Subject: Daily Political Guidance -- Monday, May 2
From: "Moore, Colby" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 May 2016 10:57:18 -0700

This email is intended to provide a brief summary of key Political Department priorities, including recent news and principal travel.  It includes the following components:

  *   Recent News
  *   Polls
  *   Upcoming Principal & Staff Travel
  *   Upcoming Political Events
  *   Upcoming State Party Events
  *   Election Clips

RECENT NEWS\

*         At caucuses throughout the state on Sunday, California Democrats elected many of the delegates<http://www.capradio.org/72099> who will travel to the party's national convention and officially choose a presidential candidate. In Sacramento, the line stretched out the door at a local community center. The June primary will decide how many of the winning delegates for each candidate go to the convention. There, they will have to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged. Democrats chose about 60 percent of their state delegates on Sunday, apportioned by Congressional district. The other 40 percent are selected by party leaders.

*         A spokesman for Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy<http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-compromise-0503-20160502-story.html> said Monday that he will offer Democrats a compromise solution today that restores funding cuts to hospitals and school districts. The offer comes amid an on-going standoff between the governor and Democratic leaders.

*         Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric in Indiana against Chinese trade policy Sunday night, saying "we can't continue to allow China to rape our country<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/02/trump-compares-china-trade-policy-to-rape-in-indiana-speech.html>."

*         In Illinois, the Chicago Teachers Union appears to be backing off<http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/ctu-teachers-leaning-away-from-may-strike/> an end-of-year strike, citing concerns about losing health insurance as well as pay all summer, as the committee tasked with setting a strike date is to meet Wednesday. The union also is concerned about the difficulty of winning support so close to the end of the year from Chicago Public Schools parents, who've already scrambled to make plans for kids out of class on a district-mandated March furlough day and a one-day teachers strike on April 1.

*         Detroit Public Schools<http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2016/04/30/union-chief-dps-pay-employees-june/83756218/> closed 94 of its 97 schools on Monday, citing the Detroit teachers union's call for a districtwide sickout amid concerns about the weakening finances of Michigan's largest school district.

*         In Oregon, Allen Alley<http://www.allenalley.com/> and Bud Pierce<http://www.budpierce.com/> are trying to do something no Republican has done in 34 years<http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/gop_hopefuls_alley_pierce_hope.html#incart_river_index> - beat a Democrat in a race for governor. Not since Gov. Vic Atiyeh won re-election in 1982 in a landslide over state Sen. Ted Kulongoski has a Republican won the state's highest elected office; with the exception of former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley's strong showing against Gov. John Kitzhaber<http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/governor_john_kitzhaber_will_s.html> in 2010, no matchup since 1982 has been particularly close.

*         Democrat Katie McGinty<Read%20more%20at%20http:/www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160501_ap_f5a3103e70a74b7aaacae569148d6837.html#WvTU0Y6J11LdtFAr.99> had barely finished her victory speech celebrating a 10-point Pennsylvania primary win for the nomination to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey before TV attack ads began flying in a general election contest that could tilt political control of the U.S. Senate. Already, four TV ads - three of them are attack ads - have begun airing since Tuesday night in an effort to shape the race leading to the Nov. 8 election.

POLLS

*         IN - Presidential - Republican Primary - +2 Trump (Clout Research, 4/29)<http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/04/IN-GOP-PRIMARY-POLL-TOPLINE-REPORT-4-28-2016.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Republican Primary - +16 Cruz (IPFW/Downs Center, 4/29)<http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/local-politics/IPFW-poll--Hoosiers-like-Clinton-12787113>

*         IN - Presidential - Republican Primary - +9 Trump (ARG, 4/29)<http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/inrep.html>

*         IN - Presidential - Republican Primary - +15 Trump (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +13 Clinton (IPFW/Downs Center, 4/29)<http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/indiana/Young--Cruz-favored-by-Hoosier-Republicans-in-IPFW-poll-12818419>

*         IN - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +8 Clinton (ARG, 4/29)<http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/indem.html>

*         IN - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +4 Clinton (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +7 Trump (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +7 Cruz (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +19 Kasich (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +1 Trump (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +3 Sanders (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         IN - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +1 Kasich (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 5/1)<http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf>

