Subject: FW: FIRST READ -- May 20, 2016
From: "Miranda, Luis" <[email-masked]>
To: "Paustenbach, Mark" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 May 2016 08:46:28 -0700

Clear endorsement for our "Dangerous" over HFA's "risky."
________________________________
From: Murray, Mark A (NBCUniversal) [[email-masked]]
Sent: Friday, May 20, 2016 8:20 AM
Subject: FIRST READ -- May 20, 2016

Risky Business: Why calling Trump “risky” won’t work for Democrats… Republicans are beginning to come home to Trump… Clinton: “I will be the nominee for my party”… Trump addresses the NRA… This doesn’t inspire confidence in the Trump campaign: “Maryland Trump Delegate Indicted on Child Pornography, Weapons Charges.”

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann.

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Risky Business: Why calling Trump “risky” won’t work for Democrats: Earlier this week while campaigning in Kentucky, Hillary Clinton slammed Donald Trump for being “a loose cannon” and for his “risky” talk. She said<http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279975-clinton-rails-against-trumps-reckless-risky-talk>, "I’ve never heard such reckless, risky talk from somebody about to be a nominee for president than I’ve heard from Donald Trump when it comes to nuclear weapons.” But there’s a downside for calling someone risky -- you’re suggesting that he brings some potential benefits, too. As Guy Cecil, who’s heading the pro-Clinton Super PAC Priorities USA, told Politico:<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-clinton-super-pac-223245> “I frankly don’t think ‘risky’ captures it, because ‘risk’ implies potential upside.” Strikingly, Clinton yesterday dropped the risky/loose cannon rhetoric and bluntly said that Trump isn’t qualified<http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/clinton-trump-is-not-qualified-to-be-president-689204291753> in her interview with CNN. “I think in this past week -- whether it's attacking Great Britain, praising the leader of North Korea, a despotic dictator who has nuclear weapons, whether it is saying 'pull out of NATO,' 'let other countries have nuclear weapons' -- the kinds of positions he is stating and the consequences of those positions, and even the consequences of his statements, are not just offensive to people. They are potentially dangerous,” she said.

*** Republicans are beginning to come home to Trump: Here’s the bad news for Trump in the latest New York Times/CBS poll: He’s trailing Hillary Clinton nationally by six points, 47%-41%, though that’s down from 50%-40% last month. But here’s the good news: Republicans are starting to rally around him since becoming the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. In the poll<http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/>, Republicans back him 85%-6% in the matchup against Clinton, versus Democrats who are supporting Clinton by an 88%-5% clip; independents are split, 40%-40% between the two candidates. Also as the New York Times highlights<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news>, “Eight in 10 Republican voters say their leaders should support Mr. Trump even if they disagree with him on important issues. And unfavorable views toward Mr. Trump among Republican voters have plummeted 15 percentage points since last month; 21 percent now express an unfavorable view of him, down from 36 percent in April.” But there are still some danger signs for the GOP: 84% of Republicans in the NYT/CBS poll say their party is divided, and 43% are mostly discouraged about the GOP’s future. That’s compared with 48% of Democrats who believe their party is divided, and 17% discouraged about its future. So Republicans are consolidating around Trump, but there are still significant wounds inside the party

*** Clinton: “I will be the nominee for my party”: Also in Clinton’s interview with CNN yesterday, she was equally blunt in her talk about Bernie Sanders. When CNN’s Chris Cuomo used the words “if you’re the nominee of your party,” Clinton interjected, “I will be the nominee for my party… There is no way that I won’t be.” And while she said she “very disturbed” what by happened at the Nevada state Democratic convention by Sanders supporters, per MSNBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald, Clinton said she was confident the party would unite. But she added that Sanders must do his part to unite the party -- just like she did in 2008. In response to Clinton’s assertion that she will be the nominee, the Sanders campaign fired off this rocket: “In the past three weeks, voters in Indiana, West Virginia, and Oregon respectfully disagreed with Secretary Clinton… [I]t is clear that millions of Americans have growing doubts about the Clinton campaign.” Here’s the updated delegate math after awarding Sanders the final three pledged delegates out of Oregon:

