Subject: UNICEF poverty projections and Shock responsive SP assessment
From: Tinatin Baum <[email-masked]>
To: Tamar Barkalaia <[email-masked]>, Tamar Gabunia <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>
Cc: Ghassan Khalil <[email-masked]>, Amy Clancy <[email-masked]>, Nino Lortkipanidze <[email-masked]>, Nino Davitashvili <[email-masked]>, Giorgi Kalakashvili <[email-masked]>, Nino Dzotsenidze <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 06 Jul 2020 09:10:46 +0000

Dear Deputy Ministers,

As you know in light of the COVID, UNICEF has carried out two assessment: a) on shock responsiveness of the current social protection system and b) vulnerability assessment and poverty projections.

I am sharing the two reports and a presentation that summarizes the findings.

The surveys show that

Current TSA system, that is extensively used to deliver the social protection assistance  related to COVID, can handle the task assigned to it, however if the crisis continues longer
than six months, the SSA will need support. Already the social agents are in a very difficult situation as you know.

In the programs developed in response to COVID, there are couple of areas that need further amendment – for example some families with lower scores receive less money than families
who were recently added to the program and have higher scores,

The issue of not being able to cover/support the informal employees is a challenge

The poverty projections show that in case of mild shock, the extreme  poverty can increase by 1.6-4.5 percentage points for population and 1.9-5.5 percentage points for children, and
general poverty  (below 2.5USD per day threshold) can increase by 4.3-9.2 percentage points for population and 5.2 -10.6 percentage points for children.

More details on the methodology or other findings are in the attached reports and summary is in presentation.

At the same time, we are about to start a real time monitoring of the situation of families in light of COVID. This is a monthly phone based survey that will last for one year. The sample will be selected from the MICS so that we can compare
certain indicators. The idea is collect real time data and allow the government to plan and respond in real time to the existing situation. We had extensive discussions with the Gov administration and this survey will be done through Geostat. The potential
indicators to be collected are income, employment, coverage of social protection programs/services (COVID related), migration, ability to cope with the crisis, child related indicators such as education, child care, health, violence, child development, etc.
we can have further discussions about the modules as the questions will change every month, depending what are the needs for information.  This survey especially becomes critical in light of second potential wave. Every month the data will be published through
a dashboard.

With this email, I would like to ask for a meeting  (virtual or in person, whichever is more convenient for you) to discuss the findings and future steps. These documents are not yet public.

Looking forward to your response

Best Regards,

Tina

Tinatin Baum

Social and Economic Policy Specialist

(995 32) 25 11 30 ext 217 , mob: (995) 599 747773 ,
[email-masked]

UNICEF Georgia

9 Eristavi street, IV floor, UN House

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