Subject: Daily Political Guidance -- Tuesday, May 3
From: "Moore, Colby" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 May 2016 08:11:49 -0700

This email is intended to provide a brief summary of key Political Department priorities, including recent news and principal travel.  It includes the following components:

  *   Recent News
  *   Polls
  *   Upcoming Principal & Staff Travel
  *   Upcoming Political Events
  *   Upcoming State Party Events
  *   Election Clips

RECENT NEWS\

*         Indiana residents are headed to the polls to cast their ballots in what has become one of the most important primaries<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/storylines-watch-indiana-primary/story?id=38813581> this election season.

*         In New Hampshire, Governor Hassan<https://www.facebook.com/maggiefornh/videos/1178327418868391/> has gone on air with her first campaign ad this cycle.

*         After securing the Republican nomination for Attorney General in Pennsylvania, State Senator John Rafferty is issuing a challenge for his Democratic opponent in the fall, Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro<http://www.politicspa.com/rafferty-issues-challenge-for-shapiro/75154/>. Rafferty called on Shapiro to join him in signing a petition stating that whoever wins the AG race will not seek higher office later on.

POLLS

*         CA - Presidential - Republican Primary - +34 Trump (KABC/SurveyUSA, 5/2)<http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/>

*         CA - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +19 Clinton (KABC/SurveyUSA, 5/2)<http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/>

*         CA - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +22 Clinton (KABC/SurveyUSA, 5/2)<http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/>

*         CA - Presidential - Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +28 Clinton (KABC/SurveyUSA, 5/2)<http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/>

*         CA - Presidential - Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +19 Clinton (KABC/SurveyUSA, 5/2)<http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/>

*         CA - Senatorial - Open Primary - +11 Harris (KABC/SurveyUSA, 5/2)<http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/>

*         IN - Presidential - Republican Primary - +17 Trump (Gravis, 5/2)<http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-indiana-polling/>

*         US - Presidential - Republican Nomination - +24 Trump (CNN/ORC, 5/2)<http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html?adkey=bn>

*         US - Presidential - Democratic Nomination - +8 Clinton (CNN/ORC, 5/2)<http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html?adkey=bn>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +2 Trump (Rasmussen, 5/2)<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39>

Upcoming PRINCIPAL AND Staff Travel

TUESDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - New York, NY

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

WEDNESDAY
PRINCIPALS
POTUS - Flint, MI
DWS - New York, NY

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Fairfax, VA

THURSDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - Philadelphia, PA

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

FRIDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - Philadelphia, PA & Delaware

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Columbus & Cleveland, OH

SATURDAY
PRINCIPALS
VPOTUS - Dover, DE

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Columbus & Cleveland, OH

SUNDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

Upcoming political events

  *   5/3/2016 - Indiana Primary
  *   5/7/2016 - Guam Primary
  *   5/10/2016 - West Virginia Primary and Nebraska Republican Primary
  *   5/17/2016 - Oregon Primary and Kentucky Democratic Primary
  *   5/24/2016 - Washington Republican Primary
  *   6/4/2016 - Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus
  *   6/5/2016 - Puerto Rico Democratic Caucus
  *   6/7/2016 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries and North Dakota Democratic Caucus
  *   6/14/2016 - DC Democratic Primary

Upcoming state party events

*         5/5/2016 - DC Democratic Party - Central Committee Meeting

*         5/6/2016 - 5/7/2016 - Maine Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/7/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Jackson Day Fundraiser

*         5/7/2016 - Connecticut Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/7/2016 - Louisiana Democratic Party - POWER UP 2016 Training

*         5/7/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party - Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/7/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Delegate Selection Caucus

*         5/9/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Kent County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/11/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - "How to be a State and National Delegate" Webinar

*         5/12/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/12/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/13/2016 - 5/15/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Convention and Auction

*         5/14/2016 - Nevada Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/14/2016 - Georgia Democratic Party - PLEO Level Delegate Elections

*         5/15/2016 - Maine Democratic Party - State Committee Meeting

*         5/17/2016 - Virginia Democratic Party - Tech Community Fundraiser

*         5/17/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Democratic Leadership Reception

*         5/18/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - New Castle County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/19/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/20/2016 - Mississippi Democratic Party - JJ Hamer Dinner

*         5/21/2016 - Mississippi Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/21/2016 - Maryland Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/21/2016 - Michigan Democratic Party - Congressional District Conventions

*         5/21/2016 - Kentucky Democratic Party - County/Legislative District Caucuses

