Subject: RE: PLEASE REVIEW: Fox News Sunday Briefing for DWS
From: "Crystal, Andy" <[email-masked]>
To: "Miranda, Luis" <[email-masked]>, RR2 <[email-masked]>
Cc: Ryan Banfill <[email-masked]>, "Manriquez, Pablo" <[email-masked]>, "Paustenbach, Mark" <[email-masked]>, Kate Houghton <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2016 16:58:45 -0700

Some eds below, also added polling at the bottom.

TALKING POINTS

Topline Message

  *   This week Donald Trump is essentially becoming the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party, and despite what his new handler Paul Manafort says, it’s not just a “part” Dangerous Donald has “been playing.” Trump is campaigning on the same ugly and divisive politics that Republican leaders have embraced for years, and any of their candidates would be dangerous and damaging to our nation.
  *   We’re confident we’ll have a much stronger candidate, not only because voters agree that our primary is energizing the Party, but because our candidates are serious, substantive, and their values are in line with where the American people are today, well into the 21st century.
  *   The choice is clear. We can move America forward with Democrats, build on 7 years of progress that took us from the Republican Recession to the economy we have today and its over 14 million new jobs. We can continue to move toward becoming a more inclusive, dynamic, and competitive country. Or we can get dragged backwards by Republicans who would undo every bit of progress our country has made.
  *   We like our odds, but we’re not going to take anything for granted, we’re going to work hard, we’re going to ask the American people for their vote, and a Democrat is going to win in November.

Key Message:

  *   Our primary and caucus contests have undoubtedly strengthened our party. In New York on Tuesday, exit polls showed that nearly 7 out of every 10 Democrats believe that this campaign has energized the Party.

  *   That’s consistent with what we saw in Wisconsin where 7 out of 10 Democrats in those exit polls said they were excited or optimistic about both of our candidates.

  *   That’s something we’re not seeing on the Republican side where serious questions have been raised about their understanding of the issues, not to mention their temperament given how ugly, divisive and insulting they’ve been.

  *   Their own voters know it. Just 39% of Republicans in New York think that their campaign has energized their party. In Wisconsin 4 out of 10 Republican primary voters…let me say that again…Republican primary voters said they fear what a Trump presidency would do to our country. And roughly a third would rather stay home, vote for a third party, or vote for a Democrat than support either Trump or Cruz.

  *   That’s stunning, but it tells you that Democrats are heading into November in a far stronger position than Republicans.

  *   Whichever side you’re on, it’s clear that our two candidates have consistently offered strong, well thought-out visions for our country that would move America forward.

  *   We just marked 100 days until our conventions, and I’m more confident than ever we’ll be united and strong heading out of ours, while Republicans continue to struggle to defend a bankrupt ideology and divisive campaigns that aren’t worthy of the American people.

  *   Down the stretch, in any campaign, you expect the candidates and their supporters to step it up, to lay it all on the line, and we’re certainly seeing that on the Democratic side.

  *   But Democrats can be proud of our candidates, who even through fierce campaigning have had an incredibly substantive debate about the future of our country. Our candidates are well prepared, and they’re not afraid to take tough questions.

  *   Voters want to see that the men and women running to serve as their president have the energy, the enthusiasm, the fire in the belly. Both of our Democratic candidates proved they’ve got that fire, and that they are ready to fight on behalf of the American people.

  *   Even Republicans are abandoning the Republican Party. You’ve already seen Republican candidates in tight races, like Senator Kirk in Illinois and John McCain – the GOP nominee eight years ago – say they will not attend their own convention in Cleveland. But don’t let them fool you, they’re not any better than the top of their ticket.

GOP Frontrunner Trump Does Not Have the Temperament to Be Commander-in-Chief

  *   Donald Trump’s new chief advisor, Paul Manafort, said that Trump’s outrageous behavior on the campaign trail is simply a “part he’s been playing” and that Trump is “evolving” to become more presidential. Really?

  *   The candidate we have been watching on the campaign trail over the past year is the same Donald Trump that will occupy the Oval Office if we don’t stand up now. . He will govern with the same inappropriate, xenophobic and divisive behavior, because that is who Donald Trump is.

  *   But there’s a bigger issue here, Donald Trump IS the Republican Party. He may have been more direct and outrageous in how he campaigned over the past few months, but make no mistake that the ugly and dangerous rhetoric and policies he’s pitching are what the Republican Party has been driving for years.

