Subject: Stitch — How to Save Your Senate Seat, Bill Clinton's Role in a Hillary Clinton White House, Chats with Lis & Labolt, Justin Russell, Greg Giroux
From: Jonathan Allen <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 May 2016 12:55:39 +0000
List-Id: dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8fmc list <dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8f.326717.list-id.mcsv.net>

** ABOUT THE STITCH
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The Stitch is a morning news speed-read highlighting the work and insights of Newsmakers. It's followed by a daily chat on hot political topics.

** TODAY'S SIDEWIRE CHATS
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* 10 a.m. Eastern — GREG GIROUX joins the Stitch to preview the Kentucky and Oregon primaries.
* 4:30 p.m. Eastern — LIS SMITH & BEN LaBOLT host their recurring Sidewire Chat, "LIS & LaBOLT," with featured guest NICK HACKWORTH (http://mstreetsolutions.com/about/)  of M Street Solutions.
* 6:30 p.m. Eastern — JUSTIN THOMAS RUSSELL debuts his recurring Sidewire Chat with his first guest, KEVIN KRICK (https://www.cagop.org/member/kevin-krick/) , the vice chairman of the California GOP for the Bay area.

** HOW TO WIN A SENATE SEAT WITHOUT REALLY TRYING TO SOUND LIKE TRUMP
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REPUBLICANS remain worried about down-ballot candidates suffering from anti-Trump sentiments in swing areas of the country, particularly in this year's biggest Senate races.

RON CHRISTIE & DOUG SCHOEN talked about it in yesterday's recurring "Ronwire" Chat on Sidewire.
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"I think the Senate could and I'm less sure about the House. I've seen reports that many Reps won't be attending the convention to avoid Trump association. I could see him winning the presidency before helping down ticket."

—Doug Schoen / "Ronwire" Chat (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/87f10403087401ec1d88eb8d9752362c/commentary/18936b1c-319f-491f-a0ac-eea2aa33e5a5)

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"I've spoken to a handful of Senators in tight re-election bids and they are resolved that his presence could flip Senate to Ds. I'm not so sure but Portman, Ayotte, Kirk, Johnson will try to run on record, not as part of his ticket."

—Ron Christie / "Ronwire" Chat (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/87f10403087401ec1d88eb8d9752362c/commentary/927982b0-64db-4b7d-a834-4d1a59e6b070)

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JOSH HOLMES, who managed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's most recent campaign, said in yesterday's StitchChat that Sen. Rob Portman in Ohio has set up the best model for running in a cycle where it's not clear how the top of the ticket will affect Senate races.
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"Senator Portman has done everything right thus far. Raised more money than anyone, hired well, built solid ground-game in off year, diversified his issue portfolio, and has now purchased $15M in ads for the fall. Hard to beat that in a swing state."

Josh Holmes / Stitch Chat (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/1db18bc3f4e64d60e3120d1711a2cdbf/commentary/6a935e6d-f4db-4a20-aae6-dfe12bae2740)

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"He (and many others) have handled the Trump Q well. Support the nominee, disagree on some policies, agree on others, and more than anything maintain control of your own message. If voters determine your fate based on your view of the presidential then you've done something very wrong in your campaign. Conversely, Portman has owned issues like opioid abuse that have strong local resonance instead of getting sucked into national Trump commentary. Same goes for Ayotte and others.

—Holmes / Stitch Chat, 1 (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/1db18bc3f4e64d60e3120d1711a2cdbf/commentary/8d330f38-acce-46fc-b96e-e45e381d3beb) , Stitch Chat 2 (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/1db18bc3f4e64d60e3120d1711a2cdbf/commentary/fb47cdaa-f97b-490a-b14f-d67a1c3e4216)

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** NYT STORY ON TRUMP TREATMENT OF WOMEN MAY HURT THAT NARRATIVE
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The woman who was in the lede of a weekend New York Times piece about Donald Trump's poor treatment of women behind closed doors went on Fox yesterday morning to say she'd been misinterpreted by the Times and is a big Trump fan.

