Subject: Stitch — Newsmaker of the Week: ANA MARIE COX, the Presidential Race is TIED, and Top GOP Donors Are on the Sidelines
From: Jonathan Allen <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 22 May 2016 16:42:44 +0000
List-Id: dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8fmc list <dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8f.326717.list-id.mcsv.net>

** WHAT'S THE STITCH?
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The Stitch is a morning speed-read highlighting the work and insights of Newsmakers. On weekdays, it's followed by a daily chat on hot political topics.

** IT'S DEAD EVEN
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Two major polls released Sunday show that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied right now among registered voters. A Washington Post/ABC News survey (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-banner-main_poll0522-1201am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory)  shows Trump up 46 percent to 44 percent, and an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll (http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-1463922182)  has Clinton leading 46 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton led by 9 percentage points in the last ABC/Post poll in March and by 11 percentage points in an April WSJ/NBC survey.

The basic dynamic driving the change, PATRICK O'CONNOR reports for the Journal, is the unification of the Republican Party behind Trump at a time when Democrats are no more likely to back Clinton than they were last month.

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"In the matchup against Mrs. Clinton, Republican support for Mr. Trump jumped to 86%, from 72% in mid-April, and the share of GOP voters who said they would support Mrs. Clinton fell to 6% from 13% a month earlier. Democrats’ support for Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, remains largely unchanged."

—Patrick O'Connor / WSJ (http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-1463922182)

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In the Post, DAN BALZ & SCOTT CLEMENT point to the strengths of each candidate.

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"Among registered voters, Clinton runs away from Trump on such attributes as having the right experience to be president, having the personality and temperament to serve in the Oval Office and having realistic policy proposals. Trump’s strongest calling card is as a change agent. The two are judged more or less evenly on honesty and trustworthiness, on strength of leadership and on keeping the country safe."

—Balz & Clement / WaPo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-banner-main_poll0522-1201am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory)

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The most important numbers to keep an eye on from the Post/ABC poll may be Trump's advantages on which candidate voters trust to handle the economy, taxes and trade.
* Economy: Trump 48%, Clinton 45%
* Taxes: Trump 51%, Clinton 38%
* Trade: Trump 49% to 42%

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There's more good news for Trump in the WSJ/NBC poll. He's winning in traditionally competitive states.

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"Perhaps the best news in the poll for Mr. Trump is that he outpaces Mrs. Clinton, 46% to 43%, in the 12 most competitive presidential battleground states—states that Mr. Obama won by 1.5 percentage points in 2012. The presumptive Republican nominee does particularly well in the South and Midwest."

—O'Connor / WSJ (http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-1463922182)

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These numbers are sure to add fuel to the fiery debate between Clinton and Bernie Sanders over whether Democratic superdelegates should abandon her and go to the most popular candidate still in the race — Sanders — or Sanders should recognize that he won't be the nominee and quit trying to blow up the Democratic Party and Clinton with it.

Sanders has a 15-point lead over Trump in the WSJ/NBC poll.

For the first time all year, Republican Sunday-show talking heads look positively giddy. And Clinton is trying to adjust to the new reality that she's in a neck-and-neck race with Trump.

As SHAWNA THOMAS writes for NBC, the former secretary of State rolled out a new theme — perhaps a slogan — on Meet the Press.
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"When asked on NBC's 'Meet the Press' what the 'big idea' of her candidacy is she replied, 'Look, we are stronger together. We are stronger together, in facing our internal challenges and our external ones.' She then went on to repeat the phrase 'stronger together' three more times."

—Shawna Thomas / NBC (http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/hillary-clinton-questions-trump-s-level-success-n578246)

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It's a message that can be aimed at both Sanders voters and non-Democrats over the course of the next five-plus months.

In the short term, Clinton needs to get Sanders Democrats to support her if she hopes to open up a lead against Trump again.

Over the long haul, it suggests that Trump is divisive and makes the nation weaker as a result.

** NOTW: ANA MARIE COX
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ANA MARIE COX of MTV and the New York Times magazine is Sidewire's Newsmaker of the Week, and she joined us for a Q & A Sunday morninng.

ON WHAT DREW HER TO POLITICS
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"Blame my parents, especially my dad. He protested with SNCC in the 60s and voted for Shirley Chisholm in the 70s. He taught me politics is personal -- and fun. The first political opinion I remember having was supporting Carter in 1980, when I was 8. I 'played' him in our school mock election. Which I lost by a landslide, just like real life."

—Ana Marie Cox / Sidewire, part 1 (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/c88ff0ce7dbd71ab6b2c12baa949399a/commentary/c2c53e9e-cd72-462b-b160-3dd134db55f5) , part 2 (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/c88ff0ce7dbd71ab6b2c12baa949399a/commentary/cc76755f-6522-47d5-ae0a-e78a028e3fb2)

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ON THE BENEFITS OF A POLITICAL WRITER LIVING OUTSIDE THE D.C. BUBBLE
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"More than anything, being physically outside the bubble makes it easier to see the groupthink that can emerge, the consensuses that form without people realizing it. I think that's has less to do with physical distance, even, than just being away from the non-obvious pressures of the DC social scene. I'm not, uhm, 'soaking in it.'"