  *   He called for punishing women who have abortions in the same week Ted Cruz and John Kasich reiterated they he opposes the right of a woman to a safe and legal abortion EVEN in the cases of rape and incest. And Trump reiterated this week he wouldn’t make an exception for the health of a woman.
  *   They all deny climate change.
  *   They all have economic plans focused on tax cuts for the wealthy that would drag our economy backwards.
  *   And they all embrace the same divisive and offensive positions on immigrants and wanting to deport DREAMers.

  *   Words matter. Republicans know their primary has been divisive, and in fact it has already done a great deal of damage to our country and our standing in the world. We’ve already seen a spike in bullying<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-effect-southern-poverty-law-center_us_570e8619e4b03d8b7b9f2836> and racial tensions in our schools, as students try to mimic Trump. And, he’s inflamed tensions around the world with his irresponsible comments.

But this week Trump came out in support of the LGBT community on the North Carolina bathroom bill, speaking out against HB2 and saying it should be left to the states. Will Trump be able to win over moderates with what Manafort is promising will be a new tone in the general election?

  *   There’s a bigger issue here. Trump may have been more direct and outrageous in how he campaigned over the past few months, but make no mistake that the ugly and dangerous rhetoric and is what the Republican Party has been driving for years.
  *   Republicans can’t separate themselves from Trump, and he won’t be able to separate himself from the ugly things he, his fellow candidates, and the leadership of the Republican Party have said for years.
  *   If Donald Trump becomes President, if Republicans take over the White House, they will drag America backwards on everything from LGBT rights, to the economic progress we’ve made under President Obama.
  *   Taking a new tone for the general election can’t erase the damage Trump himself has done with his ugly rhetoric, and it won’t make up for what Republicans have done when in office and what they’re promising to do if they win.

Dangerous Donald Lacks the Temperament and Judgment to be President

  *   The Economy: Trump’s unfounded predictions<http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/03/trump-predicts-very-massive-recession-in-us.html> of recession and warnings against investing in the stock market are reckless, and economists have already predicted his policies could start an international trade war and cause a global recession.
  *   Foreign Policy: Trump’s threat to pull back from our most important military alliances<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-and-the-end-of-nato/2016/03/04/e8c4b9ca-e146-11e5-8d98-4b3d9215ade1_story.html> in NATO sends a dangerous message, which is particularly troubling in light of his past praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
  *   Nuclear Proliferation: Last week, Trump refused to say he wouldn’t use nuclear weapons on European territory, then suggested South Korea<http://www.salon.com/2016/04/04/his_most_terrifying_interview_yet_why_trumps_sit_down_with_bob_woodward_should_have_america_petrified/> and Japan should either develop nuclear weapons or pay the United States for protection against North Korea.
  *   On abortion: Last week Trump took multiple positions on abortion - from a dangerous and offensive call to punish women who get an abortion, to saying he would allow states to restrict women’s rights, to saying abortion laws are set but he would eliminate them with judicial appointments.

Joint Fundraising Committees

  *   We welcome any effort by our candidates to help raise money for the DNC and state parties.
  *   Similar agreements were set up with both the Clinton campaign and the Sanders campaign early in the cycle, precisely because of the urgency to build a strong national infrastructure now that will help elect Democrats up and down the ballot in November. The Sanders campaign has not used theirs.

  *   It’s important to note, the funds that the DNC and state parties get through the joint victory funds help strengthen, for example, our national voter file and communications, research and digital support for state parties and down ballot candidates. That includes training across a variety of areas, for example, and access to media monitoring and rapid response support. This is helping us build infrastructure for the general election.

  *   These arrangements are not new or unusual. Similar joint fundraising committees were established with our Democratic candidate in both 2008 and 2012. And again, both campaigns have signed on and have the option of using joint victory funds.

  *   And let’s be clear, neither the DNC nor state parties are subsidizing fundraising through these committees for either campaign. For whatever each campaign raises under the agreement that then goes to their campaign, that campaign pays a directly proportional amount for the cost of that fundraising.

Contested Convention / Arizona Lawsuit

  *   It is way too early to discuss the questions of a contested convention. There are nearly twenty contests still to play out, including tonight’s primary in New York.

  *   Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders are drawing sharp differences with one another, but their differences remain focused on how to best move America forward.