Trump wanted to make sure no one missed that, so he Tweeted about it — accidentally using the wrong name for her — and, according to DYLAN BYERS & BRIAN STELTER of CNN, he even called the control room at CNN's "New Day" (http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/16/media/trump-nyt-news-cycle/index.html)  to make sure they covered what had just happened on Fox.
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"For the producers, the call was surreal. Presidential candidates don't typically call up television control rooms. But Trump is known to act like a TV producer (and his own publicist)."

—Dylan Byers & Brian Stelter / CNN (http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/16/media/trump-nyt-news-cycle/index.html)

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The Times defended its piece and said it quoted Rowanne Brewer Lane accurately. Trump, for his part, is pushing Lane's dissatisfaction with the story as a full exoneration of his treatment of women.

In a normal world, it would be widely understood that the less-than-princely private Trump behavior in the Times story actually pales in comparison to the things Trump has said about women in public over the years. If anything, the latest episode serves to suggest that Trump is unfairly maligned — certainly that's what he's suggesting — because he has a validator on that front in the woman whose story topped the Times piece.

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**
TRIVIAL PURSUITS
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ABOUT TODAY

In the 1954 Brown vs. Board of Education decision, the Supreme Court ruled that separate schools for white and black children were inherently unequal, beginning the process of desegregation.

ONE THING TO KNOW ABOUT SPORTS TODAY

The Oklahoma City Thunder snagged Game 1 of the NBA's Western Confrerence finals last night, edging the Golden State Warriors (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15569759/russell-westbrook-kevin-durant-maturing-duo) , 108-102.

ONE THING TO KNOW ABOUT ENTERTAINMENT TODAY

Police say Sinead O'Connor, who went missing Sunday, was found safe in a hotel in the Chicago suburbs yesterday. TMZ reports (http://www.tmz.com/2016/05/16/sinead-oconnor-missing-suicidal/)  that they were concerned she might be suicidal.

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA

In the 2012 presidential election, four states were decided by a margin of less than 5 percentage points: The are Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

TODAY'S TRIVIA

Kentuckian Hal Rogers is currently chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. Who was the last person from the Bluegrass State to hold that position?

Send answers to [email-masked]. The first person to respond correctly wins the satisfaction of a job done well and the right to ask tomorrow's trivia question.

WHAT TO DO WITH NEWS TIPS, SUGGESTIONS AND CORRECTIONS

Please send them to [email-masked].

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**
CONSERVATIVE GROUPS FEAR LOSS OF INFLUENCE
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DAVID DRUCKER of the Washington Examiner reports on the fear among conservative groups (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/with-trump-atop-gop-conservatives-could-lose-influence-on-capitol-hill/article/2591500#.VzryWpF4QGo.twitter)  that Donald Trump's ability to ascend without their help — and in many cases against their opposition — leaves them with less juice on Capitol Hill.

For years, lawmakers have feared the power of conservative interest groups to recruit and fund primary challengers against Republicans who didn't fall in line with the interest group's policy stands.

This year, Trump survived millions of dollars of spending against him by the Club for Growth and raced to the Republican nomination without promising to sign Americans for Tax Reform's famous pledge. Grover Norquist, ATR's chief, tells David that congressional Republicans will honor their pledges not to raise taxes, even if Trump strays from orthodoxy.
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""Trump has actually said he would not support a net tax increase. He's verbally made that commitment. That said, the power in this town, on taxes and spending, rests with the House and Senate. ... You can't raise taxes without Congress."

—Grover Norquist / Washington Examiner (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/with-trump-atop-gop-conservatives-could-lose-influence-on-capitol-hill/article/2591500)

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** BILL CLINTON: SECRETARY OF EXPLAINING STUFF TO FIRST DUDE OF THE ECONOMY
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For a few weeks now, Hillary Clinton has been telling voters in places like West Virginia and Kentucky that her husband, former President Bill Clinton, would have a role in handling the economy if she wins the presidency.