*         OH - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +3 Clinton (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         OH - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +9 Clinton (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         OH - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +2 Kasich (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         OH - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +4 Sanders (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         OH - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +9 Sanders (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         OH - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +10 Kasich (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         OH - Senatorial - Portman (R) vs. Strickland (D) - Tie (PPP, 5/2)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf>

*         US - Presidential - Republican Nomination - +19 Trump (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Democratic Nomination - +6 Clinton (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +7 Clinton (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - Tie (Rasmussen, 4/29)<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/april_2016/questions_clinton_trump_april_25_26_2016>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +12 Sanders (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +7 Clinton (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +11 Sanders (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +4 Kasich (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +4 Sanders (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +5 Approve (IBD/TIPP, 4/29)<http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-gains-ground-on-clinton-but-both-have-sky-high-negatives/>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +2 Approve (Rasmussen, 4/29)<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +3 Disapprove (Reuters/Ipsos, 4/29)<http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15525>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +7 Approve (Gallup, 5/1)<http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx>

*         US - Direction of Country - +42 Wrong Track (Reuters/Ipsos, 4/29)<http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15525>

Upcoming PRINCIPAL AND Staff Travel

TODAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - New York, NY

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

TUESDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - New York, NY

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

WEDNESDAY
PRINCIPALS
POTUS - Flint, MI
DWS - New York, NY

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Fairfax, VA

THURSDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - Philadelphia, PA

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

FRIDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - Philadelphia, PA & Delaware

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Columbus & Cleveland, OH

SATURDAY
PRINCIPALS
VPOTUS - Dover, DE

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Columbus & Cleveland, OH

SUNDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

Upcoming political events

  *   5/3/2016 - Indiana Primary
  *   5/7/2016 - Guam Primary
  *   5/10/2016 - West Virginia Primary and Nebraska Republican Primary
  *   5/17/2016 - Oregon Primary and Kentucky Democratic Primary
  *   5/24/2016 - Washington Republican Primary
  *   6/4/2016 - Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus
  *   6/5/2016 - Puerto Rico Democratic Caucus
  *   6/7/2016 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries and North Dakota Democratic Caucus
  *   6/14/2016 - DC Democratic Primary

Upcoming state party events

*         5/1/2016 - Washington Democratic Party - Country Conventions

*         5/2/2016 - New Jersey Democratic Party - Jefferson-Jackson Dinner

*         5/2/2016 - Massachusetts Democratic Party - Roosevelt Dinner

*         5/5/2016 - DC Democratic Party - Central Committee Meeting

*         5/6/2016 - 5/7/2016 - Maine Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/7/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Jackson Day Fundraiser

*         5/7/2016 - Connecticut Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/7/2016 - Louisiana Democratic Party - POWER UP 2016 Training

*         5/7/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party - Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/7/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Delegate Selection Caucus

*         5/9/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Kent County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/11/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - "How to be a State and National Delegate" Webinar

*         5/12/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/12/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/13/2016 - 5/15/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Convention and Auction

*         5/14/2016 - Nevada Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/14/2016 - Georgia Democratic Party - PLEO Level Delegate Elections

*         5/15/2016 - Maine Democratic Party - State Committee Meeting

*         5/17/2016 - Virginia Democratic Party - Tech Community Fundraiser

*         5/17/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Democratic Leadership Reception

*         5/18/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - New Castle County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/19/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/20/2016 - Mississippi Democratic Party - JJ Hamer Dinner

*         5/21/2016 - Mississippi Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/21/2016 - Maryland Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/21/2016 - Michigan Democratic Party - Congressional District Conventions

*         5/21/2016 - Kentucky Democratic Party - County/Legislative District Caucuses

*         5/21/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Presidential Preference Pre-Primary Caucus

*         5/21/2016 - North Carolina Democratic Party - District Conventions

*         5/21/2016 - Washington Democratic Party - Congressional District Caucuses

*         5/21/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party - Jackson County Truman Days

*         5/22/2016 - Vermont Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/22/2016 - 5/23/2016 - New York Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/23/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Sussex County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/24/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/25/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/26/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/28/2016 - 5/29/2016 - Hawaii Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - Nellie Tayloe Ross Diner

