskolauri <[email-masked]>; giorgi chavchavadze <[email-masked]>; Ahmet Levent Yener <[email-masked]>; Ekaterine Asatiani <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

Thank you very much for your email.

Please find attached a word document with a summary of the comments and our responses.

Best regards,

Roberto

Roberto Claudio Sormani

Economist, Young Professional

Social Protection & Jobs

The World Bank

T   +1 (202) 458 - 0676

M  +1 (202) 848 - 6967

From: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Sent: Monday, September 14, 2020 11:22 AM
To: Maddalena Honorati <[email-masked]>
Cc: Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>; Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>; Giorgi Tsotskolauri <[email-masked]>; giorgi chavchavadze <[email-masked]>; Ahmet Levent Yener <[email-masked]>; Ekaterine Asatiani <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

[External]

Dear Maddalena and Roberto,

Thank you for your work on this.  We will review and get back to you.  Please also find our questions/comments on the previous document.  I think some of our questions will be answered in new re-estimations, but please have a look at the remaining ones.

Kind regards,

Tamila

From: Maddalena Honorati [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Monday, September 14, 2020 5:35 PM
To: Tamar Barkalaia
Cc: Roberto Claudio Sormani; Lela Ghongadze; Tea Gvaramadze; Giorgi Tsotskolauri; giorgi chavchavadze; Ahmet Levent Yener; Ekaterine Asatiani
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

In follow up to our meeting, please find attached as requested :

the analysis of the characteristics of the households in the 4 groups of figure 7(“winners” and “losers”)

as expected the number and share of elderly is higher in the proposed model than the current one; this because pension transfers are disregarded in the new PMT formula and

the re-estimation of the  coefficients of the 4 models by removing “satellite”, adding “disable” in all 4 models and adding revenues from self-employment in the Tbilisi model.

Regarding the other movable assets, please clarify whether “refrigerators” and “washing machine” can be included in the formula. It was not clear to us whether there are policy considerations related to the verification of these variables, hence whether these variables cannot be included.

As mentioned during the meeting we had not included  “gas expenditure” in the model as the variable does not seem to be properly measured in the GEOSTAT HIES survey, it would introduce noise to the model. To better understand the degree of “noise” introduced in the formula it would be good to compare for the same household gas expenditures as reported in the HIES and gas expenditures as reported by the gas company. In an ideal scenario we would re-estimate the PMT model based on the actual gas expenditure as reported by the company. We can further discuss whether this is possible.

We look forward to receiving your further comments,

Maddalena and Roberto

From: Maddalena Honorati
Sent: Thursday, September 3, 2020 3:16 PM
To: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Cc: Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>; Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>; Giorgi Tsotskolauri <[email-masked]>; giorgi chavchavadze <[email-masked]>; Ahmet Levent Yener <[email-masked]>; Ekaterine Asatiani <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

Many thanks again for the very useful feedback provided and the constructive discussion this morning.

Please find attached the presentation as requested. We’ll also shortly get back to you on the statistics you asked for including the characteristics of the simulated winner and loser households when moving to the updated formula  (average household size, average share in the family of children, working age and elderly, share of members with disability at different levels).

Kind regards,

Maddalena

From: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2020 3:10 PM
To: Maddalena Honorati <[email-masked]>
Cc: Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>; Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>; Giorgi Tsotskolauri <[email-masked]>; giorgi chavchavadze <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

[External]

Dear Maddalena,

I am well and hopeful to enjoy my 1 week vacation next week.  I hope you are able enjoy summer in beautiful Italy.

As you know we have a very busy and hot summer implementing covid-19 response anti-crisis plan and unfortunately have not been able to focus on interventions in PMT formula.

I would like to ask Lela to follow up with Tea Gvaramadze (cc’ed) on data request, so that you can validate the updated formula.

I am planning a 5 day vacation next week and will be back on September 1st.  We can schedule a zoom meeting any time after September 3rd at your convenience.

Thank you for your continuous support,

Kind regards,

Tamila

From: Maddalena Honorati [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2020 10:05 AM
To: Tamar Barkalaia
Cc: Tamar Gabunia; Roberto Claudio Sormani; Lela Ghongadze; Tea Gvaramadze
Subject: FW: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

I hope this email finds you well and that you are enjoying the summer.

In follow up to the emails below we ‘d like to reiterate our readiness and availability to discuss the findings of the updated formula and the next steps, including in terms of the data request below in order to validate the update PMT model.

Lela will kindly help follow up to find a time for video meeting that is suitable to you.

Kind regards,

Maddalena

From: Maddalena Honorati
Sent: Friday, July 3, 2020 10:46 AM
To: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Cc: Tamar Gabunia <[email-masked]>; Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>; Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

I hope all is well. In follow up to the email below, we’d like to check when it is a good time to set up a webex to discuss the findings of the study and the next steps to validate/calibrate the proposed model.

As discussed in our previous VC in early May when we presented the preliminary results of the analysis, the PMT model - empirically estimated based on the HIES survey data – would need to be validated using administrative data. The recommendation section of the paper outlines the next steps for both the analytical and operational point of view.

We had prepared the attached excel file with the list of variables that we would need at the household level for all households in the registry. Specifically :

Columns A and B include the variables requested and possible disaggregation for some of those variables.

Column C contains the related variable linked to the calculation of the PMT score according to Res. 758 in the latest version that is available to us, that in force as of March 30th 2020.

We  also discussed with UNICEF colleagues this request and how to minimize the ministry’s efforts to compile our requested administrative data piggybacking on efforts already made to prepare the administrative data for the impact evaluation UNICEF is conducting.

We look forward to hear your views and advice on the next steps. We are available to discuss in a video call either next week or the following one at it is more convenient to you.

With kind regards,

Maddalena

From: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>
Sent: Tuesday, June 16, 2020 1:41 PM
To: Maddalena Honorati <[email-masked]>
Cc: Tamar Gabunia <[email-masked]>; Roberto Claudio Sormani <[email-masked]>; Lela Ghongadze <[email-masked]>; Tea Gvaramadze <[email-masked]>
Subject: RE: PMT formula update for your feedback

[External]

Dear Maddalena,

Thank you for the updated document.  We will review and get back to you with our comments early next week and can schedule a joint meeting.

Kind regards,

Tamila

From: Maddalena Honorati [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Tuesday, June 16, 2020 12:31 PM
To: Tamar Barkalaia
Cc: Tamar Gabunia; Roberto Claudio Sormani; Lela Ghongadze
Subject: PMT formula update for your feedback

Dear Tamila,

Please find attached for your feedback the note on the PMT updated formula. It incorporates comments made by you and yor team.

Upon incorporating your comments we plan to share the updated note with UNICEF and other development partners and arrange a joint meeting to discuss the results as well as the preliminary results of the impact evaluation UNICEF is conducting (we had a meeting with UNICEF a couple of weeks ago to update each other on the status of the different studies).

Please note the results are based on survey data (HIES 2018 by GEOSTAT) and would need to be validated in program administrative data as discussed as next step.

Looking forward to hearing from you,

Maddalena

Maddalena Honorati

Senior Economist

Social Protection & Labor

T

+1 202 458 1878

E

[email-masked]