*         5/21/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Presidential Preference Pre-Primary Caucus

*         5/21/2016 - North Carolina Democratic Party - District Conventions

*         5/21/2016 - Washington Democratic Party - Congressional District Caucuses

*         5/21/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party - Jackson County Truman Days

*         5/22/2016 - Vermont Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/22/2016 - 5/23/2016 - New York Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/23/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Sussex County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/24/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/25/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/26/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/28/2016 - 5/29/2016 - Hawaii Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - Nellie Tayloe Ross Diner

ELECTION CLIPS

2016 - Presidential

Democratic Party Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Clinton and Sanders spar over joint fundraising efforts<http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-fundraising/>

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders campaign spent part of Monday fighting over how much money the front-runner's operation has actually raised for state parties, with Sanders' campaign charging Clinton with "laundering" donations. Both Democratic campaigns have signed joint fundraising efforts with the Democratic National Committee, allowing the presidential campaigns to raise money for the Democratic committee and a host of state Democratic parties. Because of federal election rules, campaigns are allowed to raise upwards of $350,000 from individuals for joint fundraising efforts. But Clinton has been the only candidate to use it, raising, according to her campaign, $46 million for the DNC and state parties through the Hillary Victory Fund, the Clinton campaign's joint fundraising effort.

Bernie Sanders

Hoarse but Energetic, Bernie Sanders Presses for Votes in Indiana<http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/02/hoarse-but-energetic-bernie-sanders-presses-for-votes-in-indiana/>

Bernie Sanders capped off a day of campaigning around Indiana on Monday with a boisterous and energetic rally in downtown Indianapolis. Mr. Sanders's voice sounded particularly hoarse as he railed against income inequality, with many of his supporters reciting parts of his now familiar speech along with him. The rally was one of three he held in Indiana on Monday to court the state's voters, who go to the polls on Tuesday, and stress the state's importance in his push to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Although the chances have narrowed for the Vermont senator, his supporters were as lively as ever on Monday night, shouting his name and waving signs throughout his speech.

Republican Party Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz scrambles to reverse fortunes in Indiana<http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-indiana-primary/>

Ted Cruz has everything he wanted in Indiana: A one-on-one match-up with rival Donald Trump in a conservative state with a supportive governor and an announced running-mate, Carly Fiorina, at his side. But on Monday, Cruz is racing to reverse polls that showed him trailing. "I trust the people of Indiana to differentiate ... We are not a bitter, angry, petty, bigoted people. That is not America. I reject that vision of America," Cruz said in Osceola. "We are not an angry, ugly people, and the people of Indiana -- the people of Indiana have good judgment, have good values. The people of Indiana are the heartland of this country, and we have a choice -- we have a choice about our national character; who we will be."

John Kasich

Indiana may end Kasich's presidential dream<http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/05/03/indiana-may-end-kasichs-dream.html>

If things go as forecast in today's Indiana primary, the pressure on John Kasich to give up his presidential dream is likely to increase dramatically. That's because Donald Trump will have all but sewn up a victory before July's GOP convention in Cleveland - turning the governor's quest from long-shot to all-but-impossible. If Trump sweeps the Hoosier State, he would have to win only about 40 percent of the delegates in the handful of remaining states to attain the 1,237 needed to mathematically clinch the nomination. "If we win Indiana, it's over," Trump proclaimed.

Donald Trump

The Last Chance to Stop Donald Trump?<http://time.com/4316032/the-last-chance-to-stop-donald-trump/>

It's primary day in Indiana (all polls close by 7 p.m. Eastern), where Ted Cruz's best hope is to keep Donald Trump from 1,237 delegates and force a contested convention. But things are not looking up for Cruz, who is finding that barnstorming the state, picking a veep and millions in television ads aren't enough to overcome the distaste with which he is viewed by many in the GOP. He'd even scored the support of establishment figures and convinced his rival, John Kasich to clear the field in the state. For years Cruz has argued that his absolutist strain of conservatism would win if only given a chance, and for months he has promised victory over Trump in a head-to-head match-up. Both of those hypotheses will be tested to and likely to be proven false. For Cruz, it will be a crumbling of the myth he helped create-of a silent crop of millions of conservatives who have stayed home in recent elections just waiting for a savior like him to turn them out to the polls. For Trump, a win won't put him over the needed figure, but makes him almost certain to reach the majority of delegates before the convention in July.

Thanks,

Colby Moore
Executive Assistant to the National Political Director
Democratic National Committee
O: (202) 488-5044
C: (704) 430-7163
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>
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