Subject: Ralston Reports: Democrats double Republicans in voter reg last month, ominous sign for GOP
From: Stewart Boss <[email-masked]>
To: Stewart Boss <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 May 2016 17:17:08 -0700

*Ralston Reports: Democrats double Republicans in voter reg last month,
ominous sign for GOP
<https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/democrats-double-republicans-voter-reg-last-month-ominous-sign-gop?mc_cid=6daa0c4b2f&mc_eid=f6c17b9f51>*

*by Jon Ralston*

*Mon, 05/02/2016*

I have said and written many times that registration is not destiny. But
those numbers mean something -- and 2016 is starting to look like 2012 and
2008 in Nevada, presidential years in which the Democrats did very well.

The latest numbers show the Democrats padded their statewide lead by about
5,000 voters in April, out-registering Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. This
came despite the herculean efforts of the conservative registration outfit,
Engage NV, which is trying to make up for the biennial ineptitude of the
state GOP and a surging Democratic Party eager to atone for the 2014
wipeout.

The numbers tell an ominous story for the GOP:

► Democrats now have a 64,635-voter lead over the GOP, or more than 5
percent (40-35). Democrats have added 47,606 voters this year; Republicans
have added 30,583. Thus, the Democrats have increased their lead by about
17,000 voters. So the Democrats, mostly because of same-day registration
for the Feb. 20 presidential caucus, have made up for recent losses because
of voter roll attrition. These gains have been felt in congressional
districts and legislative districts, too, widening Democratic leads or
cutting into GOP edges. (See below.) For instance, in Clark County, the
Democrats now have a nearly 113,000-voter edge -- that's a 13 percentage
point edge.

► In 2012, when President Obama won the state, the Democrats led by only
37,000 voters at this point; they ended up with a 90,000-voter edge by
Election Day. In 2008, when Obama won the state, Democrats had a
51,000-voter edge at this point; they ended up with a 100,000-voter lead by
Election Day. Republicans can point to Rep. Joe Heck and Sen. Dean Heller
holding on despite the Democratic wave in 2012, but flawed Democratic
contenders helped. And look how far ahead of those 2008 and 2012 paces the
Democrats are.

Smart Republicans are worried about this trend, whether it is caused by
Donald Trump or the Reid Machine or some combination thereof. The GOP can
hold out hope that the growing nonpartisan registration, now at almost 19
percent, might favor their slate. But as Harry Reid seeks to go out with a
bang, these numbers indicate the Democrats' chances of winning Nevada in
the presidential race, keeping Reid's seat, taking two competitive
congressional seats from the GOP and turning the Legislature blue again are
not pie in the sky.

Some of the breakdowns in key areas:

*Clark County - Democratic gain of 5,645*

End of March: 12.6% (107,091) advantage

End of April: 12.9% (112,822) advantage

*Washoe County - Democratic loss of 49*

End of March: 2.2% (5,184) disadvantage

End of April: 2.2% (5,231) disadvantage

*Congressional District Highlights*

*Congressional District 3 – Democratic gain of 1,049*

End of March: 1.0% (3,274) advantage

End of April: 1.3% (4,350) advantage

*Congressional District 4 - Democratic gain of 1,514*

End of March: 9.7% (30,392) advantage

End of April: 10.0% (31,923) advantage

*Senate District Highlights*

*Senate District 5 – Democratic gain of 192*

End of March: 5.1% (3,165) advantage

End of April: 5.3% (3,367) advantage

*Senate District 6 – Democratic gain of 286*

End of March: 5.2% (3,370) advantage

End of April: 5.5% (3,656) advantage

*Senate District 15 – Democratic gain of 29*

End of March: 2.3% (1,755) disadvantage

End of April: 2.3% (1,730) disadvantage

*State Assembly District Highlights*

*Assembly District 5 – Democratic Gain of 179*

End of March: 6.6% (1,892) advantage

End of April: 7.0% (2,070) advantage

*Assembly District 8 – Democratic gain of 157*

End of March: 14.8% (3,694) advantage

End of April: 15.0% (3,849) advantage

*Assembly District 9 - Democratic gain of 157*

End of March: 7.3% (2,120) advantage

End of April: 7.6% (2,284) advantage

*Assembly District 10 - Democratic gain of 268*

End of March: 23.7% (5,225) advantage

End of April: 24.2% (5,494) advantage

*Assembly District 21 - Democratic gain of 96*

End of March: 7.2% (2,109) advantage

End of April: 7.4% (2,210) advantage

*Assembly District 29 - Democratic gain of 96*

End of March: 3.2% (1,056) advantage

End of April: 3.4% (1,157) advantage

*Assembly District 34 - Democratic gain of 157*

End of March: 12.8% (3,784) advantage

End of April: 13.1% (3,939) advantage

*Assembly District 35 - Democratic gain of 174*

End of March: 5.3% (1,741) advantage

End of April: 5.7% (1,918) advantage

*Assembly District 41 - Democratic gain of 145*

End of March: 7.2% (2,129) advantage

End of April: 7.5% (2,274) advantage

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/democrats-double-republicans-voter-reg-last-month-ominous-sign-gop?mc_cid=6daa0c4b2f&mc_eid=f6c17b9f51

-- 
*Stewart Boss*
Press Secretary
Nevada State Democratic Party
(704) 733-0313
@stew_boss <https://twitter.com/stew_boss>