Subject: Stitch: ACELA PRIMARY PRIMER, DEMOCRATIC FIGHT PIVOTS TO SANDERS' CONDITIONS FOR BACKING CLINTON, DOWN-BALLOT DRAMA, GREG GIROUX's LIVE CHAT
From: Jonathan Allen <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 12:29:56 +0000
List-Id: dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8fmc list <dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8f.326717.list-id.mcsv.net>

** THE BIG QUESTION

If she wins, should Hillary Clinton move to embrace the Bern and his agenda or should he give her his unconditional and full-throated support?

'ACELA PRIMARY' SCORECARD
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IT WILL BE A SURPRISE if anyone other than Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton has a big night when Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware votes are tabulated tonight.
* Trump's remaining rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, already are talking about next month's primaries in Indiana and Oregon and June's New Mexico primary to keep #NeverTrump hope alive (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/04/25/john-kasich-ted-cruz-team-up-against-donald-trump-alliance-indiana-primary-gop-convention/83484992/)  beyond tonight.
* During an MSNBC town hall last night, Clinton rival Bernie Sanders acknowledged (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/7975c703665ada43386a95aa39c043a2)  how difficult it will be for him to flip superdelegates into his column if Clinton finishes the primary season with more pledged delegates — an outcome that is all but assured now and should only become more clear as results are announced tonight.

DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE COUNT (via Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/) ):
* Clinton 1,929 | Sanders 1,245
* Total needed for nomination: 2,383
* Delegates outstanding: 1,590
* Assuming no changes in current superdelegate commitments, Sanders would have to win more than 71 percent of the remaining available delegates to win. For Clinton, the figure is the reverse: She'd have to win 29 percent of the remaining available delegates.
* If they were to split the delegates available today — and that would be a coup for Sanders — he would need to win more than 78 percent of the outstanding delegates to take the nomination.

Reminder on how Democrats apportion pledged delegates (h/t Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/) ):
* Pledged delegates are awarded proportionally based on two factors: the percentage of the vote won by each candidate statewide and the percentage each candidate wins in each of a state's congressional districts.
* If a candidate does not hit 15% statewide, he or she is ineligible for statewide delegates. The same is true for any congressional district in which a candidate doesn't meet or exceed the 15% threshold.
* Delaware has a minor wrinkle: With only one congressional district, Delaware splits its district-level delegates up by "subdivision," with more than half of them coming from the portion of New Castle County outside Wilmington.

Here's what's at stake for Democrats in each state tonight:
* Pennsylvania: 189 pledged delegates (62 statewide, 127 spread across 18 congressional districts). With 14 delegates up for grabs, Philadelphia's black-majority 2nd District is by far the most delegate-rich turf among the 34 districts in the five states voting Tuesday.
* Maryland: 95 pledged delegates (31 statewide, 64 spread across 8 congressional districts).
* Connecticut: 55 pledged delegates (19 statewide, 36 spread across 5 congressional districts). The Hartford-based 1st District has 8 delegates and the remaining districts each have 7.
* Rhode Island: 24 pledged delegates (9 statewide, 8 in the 1st Congressional District and 7 in the 2nd Congressional District).
* Delaware: 21 pledged delegates (7 statewide, 14 by subdivision). This unusual arrangement (http://www.deldems.org/news/press/democratic-national-committee-approves-delaware-delegate-selection-plan)  means that winning New Castle County outside Wilmington is more important than winning statewide. No wonder Delaware native David Plouffe was so adept at figuring out Democratic delegate math for Barack Obama in 2008.

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE COUNT (via Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/) )
* Trump 847 | Cruz 559 | Kasich 149
* Total needed for the nomination: 1,237
* Delegates outstanding: 700
* Kasich still trails Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race more than a month ago, in total delegates. Rubio finished with 173.
* Neither Cruz nor Kasich can win the GOP nomination on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland this summer.
* The only question is whether Trump can get to that 1,237-delegate threshold. He should pull closer tonight

Here's what's at stake for Republicans in each state tonight (via Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/) )

Pennsylvania: 71 delegates available (17 are bound to the statewide winner on the first ballot at the convention, and 54 — three per congressional district — are elected in their own right and are unbound at the convention, though candidates will support delegate hopefuls who back them).

Maryland: 38 delegates available (14 go to the top vote-getter in the state and 24 go to the top vote-getter in each of the 8 congressional districts).
Connecticut: 28 delegates available (13 are awarded to the statewide winner if he takes more than 50 percent of the vote; otherwise those 13 are apportioned among candidates who clear a 20 percent threshold based on their statewide percentage of the vote. 15 delegates are awarded to the top vote-getters in each of the state's 5 congressional districts).

Rhode Island: 19 delegates (it's complicated, but it's proportional — and, based on polling, each of the candidates should win at least one of the state's delegates).

Delaware: 16 delegates (winner take all).