  *   They’re focused on how to make sure our government reflects the values of the American people, that we have an economy and a democracy that are inclusive, and that we respect everyone in America.

  *   And last Thursday we our ninth debate saw showed that they both see the bigger picture.

  *   The Democratic National Committee and our Senatorial Campaign Committee are suing officials in Arizona whose decisions led to voters having to wait for hours to vote during their March primaries, and many to be disenfranchised as a result.

  *   If you want to talk about rigging elections, that’s the real example, and it’s a serious problem and we’re glad both our candidates are interested in supporting that. In Maricopa County, officials reduced the number of polling locations to just 1 for every 21,000 people. That’s seven eight times what it was in other parts of the state, and it shows you the magnitude of the efforts to make it harder to vote that Republicans are championing all across the country.

  *   And it’s not just Arizona, you had a member of Congress from Wisconsin, Glenn Grothman, who flat out said that they expected they could now win Wisconsin because of the Voter ID law. It was his Kevin McCarthy moment, and the type of rigging of the system we’re not going to put up with.

  *   When voters go to the polls in November, they can be certain that the Democratic nominee will have the temperament and judgment to serve as commander in chief, and that's not something you can say about the Republican candidates.

Clinton’s Speeches and Sanders’ Taxes

  *   Our job at the Party isn’t to handicap our own primary, we’re not going to referee.

  *   There are real differences, but they’re with the Republicans, and while you have to expect that the candidates are going to draw sharp differences, they’re also highlighting what a much better option voters have with Democrats.

  *   Just look at the issue of taxes as millions of Americans filed last week yesterday, but most of them didn’t get to take advantage of special loopholes or get special breaks. Yet every single Republican plan for the economy is based on tax cuts for those at the very top of the income scale. It’s exactly the economic policy that the Bush Administration had as they drove us toward the great recession.

  *   So ultimately those are the differences that will matter most in November.

Cruz

  *   The vast majority of his Republican colleagues can barely muster a straight face to say anything nice or positive about him!

  *   Lindsey Graham crassly talked about how no one in the Senate would object if he was killed on the Senate floor, and said that endorsing him over Trump was the equivalent of choosing to get poisoned over being shot.

  *   Senator Jim Risch of Idaho – TWICE – gave one of the most passive, non-endorsement endorsements I’ve ever seen.

  *   It’s going to be very difficult for Senators and Congress members to run alongside a presidential nominee they really don’t like! And if these guys are reluctant to show their support for a Senate colleague, I am not sure how the American people will be able to back Cruz either.

The GOP’s Problem with Women Voters

Trump is viewed unfavorably by 7 out of 10 women, but both of his primary opponents showed this week that they would also alienate women voters with their policies as the nominee.

  *   Kasich said that he wants to see Roe v. Wade repealed<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAoKQM1sv0M&feature=youtu.be>, and when asked what kind of punishment that would lead to, he evaded the question by saying that it should be left to the states.

  *   Cruz said that even if a woman has been brutally raped, she should be forced to carry the pregnancy caused by her attacker to term.

  *   In the past, the Republican candidates have opposed ensuring equal pay, family leave, and voted against the Violence Against Women Act.

This past Tuesday was Equal Pay Day was a couple week ago, the day in 2016 when women’s earnings have caught up with men’s earnings from 2015. On average we earn 79 cents to their dollar, and it’s worse for women of color. All of the Republican presidential candidates would stand against protections that ensure greater equality in the workplace.

  *   John Kasich has consistently belittled women and said that we don’t need workplace protections, just a ‘change of heart’ among major employers.

  *   Ted Cruz voted against the Paycheck Fairness Act three times and ridiculed the legislation as a ‘show vote.’

  *   Donald Trump stated that women would have pay equity if we did ‘as good a job’ as men.

Republicans to Blame for Trump and His Down Ballot Impact

It’s fitting that Donald Trump is the standard-bearer of a party that has relied on divisive politics and scapegoating for electoral gain for so long. Since 2004 they’ve used gay marriage as a wedge issue, demonized immigrants and stoked fears about border security. They’ve given birthers like Trump a pass, and fueled the Tea Party with lies about a total government takeover of healthcare and the economy. Then while in office, the only thing Republicans have done in Washington over the last seven years is obstruct. Trump IS the Republican Party.