In pledged delegates, Clinton currently holds a lead of 274 delegates
Clinton 1,771 (54%)
Sanders 1,497 (46%)

Clinton must win 32% of remaining pledged delegates to get a majority in pledged delegates
Sanders must win 68% of remaining pledged delegates to get a majority in pledged delegates

In overall delegates (pledged + super), Clinton holds an overall lead of 762 delegates
Clinton 2,298 (60%)
Sanders 1,536 (40%)

Clinton must win 9% of remaining delegates to reach 2,383 magic number
Sanders must win 91% of remaining delegates to reach 2,383 magic number

*** Trump addresses the NRA: NBC’s Alex Jaffe previews<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-aims-assure-wary-gun-rights-supporters-nra-speech-n577296> Donald Trump’s speech today to the National Rifle Association. “Donald Trump will have another chance to reassure wary conservatives still reluctant to back a candidate who once expressed support for an assault weapons ban and contributed to anti-gun Democrats when he speaks at the National Rifle Association's national convention Friday. Since expressing support for the ban and a longer waiting period for gun purchases in 2000, Trump's done an about-face on the issue. He's since called gun bans ‘a total failure,’ opposed an expansion of background checks and called for concealed carry permits to be valid across all 50 states. He's also vowed to eliminate gun-free zones in schools and on military bases on his first day in office, and never fails to emphasize the importance of the Second Amendment during a stump speech.

*** This doesn’t inspire confidence in the Trump campaign: After earlier having a California delegate who was a white nationalist (and who now won’t be attending the convention), the Trump campaign yesterday faced this news<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/md-trump-delegate-indicted-child-pornography-weapons-charges-n577051>: “A Maryland man selected to be a delegate for Donald Trump has been indicted on charges of child pornography as well as the illegal possession of a machine gun and the illegal transportation of explosives. The Department of Justice announced Thursday that Caleb Andrew Bailey of Waldorf, Maryland, had been indicted by a federal grand jury. He is charged with using a minor to produce child pornography for a period of time from March 2015 to January 2016, as well as with possessing child pornography.” The Trump campaign released this statement, "We strongly condemn these allegations and leave it in the capable hands of law enforcement," spokesman Hope Hicks said Thursday. "He will be replaced immediately." The question is whether these kinds of stories are residual problems from the pre-Manafort days, or if they’re still ongoing problems.

*** On the trail: As mentioned above, Donald Trump addresses the NRA Leadership Forum in Louisville, KY at 12:30 pm ET… Bernie Sanders campaigns in New Mexico…And Bill Clinton stumps in North Dakota and Montana.

OFF TO THE RACES: Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 6 pts
The latest from a new NYT/CBS poll<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0>: "If the election were held now, 47 percent of registered voters would support Mrs. Clinton, versus 41 percent for Mr. Trump. Mrs. Clinton’s head-to-head advantage has narrowed somewhat since Mr. Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee: Last month, she led him by 10 points in a CBS News poll."

More:<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0> "The survey reveals that Republican voters are starting to fall in line with Mr. Trump now that he is their presumptive nominee — and that they expect party officials to do the same. Eight in 10 Republican voters say their leaders should support Mr. Trump even if they disagree with him on important issues. And unfavorable views toward Mr. Trump among Republican voters have plummeted 15 percentage points since last month; 21 percent now express an unfavorable view of him, down from 36 percent in April."

From the AP<http://bigstory.ap.org/article/5b30b97a7406469ca28cf04a14089a4e/eyeing-senate-clinton-directing-money-2016-battlegrounds>: "Hillary Clinton, seeking a governing coalition if she wins the White House, is pumping millions of dollars into key battleground states at the heart of her presidential map and Democrats' quest to regain control of the Senate. The Democratic National Committee and state parties are spending about $2 million initially to build coordinated campaigns in eight battleground states with competitive Senate races. The money is being raised by Clinton's campaign through her Hillary Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee that allows Clinton to raise large checks of more than $350,000 from wealthy donors."