ELECTION CLIPS

2016 - Presidential

Democratic Party Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton Raised More Than Bernie Sanders in April<http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/02/hillary-clinton-raised-more-than-bernie-sanders-in-april/>

With the Democratic nominating contest entering its final stretch and her sights set on the general election, Hillary Clinton raised roughly $26.4 million in April for her primary fight, her campaign said Monday, taking in more than her rival, Bernie Sanders, during the month. Mrs. Clinton, who now has $30 million on hand in her campaign, also raised an additional $9.5 million for Democratic candidates and state parties nationwide through a joint fund-raising program with the Democratic National Committee. That program allows for some of that money to also be used for Mrs. Clinton's campaign. "Thanks to 1.2 million people across the country, we have the resources we need to continue to run a winning primary campaign while preparing for the general election," said Robby Mook, Mrs. Clinton's campaign manager. The fund-raising brings the total Mrs. Clinton has raised in primary funds to $213.5 million, compared to $210 million for Mr. Sanders. But Mrs. Clinton's impressive total has been met with scrutiny for her reliance on high-dollar events with Wall Street executives while Mr. Sanders has largely raised his money online through small-dollar donations.

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders Pins Hopes for Momentum on Indiana<http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/02/bernie-sanders-pins-hopes-for-momentum-on-indiana/>

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont plans to spend Monday campaigning across Indiana, holding three rallies on the final day before the state primary and hoping to pull off a win after a tough week of election losses and campaign layoffs. A win in Indiana, where Mr. Sanders and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race, could help Mr. Sanders regain some momentum, and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released on Sunday showed them in a virtual tie in the state. At a rally on Sunday night in South Bend, Ind., Mr. Sanders told thousands of supporters that he saw the state as important to helping him win the nomination. Still, last week, amid staff reductions, he began focusing less on attacking Mrs. Clinton and more on his views for shaping the Democratic Party.

Republican Party Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Doubles Down on Indiana as Campaign Struggles<http://time.com/4313770/ted-cruz-indiana-troubles/>

A rowdy voice rose up from the crowd. "You suck," the young man shouted at Republican White House hopeful Ted Cruz as he was making the case for a one-page tax return during a late Sunday evening rally in northern Indiana. Cruz shook his head and briefly deviated from his polished campaign speech while local police found the protester and escorted from him La Porte's city auditorium, a grand 1930s venue that teemed with supporters of the Texas Republican. "Apparently, the young man is having some problems," the Senator said. "I appreciate you sharing your views. Hopefully someone has told you is that children should actually speak with respect," Cruz said at his fourth campaign event of his Sunday. His voice was scratchy from yet another long day trying to catch a break.

John Kasich

Poll: Ohioans want John Kasich to drop out<http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/blogs/2016/05/02/poll-ohioans-want-john-kasich-drop-out/83814886/>

Ohioans - especially Ohio Republicans - want Gov. John Kasich to drop out of the presidential race, a new poll out today shows. Nearly half - 49 percent - of Ohio voters say it's time for Kasich to drop out of the race for the Republican nomination, compared to only 38 percent who want him to stay in. Among Republican voters, 58 percent want him to drop out. The poll is from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, but the same firm found a month ago that 52 percent of Ohioans wanted Kasich to stay in the race. Since winning Ohio's primary March 15, Kasich has endured a string of losses. Long mathematically eliminated from winning on the first ballot, he says he is hoping to win at a contested convention.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump says Americans are letting China 'rape our country' on trade, gives inexplicable foreign policy plans<http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/donald-trump-americans-letting-china-rape-country-article-1.2621199>

First Donald Trump called Mexicans rapists; now he's throwing in China, too. The hate-spewing huckster told a rally crowd in Indiana Sunday that Americans are letting China "rape our country" when it comes to trade. When pressed about his comments the next morning, The Donald only doubled down, raving about his nonexistent foreign policy. Trump's latest diplomatic disaster comes less than a week after he delivered his first formal speech on foreign policy - a teleprompter-led attempt to show his presidential temperament. Speaking in Indiana Sunday - sans teleprompter, of course - Trump let his id do the talking on trade deals.

Thanks,

Colby Moore
Executive Assistant to the National Political Director
Democratic National Committee
O: (202) 488-5044
C: (704) 430-7163
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>
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