GREG GIROUX'S CHEATSHEETS:
Bloomberg's Greg Giroux has compiled political and demographic data on the states voting today so that you don't have to.
* For Pennsylvania, CLICK HERE (http://bit.ly/1TrZNAI) .
* For Maryland, CLICK HERE (http://bit.ly/1qFLUVQ) .
* For Connecticut, CLICK HERE (https://t.co/fT9HrWpSDx) .
* For Rhode Island, CLICK HERE (https://t.co/abSoPce29u) .
* For Delaware, CLICK HERE (http://bit.ly/1T2fEDm) .

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**
EXCITING DOWN-BALLOT PRIMARIES IN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
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KATIE McGINTY and CHRIS VAN HOLLEN hold leads heading into their respective Senate Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Maryland today,Alex Roarty reports for Roll Call (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/van-hollen-mcginty-claim-front-runner-status-as-democrats-prepare-to-vote) .
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"Democratic voters on Tuesday will decide the party’s nominees for Senate in Maryland and Pennsylvania, two races that have featured hard-fought battles between candidates split along establishment, gender and — at least in Maryland’s case — racial lines."

—Alex Roarty/Roll Call (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/van-hollen-mcginty-claim-front-runner-status-as-democrats-prepare-to-vote#sthash.0LNAm40L.dpuf)

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Van Hollen has been locked in a nasty fight with Donna Edwards, a fellow House Democrat in as state where the primary winner is all but assured to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski. He was helped when the White House rebuked a pro-Edwards group for running an ad featuring President Barack Obama, and Van Hollen is known for his strength in organizing a campaign.

The wild card is whether and how much Edwards could benefit from increased African American turnout in favor of Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton.

McGinty is the favorite of the Washington establishment in her match-up with former Rep. Joe Sestak, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate six years ago.

The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has Van Hollen up 10.3 points (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/md/maryland_senate_democratic_primary_van_hollen_vs_edwards-5757.html) in Maryland and McGinty up by a narrower 3.7-point margin (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-4327.html) .

Alex also reports that the races to succeed Edwards and Van Hollen in Maryland — and a couple of challenges to Pennsylvania representatives, Chaka Fattah (D) and Bill Shuster (R) — will be closely watched in Washington.

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**

TRIVIAL PURSUITS
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ABOUT TODAY
It's the 30th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor disaster.

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA
BOB SHRUM was the first to correctly answer that Chester Arthur was the lead attorney in a case that resulted in the desegregation of New York City streetcars.

TODAY'S TRIVIA
Courtesy of Bob: How many senators were sworn in before the age of 30, despite the Constitution's age requirement, and who were they?

The first person to respond correctly to [email-masked] wins public acclaim and the right to pose tomorrow's trivia question.

PLEASE SEND TIPS, suggestions, comments, complaints, corrections and a deflated football to [email-masked]

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**

DEMOCRATIC FIGHT SHIFTS TOWARD SANDERS' INFLUENCE ON PLATFORM
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In back-to-back town hall sessions with MSNBC hosts last night, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton subtly but unmistakably pivoted away from a battle over who will win the party's nomination and toward the questions of whether and how much Sanders will be able to influence Clinton's agenda going forward.

Sanders, speaking to Chris Hayes, seemed a bit ambivalent: On one hand, he said Democrats would do anything they could to stop a "right-wing Republican" from winning the White House. On the other, he tried to condition his support on Clinton moving toward him.
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"It is incumbent upon Secretary Clinton to reach out not only to my supporters, but to all of the American people, with an agenda that they believe will represent the interests of working families, lower income people, the middle class, those of us who are concerned about the environment and not just big money interests."

—Bernie Sanders/MSNBC

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In her session with Rachel Maddow, Clinton was less ambiguous, citing her own backing of Barack Obama in 2008 as a model for Sanders.
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"We got to the end in June and I did not put down conditions. I didn't say, 'You know what, if Senator Obama does x, y and z, maybe I'll support him.' I said, 'I am supporting Senator Obama, because no matter what our differences might be, they pale in comparison to the differences between us and the Republicans.' That's what I did."

—Hillary Clinton/MSNBC

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** REPUBLICAN WOMEN TO WATCH IN THIS YEAR'S ELECTIONS
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In Glamour, S.E. CUPP profiles a set of Republican women (http://www.glamour.com/story/these-women-could-be-the-future-of-the-republican-party-if-donald-trump-doesnt-get-in-their-way)  who are running for office this year and lays out the challenges of surviving the Trumphenomenon.
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"in the year of Trump, when his antics are sure to have an effect on down-ballot races, can women Republicans get elected anywhere? Plenty are nervous, but many have reason to be hopeful."

—S.E. Cupp/Glamour (http://www.glamour.com/story/these-women-could-be-the-future-of-the-republican-party-if-donald-trump-doesnt-get-in-their-way)

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** FOLLOW OUR LIVE CHAT ON THE ACELA PRIMARY WITH GREG GIROUX
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Bloomberg's Greg Giroux will hop into the Stitch at 10 a.m. to discuss today's primaries in five states. CLICK HERE (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/05ab75b50ed647f415e761f109363d3f)  to join that conversation.

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—30—

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