POLITICO<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trumps-map-the-downside-223393> looks at the downsides of how Donald Trump is trying to expand the electoral map.

The downballot effect:<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/21/us/politics/republican-donors-trump-senate-house.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news> "Hundreds of millions of dollars that Republican groups had been poised to spend in the 2016 presidential election are now increasingly likely to move into Senate and House races, as many big donors look to distance themselves from the party’s presumptive nominee, Donald J. Trump," writes the New York Times. "These groups and their Democratic counterparts have already spent more than $25 million on advertising in Senate general election races alone, according to Kantar Media/CMAG, significantly outpacing both the 2014 and 2012 campaigns in outside spending. And more than $134 million in advertising for Senate races alone has been reserved by groups for the general election."

CLINTON: She said<http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/clinton-trump-is-not-qualified-to-be-president-689204291753> Trump is "not qualified" to be president.

Yes, she's winning<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/19/yes-hillary-clinton-is-winning-the-popular-vote-by-a-wide-margin/?hpid=hp_special-topic-chain_fix-clinton-650pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory> the popular vote. And it's not close.

Clinton made sure<http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-declares-she-will-be-democratic-nominee-1463701894?tesla=y> yesterday to say she "will be" the party's nominee.

POLITICO takes a look<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/inside-the-clinton-paid-speech-machine-223395> inside the paid speech industry and how the Clintons harnessed it to make millions.

SANDERS: "In an attempt to head off an ugly conflict at its convention this summer, the Democratic National Committee plans to offer a concession to Sen. Bernie Sanders — seats on a key convention platform committee — but it may not be enough to stop Sanders from picking a fight over the party’s policy positions," writes the Washington Post.<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dnc-to-offer-sanders-a-convention-concession/2016/05/19/99706b54-1df4-11e6-8c7b-6931e66333e7_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_democrats-11pm-top%3Ahomepage%2Fstory> "Allies of both Clinton and Sanders have urged Democratic leaders to meet some of Sanders’s more mundane demands for greater inclusion at the Philadelphia convention. Their decision to do so is expected to be finalized by the end of the week, according to two people familiar with the discussions. But growing mistrust between Sanders supporters and party leaders have threatened to undermine that effort."

The Wall Street Journal notes<http://www.wsj.com/articles/reid-caught-in-middle-as-sanders-clinton-tension-escalates-1463701109> that Harry Reid is caught in the middle when it comes to the fight over Bernie Sanders' persistent campaign.

TRUMP: In a speech at the NRA's national convention, he's aiming to calm gun rights supporters who may be worried about his past record, NBC's Alex Jaffe writes.<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-aims-assure-wary-gun-rights-supporters-nra-speech-n577296>

Trump says<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/nj-fundraiser-trump-blames-terror-egyptair-ribs-chris-christie-over-n577256> those who don't think the EgyptAir crash was "blown out of the sky" yesterday, "you're 100 percent wrong."

A Trump delegate from Maryland has been indicted<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/md-trump-delegate-indicted-child-pornography-weapons-charges-n577051> on weapons and child pornography charges.

He's expanding the role<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-announces-expanded-role-top-aide-paul-manafort-n577011> of top aide Paul Manafort.

Republican elites are lining up behind him, POLITICO notes<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/gop-elite-line-up-behind-donald-trump-223394>. "While a small group of Republicans has wrung its hands raw over the choice between the GOP’s nominee and Hillary Clinton, the party’s firmament – social and intellectual conservatives, the lobbyist and donor class, powerful operatives and outside groups – is increasingly getting in line behind Donald Trump."

The AFL-CIO is out with a new digital ad<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSqvbMq0EJc> hitting Trump for being bad for working Americans.