AMY CHOZICK of the New York Times dives into just what it meant when Clinton said Sunday that the former president would be "in charge of revitalizing the economy because, you know, he knows how to do it."

BUT neither Clinton is racing to define the role. And AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, the former economic adviser to President Obama, says it could complicate the policy process in the White House.
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"There is a practical puzzle of how a role like this would jibe with the existing cabinet members whose job is to work on the economy."

—Austan Goolsbee / NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/us/politics/bill-hillary-clinton-administration-economy.html?ref=politics)

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The Stitch take: Bill Clinton is much better liked that his wife in culturally conservative parts of the country. In 2008, voters in western Pennsylvania asked him if he'd be there to advise his wife in emergencies, and he said he'd do whatever she asked.

They're not campaigning as two for the price of one in most parts of the country, but make no mistake that he's closer to her than anyone she would appoint to run the National Economic Council, the Council of Economic Advisors or the Treasury Department.

Would he have a role on economic policy if she won the presidency this time? He'd have a role on all policy.

** MUST-SEE TV: MEGYN KELLY INTERVIEWS TRUMP
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At 8 p..m. Eastern tonight, Fox's Megyn Kelly airs an interview with the man who spent the early part of the primary season tearing her down over her questions during a Republican presidential debate last year.

KRISSAH THOMPSON of the Washington Post published a Q & A (https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/megyn-kelly-preps-for-her-trump-interview-a-chance-to-go-to-a-different-place/2016/05/16/15e46206-187a-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.html?postshare=6661463410529402&tid=ss_tw)  with Kelly in advance of tonight's special on Fox. Kelly said she thought the timing — and prospective ratings — were right for a Trump interview.
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"The entire year I understood that if he would sit with me we would get an enormous number, but it just never felt like the right moment to ask him because he stayed angry for so long, so I not only believed he would say 'no,' I also believed that if he said 'yes' it would not be a good exchange."

—Megyn Kelly / WaPo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/megyn-kelly-preps-for-her-trump-interview-a-chance-to-go-to-a-different-place/2016/05/16/15e46206-187a-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.html?postshare=6661463410529402&tid=ss_tw)

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** PRIMARY DAY: OREGON & KENTUCKY
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Democrats go to the polls in Kentucky and finish dropping off vote-by-mail ballots in Oregon today, while the only contest on the Republican side is in Oregon.

THE REPUBLICANS
Since Donald Trump is the only candidate remaining in the Republican race, it would be the upset of the year if he lost. Trump was leading by a wide margin in polling in Oregon before Ted Cruz and John Kasich left the race. There's a formula for Oregon's delegate allocation, but it basically boils down to a proportional allocation of the state's 28 delegates based on the statewide performance of each of the candidates.

THE DEMOCRATS

In Oregon, there are 61 delegates up for grabs in the primary, according to the Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OR-D) .
* 20 of them are allocated based on the proportion of the statewide vote each candidate receives.
* The other 41 are awarded based on each candidate's performance in the state's congressional districts.

There's scant polling available in Oregon. While there seems to be an expectation that Sanders will do well in the big western state where he's drawing huge crowds, the one recent public poll (http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/)  found Clinton with a 15-point edge.

In Kentucky, there are 55 delegates hanging in the balance today, according to Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/KY-D) .
* 18 of the delegates are divided proportionally between the candidates based on the statewide outcome.
* The remaining 37 delegates are awarded based on each candidate's performance in each of the state's six congressional districts. The most delegate-rich district is the Louisville-based 3rd District, which has nine delegates.

In both states, a candidate must win 15 percent in any given jurisdiction to be awarded delegates.

THE DELEGATE MATH (per the Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D) )

Clinton 2,220 / Sanders 1,478

Needed for the nomination: 2,383

GIROUX CHEATSHEETS

Click here (https://t.co/YXDQQPc6r9)  for Greg's data on Oregon.

Click here (https://t.co/rnCaQtL9PL)  for Greg's data on Kentucky.

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THE BIG QUESTION

Which Trump positions should Republican Senate candidates embrace and in which states?

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