—Cox / Sidewire, part 1 (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/c88ff0ce7dbd71ab6b2c12baa949399a/commentary/4dd115ca-79bb-4374-968f-afd1f3c8f90d) , part 2 (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/c88ff0ce7dbd71ab6b2c12baa949399a/commentary/b618559a-5987-43c8-8244-a616f4e1a8a6)

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ON THE TOP 5 INTERVIEW SUBJECTS
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"(Not in order) 1. Bob Odenkirk 2. Mary Karr 3. Eileen Myles 4. Sam Bee 5. Ted Cruz."

—Cox / Sidewire (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/c88ff0ce7dbd71ab6b2c12baa949399a/commentary/e46b3cd0-d74d-48e2-99db-f0c481d9f917)

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Ana also discussed how her late mother informs her work and her religion, told us where to follow her dad on Twitter and what makes for a great Q & A. Click here (https://sidewire.com/politics/articles/c88ff0ce7dbd71ab6b2c12baa949399a)  for the full Newsmaker of the Week chat.

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**
TRIVIAL PURSUITS
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ABOUT TODAY

On this day in 1856, South Carolina Rep. Preston Brooks made his way across the Capitol to the Senate floor, where he attacked abolitionist Massachusetts Sen. Charles Sumner (http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/The_Caning_of_Senator_Charles_Sumner.htm)  in retaliation for an anti-slavery Sumner speech that had singled out Brooks' cousin for scorn and derision. Brooks beat a surprised Sumner over the head with a metal-tipped cane and then continued to rain blows down even after the Massachusetts senator had lost consciousness.

ONE THING TO KNOW ABOUT SPORTS TODAY

Exaggerator won the Preakness, with Kentucky Derby champ Nyquist coming in third. That means there won't be a Triple Crown winner this year.

ONE THING TO KNOW ABOUT ENTERTAINMENT TODAY

An Arrested Development "Easter egg (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=easter%20egg) " appears in the movie "Captain America: Civil War." If you don't mind the spoiler, click here (http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/21/11722376/captain-america-civil-war-arrested-development-easter-egg-russo-brothers) .

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA

AMORY MELTZER was the first to correctly respond that Iowa is the only state with two senators from one party that was carried by the presidential candidate of the other party in the 2012 election (President Obama, a Democrat, and Republican Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst).

GREG GIROUX, who posed the question, sent in this observation: "At the moment there are 84 Senate seats held by the party that also won the state in the 2012 presidential election. Grassley and Ernst are exceptions: they are among 11 Republican senators from Obama 2012 states. There are just five Democratic senators from Romney 2012 states. That 84 figure is the highest I've seen in 30+ election cycles of data compiled by political scientist Gary Jacobson; it was in the high 40s just 25 years ago and has been trending upward ever since."

TODAY'S TRIVIA

Courtesy of Amory: How many states have participated in every presidential election? Bonus: Name them.
Send answers to [email-masked]. The first person to respond correctly wins the right to pose Monday's trivia question.

WHAT TO DO WITH NEWS TIPS, SUGGESTIONS AND CORRECTIONS

Please send them to [email-masked].

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**
TOP GOP DONORS SITTING ON THE SIDELINES
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JONATHAN MARTIN & ALEXANDER BURNS of the New York Times combine data with old-fashioned phone-to-the-ear reporting to tell the story of top Republican donors choosing not to hand their money to Donald Trump.

Only 9 of the more than 50 donors Jonathan and Alex contacted said they would back Trump with cash.
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"The rejection of Mr. Trump among some of the party’s biggest donors and fund-raisers reflects several strains of hostility to his campaign. Donors cited his fickleness on matters of policy and what they saw as an ad hoc populist platform focused on trade protectionism and immigration. Several mentioned Mr. Trump’s own fortune, suggesting that if he was as wealthy as he claimed, then he should not need their assistance."

—Jonathan Martin & Alexander Burns / NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-fundraising.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0)

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Michael Vlock, a Connecticut investor, told Jonathan and Alex that Clinton is "the devil we know" — not too dissimilar from Bernie Sanders describing her as the "lesser of two evils (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/sanders-clinton-two-evils-223449) " on Sunday — and used a string of adjectives to make his point.

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"He’s an ignorant, amoral, dishonest and manipulative, misogynistic, philandering, hyper-litigious, isolationist, protectionist blowhard. ... I really believe our republic will survive Hillary."

—Michael Vlock / NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-fundraising.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0)

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THE BIG QUESTION
Would Democrats be better off dumping Clinton and nominating Sanders or is she right that he'd crumble under attacks?

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