Advantage, Democrats

Despite all the media attention that Republican frontrunner Trump gets with his say-anything strategy, Democrats are winning where it matters.

Secretary Clinton has earned over 10.4 million vote 9.6 million votes – a full 1.4 1.7 million more than Trump – while Senator Sanders has seven almost 8 million votes (well ahead of Kasich and Cruz) and has garnered more than seven million individual campaign contributions.

Overall fundraising shows a Democratic edge, with Democrats raising a total of $72.1 million in February and 67.5 million in March, and eclipsing Republicans’ fundraising, which amounted to less than $12 million for Cruz, $6<http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/2016/M2/C00580100.html> million for Trump, and just $3.4 million for Kasich in February.

Overall

And while Trump continues to claim that he is self-funding his campaign, his latest report with the FEC<http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/050/201603209011931050/201603209011931050.pdf> shows that he has loaned his campaign $24 million throughout this election cycle, while he raising just $34 million from outside contributors and loans for the entire cycle.

Democrats will have the strongest candidate in November. Period. And we are poised to take back the Senate and make serious gains in the House.

Broad Contrast and Infrastructure

We have been building an infrastructure and operation that will work regardless of who the Republicans nominate. We see the numbers of course; it’s clear Trump is far ahead of his competitors, and we’re ready for him if he makes it through what is shaping up to be a train wreck of a convention.

But we don’t think taking on Trump is fundamentally different from any of the others.

At least with Trump, he’s not shy about exposing what the Republican brand has truly become. Ted Cruz and John Kasich are every bit as extreme as their party’s front-runner, they just hide it a bit better.

They promise the same extreme agenda on women’s rights, they deny the threat of climate change, and they oppose fixing a broken immigration system with a path to  citizenship.

They all want to drag America back to the failed economic policies of the last Republican president who left office losing 800,000 jobs a month and having plunged our country into the Great Recession.

And they’ve all been just as offensive in their rhetoric, using language that alienates our allies, helps ISIS recruit terrorists, and makes America less safe.

So if it is Trump, we’re ready. Maybe it’s Cruz, but it’s hard to see how that comes together in the end. But regardless we’re building a ground game and an infrastructure that’s ready to challenge him on every single position he’s taking on the campaign trail, and that holds him accountable for what those positions would actually mean for the American people.

Polling:

General Election (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html)

  *   Clinton (48.8) v. Trump (39.5) = Clinton + 9.3
  *   Clinton (45.3) v. Cruz (43.0) = Clinton +2.3
  *   Clinton (40.2) v. Kasich (48.0) = Kasich +7.8
  *   Sanders (52.8) v. Trump (37.6) = Sanders +15.2
  *   Sanders (50.7) v. Cruz (39.5) = Sanders +11.2
  *   Sanders (46.2) v. Kasich (42.2) = Sanders +4.0

Connecticut (4/26)

  *   Clinton (50.0) v. Sanders (42.5) = Clinton +7.5
  *   Trump (49.0) v. Kasich (27.0) v. Cruz (18.0) = Trump +22

Delaware (4/26)

  *   Clinton (45.0) v. Sanders (38.0) = Clinton +7
  *   Trump (55.0) v. Kasich (18.0) v. Cruz (15.0) = Trump +37

Maryland (4/26)

  *   Clinton (57.0) v. Sanders (35.3) = Clinton +21.7
  *   Trump (41.0) v. Kasich (26.3) v. Cruz (24.5) = Trump +14.7

Pennsylvania (4/26)

  *   Clinton (52.8) v. Sanders (37.0) = Clinton +15.8
  *   Trump (43.8) v. Cruz (24.6) v. Kasich (23.6) = Trump +19.2

Rhode Island (4/26)

  *   Clinton (49.0) v. Sanders (40.0) = Clinton +9
  *   Nothing recent for the GOP race

________________________________
From: Miranda, Luis
Sent: Saturday, April 23, 2016 5:48 PM
To: RR2
Cc: Ryan Banfill; Manriquez, Pablo; Paustenbach, Mark; Kate Houghton
Subject: PLEASE REVIEW: Fox News Sunday Briefing for DWS

Hi team Research, please review but please also add recent polling in here, both for the upcoming Tuesday April 26 contests, as well as the national hypothetical match ups: Trump v Clinton, Trump v Sanders, Cruz v ... etc..

Thank you.