Subject: Stitch — Will Cruz Get Checkma-Ted in Indiana?, Clinton Confronted in Coal Country, Jerry Seib on the Mirror Images of Trump and Clinton
From: Jonathan Allen <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 May 2016 11:49:47 +0000
List-Id: dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8fmc list <dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8f.326717.list-id.mcsv.net>

** THE BIG QUESTION

Which attributes will matter more to voters: Trump's personal appeal or Clinton's temperament and experience?

LAST STAND FOR CRUZ AND THE ANTI-TRUMP MOVEMENT
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It would be an epic upset if Ted Cruz managed to beat Donald Trump in today's Indiana Republican presidential primary.

The very vast majority of Republican voters already expect Trump to be the party's nominee, and his numbers have jumped since he swept a series of five states stretching from the mid-Atlantic to New England a week ago.

THAT'S WHAT SCOTT REED, campaign manager for Bob Dole in 1996 and longtime resident of the Chamber of Commerce, was talking about when he spoke to the Washington Post's PHIL RUCKER & DAVE WEIGEL (or at least one of them) for their preview of today's battle.
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"You cannot underestimate the impact that Trump winning all counties last week in the ‘Acela primary’ had on Indiana. ... A month ago, Cruz was leading Trump by 20 percent in Indiana. Trump’s wins, coupled with landing his plane in state, have driven voters into his column.”

—Scott Reed/WaPo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-sees-a-decisive-indiana-victory-at-hand-gears-up-to-take-on-clinton/2016/05/02/eaa392da-1070-11e6-81b4-581a5c4c42df_story.html)

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JIM ACOSTA, CNN's Trump expert, said on Sidewire yesterday that the Donald's only been picking up steam since then.
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"Felt like the last few days were pivotal. Cruz struggled with a pro Trump heckler then Trump lands IN political all star team of [Bobby] Knight, [Digger] Phelps, [Lou] Holtz, and [Gene] Keady. Trump is capitalizing on every Cruz stumble now, even Fiorina's stage tumble."

—Jim Acosta/Sidewire (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/76e75876d31c8e43d61e06e4e9d3f59c/commentary/50b86a00-84d8-4aac-8962-709ef5eab0da)

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The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has the Donald up 42 percent to 32.7 percent, with John Kasich at 9 percent following a misbegotten deal to give Cruz a clean shot at Trump in the Hoosier State.
BY THE NUMBERS (h/t The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IN-R) )
* Indiana has 57 delegates to the Republican National Convention.
* 30 of them go to the statewide winner.
* 27 delegates are evenly apportioned among the state's 9 congressional districts, with the winner in each district getting all three of its delegates.

OVERALL DELEGATE COUNT (h/t The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R) )

Trump 1,000 | Cruz 570 | Kasich 157

Total needed to secure the nomination: 1,237

THE ONLY MAJOR PRIZE LEFT on the map is California, which votes next month. Trump's lead has expanded (from 18 points to 27 points to 34 points in the most recent polls tracked by Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html) . If those numbers bear out, there's nothing left in Trump's path to the Republican nomination.

As ADAM NAGOURNEY & JONATHAN MARTIN report for the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/us/politics/california-primary.html?ref=politics) , Republican elites in California, including 2012 Mitt Romney adviser Lanhee Chen, worry that Trump's ascendance could set back their efforts to be rebuild the party in the nation's most populous state.
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"A discussion that is as caustic and bitter about immigration as Trump wants is problematic for the long-term prospects of the party. ... It’s hard to get good candidates ... to do kamikaze missions.”

—Lanhee Chen/NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/us/politics/california-primary.html?ref=politics)

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OVER ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, the race in Indiana appears to be closer.
Hillary Clinton led Bernie Sanders 50 percent to 46 percent in a Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist poll (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf)  conducted at the end of April, a narrower margin than her 6.8 percent edge in the average of recent polls.

BY THE NUMBERS (h/t The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IN-D) )
* 83 of Indiana's 92 delegates are determined by today's results; the remainder are party-leader superdelegates who are free to vote for the candidate of their choice at the Democratic convention.
* 27 delegates are awarded proportionally based on each candidate's performance statewide.
* The remaining 56 delegates are distributed (unevenly) across Indiana's 9 congressional districts, with the delegates in each district awarded based on each candidate's performance in that district.
* The number of delegates available in each district range from 5 to 8, with the biggest targets in Rep. Pete Visclosky's Gary-based 1st District and Rep. Andre Carson's Indianapolis-based 7th District. Republican Rep. Susan Brooks' 5th District has 7 Democratic delegates up for grabs.

OVERALL DELEGATE COUNT (h/t The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D) )

Clinton 2,163 | Sanders 1,411

Total needed to secure the nomination: 2,383

IF YOU WANT MORE NUMBERS — AND YOU KNOW YOU WANT MORE NUMBERS — click here (http://bit.ly/1YYe1Lf)  for GREG GIROUX's Indiana cheatsheet, which is stocked with political and demographic data pertinent to today's Hoosier primary.

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**

GUESS WHAT WEST VIRGINIANS WANT TO PUT IN HILLARY CLINTON'S STOCKING THIS CHRISTMAS?
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Back when she was campaigning in Ohio, Hillary Clinton said she was going to put the coal industry out of business and focus more on creating jobs in the renewable energy industry. It was, at best, an impolitic thing to say in a state where manufacturing and mining jobs always seem to be on the chopping block.

Yesterday, Clinton was confronted in neighboring West Virginia by a man who said he'd lost his job as a coal miner, as JENNIFER EPSTEIN recounts for Bloomberg Politics (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-02/clinton-walks-back-coal-remarks-after-confrontation-in-west-virginia) .
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“I just want to know how you can say you’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of a lot of jobs and come in here and tell us how you’re going to be our friend."

—Bo Copley/Bloomberg Politics (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-02/clinton-walks-back-coal-remarks-after-confrontation-in-west-virginia)

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CLINTON, who tried to walk back her words at the time, came closer — but still an arm's length away — from a real apology in response to Copley's question.
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"I don’t know how to explain it other than what I said was totally out of context from what I meant because I have been talking about helping coal country for a very long time. ... I understand the anger and I understand the fear and I understand the disappointment that is being expressed."

—Hillary Clinton/Bloomberg Politics (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-02/clinton-walks-back-coal-remarks-after-confrontation-in-west-virginia)

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THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE jumped on Clinton's Ohio remark when she made it and used it to hammer her again yesterday.
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"“If Hillary Clinton really stood with coal country she’d be calling on the Obama EPA to stop taking a wrecking ball to their way of life. Given her steadfast support for Obama’s War on Coal, her promise to ‘put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business’ may have been one of the few honest moments she’s had this entire campaign."

—Michael Short/Republican National Committee

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Two things to keep in mind, though:
* If Clinton wins West Virginia in November — a feat no Democrat has accomplished since her husband in 1996 — it means she won a landslide across the country.
* Clinton won all of the coal-producing counties in Ohio in the Democratic primary, and she will lose most, if not all, of them in the general election — unless she wins a Reagan '84-style landslide across the country.

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**
TRIVIAL PURSUITS
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ABOUT TODAY
Niccolo Machiavelli would have turned 547 years old today.

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA

When FDR was campaigning for re-election in 1936, after following a 1932 promise to cut spending with major expansions of government, he asked his speechwriter, Sam Rosenman how he could square the two things. Here's what Rosenman said: "The only thing you can say about the 1932 speech is to deny categorically that you ever made it."

TODAY'S TRIVIA

Which Newsmaker gave Hillary Clinton a copy of Machiavelli's "The Prince" to give to her granddaughter?

Send answers to [email-masked]. The first person to respond correctly wins approbation and the right to pose Wednesday's trivia question.

PLEASE SEND TIPS, suggestions, comments, complaints, corrections andgimmicks that might actually work at the end of a campaign [email-masked].

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**
THE MIRROR HAS TWO FACES: TRUMP AND CLINTON
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JERRY SEIB brings a November-defining frame to the pages of the Wall Street Journal, observing that voters' views of the strengths and weaknesses of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are mirror images of each other.

Calling their candidacies "an extreme study in contrasts," Jerry digs into data from the latest WSJ/NBC polling:
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"Clinton scored well for her knowledge and experience, for her temperament, and for her ability to handle an international crisis. On what might be considered softer attributes—being easygoing and likable, having the ability to bring change to the country and being honest and straightforward—she was weaker. ... [Trump] scored well for an ability to get things done, bring change to the country and for being honest and straightforward. The deepest doubts have to do with his temperament, his knowledge and experience and his ability to handle an international crisis."

—Jerry Seib/WSJ (http://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-harbor-differing-concerns-about-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-1462206229)

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Under the original system of choosing presidents and vice presidents, these two would probably be stuck together for the next four years.

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**
LIVE CHATS
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We've got a full slate of live chats today on Sidewire:

In the Stitch:
* 10 a.m. ET — former Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.)
* 10:30 a.m. ET — Bloomberg's Greg Giroux

Coming up later:
* 1 p.m. ET — Steve Hilton, co-founder of CrowdPAC and former senior adviser to David Cameron, on his book "More Human (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgw8lFd7ubA) ," which is about re-making outdated institutions of governance, politics and business to better reflect the realities of daily life.
* 6:30 p.m. ET — Primary night results chat

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—30—

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