Subject: Daily Political Guidance --Monday, May 23
From: "Gonzalez, Elias" <[email-masked]>
To: "Gonzalez, Elias" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 May 2016 09:17:11 -0700

This email is intended to provide a brief summary of key Political Department priorities, including recent news and principal travel.  It includes the following components:

  *   Recent News
  *   Polls
  *   Upcoming Principal & Staff Travel
  *   Upcoming Political Events
  *   Upcoming State Party Events
  *   Election Clips

RECENT NEWS\

*         Baltimore officer acquitted of assault<http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/baltimore-officer-acquitted-assault-charges-arrest-freddie-gray-39308381>, other charges in arrest of Freddie Gray, who died after injury in police custody.

*         Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner says there's time for Republicans and rank-and-file Democrats to accomplish "a grand compromise<http://www.sj-r.com/news/20160523/rauner-says-theres-still-time-for-grand-compromise>" on a balanced budget before the Legislature adjourns May 31. Illinois has been without a budget for more than 10 months during which Rauner has faced off with Democrats who control the Legislature.

*         Ted Wheeler's head hit the pillow around 11 p.m. Election Day, just three hours removed from celebrating one of Portland's (Oregon) most commanding political victories in decades - he'll become Portland's Mayor on January 1, 2017.  While Wheeler and current Mayor Charlie Hales are saying the right things about a cordial transition, they have a frayed relationship and haven't spoken - beyond trading voicemails - since Tuesday's primary election. They're not scheduled<http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2016/05/tough_transition_can_portlands.html#incart_river_index> to meet until June 2.

*         Michigan schools produced more than 1,300 expulsions during the 2014-15 school year, with nearly half of the kids being kicked out for 180 days - the equivalent of an entire school year. Now lawmakers are proposing new rules designed to reduce the number of kids with lengthy expulsions and suspensions.<http://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2016/05/22/expulsions-school-michigan-lawmakers/84291958/>

*         Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton has signed a bill into law replacing the state's caucus system with a presidential primary<http://politicsinminnesota.com/2016/05/dayton-signs-law-moving-minnesota-to-presidential-primary/>. Dayton's office announced Sunday the governor had signed the bill that would establish a primary in the state beginning in 2020.

POLLS

*         FL - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +1 Clinton (CBS News/YouGov, 5/22)<https://www.scribd.com/doc/313450291/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Florida-May-22>

*         FL - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +4 Clinton (Gravis, 5/22)<http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/florida-general-election-poll-marijuana-and-trans-bathroom/>

*         FL - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) Tie (CBS News/YouGov, 5/22)<https://www.scribd.com/doc/313450291/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Florida-May-22>

*         OH - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) -+ 5 Clinton (CBS News/YouGov, 5/22)<https://www.scribd.com/doc/313450292/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Ohio-May-22>

*         OH - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) -+9 Sanders (CBS News/YouGov, 5/22)<https://www.scribd.com/doc/313450292/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Ohio-May-22>

*         VA - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) Tie (Roanoke College, 5/23)<http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_may_2016_general_election>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +3 Clinton (NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl, 5/22)<http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-n577726>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +2 Trump (ABC News/Wash Post, 5/22)<http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1177a1ClintonTrump.pdf>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +15 Sanders (NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl, 5/22)<http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-n577726>

*         US - Democratic Presidential Nomination - +14 Clinton (ABC News/Wash Post, 5/22)<http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1177a1ClintonTrump.pdf>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +4 Disapprove (ABC News/Wash Post, 5/22)<https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/05/22/National-Politics/Polling/question_16330.xml?uuid=B1SLvB_SEeaCwqfcsxMofQ>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +9 Approve (Gallup, 5/22)<http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx>

*         US - Generic Congressional Vote Tie (ABC News/Wash Post, 5/22)<http://gravismarketing.com/polling-ahttps:/www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/05/22/National-Politics/Polling/question_16394.xml?uuid=1S9YtB_SEeaCwqfcsxMofQnd-market-research/florida-general-election-poll-marijuana-and-trans-bathroom/>

Upcoming PRINCIPAL AND Staff Travel

MONDAY
PRINCIPALS
None scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

TUESDAY
PRINCIPALS
None scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

WEDNESDAY
PRINCIPALS
None scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

THURSDAY
PRINCIPALS
VPOTUS-New York, NY
FLOTUS-Santa Fe, NM

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

FRIDAY
PRINCIPALS
None scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

SATURDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

SUNDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

Upcoming political events

  *   5/24/2016 - Washington Republican Primary
  *   6/4/2016 - Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus
  *   6/5/2016 - Puerto Rico Democratic Primary
  *   6/7/2016 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries and North Dakota Democratic Caucus
  *   6/14/2016 - DC Democratic Primary

Upcoming state party events

*         5/23/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Sussex County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/24/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/25/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/26/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/28/2016 - 5/29/2016 - Hawaii Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - Nellie Tayloe Ross Diner

ELECTION CLIPS

2016 - Presidential

Democratic Party Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton Now Loses to Trump in Polls. Bernie Sanders Beats Trump by 10.8 Points.<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/hillary-clinton-now-loses_b_10102664.html>

Donald Trump, the man viewed to be the reincarnation of Hitler by some people, beats Hillary Clinton in three out of five national polls. The former Secretary of State is now losing to Donald Trump, in an average of polls, by .2 points. Although a bit more optimistic, HuffPost Pollster shows Clinton only up by 1.6 points over Trump. On April 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton was up by around 10 points, and on June 24th of last year, Trump trailed Clinton by about 20 points. The big issue with Clinton is that she doesn't keep polling leads, and Election Day is over five months away. In contrast, HuffPost Pollster shows Bernie Sanders defeating Trump in a general election by 10.2 points.

Why Conservatives Should Vote for Hillary Clinton<http://fortune.com/2016/05/22/conservatives-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-supreme-court/>

Republican unifiers warn that if Democrats capture the presidency, and, even more ominously, the Senate, the legislative and political mischief they will propagate may pale in comparison to the more lasting damage progressives could inflict on the judiciary. If elected, Hillary Clinton undoubtedly would appoint young progressive justices to the court in an effort to control the legal agenda long after she leaves office, but conservative voters should seriously consider voting for her anyway. The dangers a Trump presidency would pose for foreign policy (isolationism) and economic prosperity (trade wars) outweigh the constitutional distortions that would continue with a Democratic administration. Moreover, there are no guarantees that Trump would appoint a principled conservative to the court even if he were elected president.

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders' supporters sue California over primary rules<http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/23/bernie-sanders-supporters-sue-california-over-prim/>

Supporters of Sen. Bernard Sanders in California have filed a federal lawsuit to extend voter registration for the state's June 7 primary, as the Democrats' nominating fight drags on to the bitter end. The lawsuit claims election officials are not doing enough to publicize that the Democratic primary is open to independent voters, who have favored Mr. Sanders throughout his challenge to Hillary Clinton, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Bernie Loses His Halo<http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/bernie-sanders-loses-his-halo-213911>

Is the left turning on its darling, Bernie Sanders? On Friday, Netroots titan Markos Moulitsas, namesake of the liberal Daily Kos, dropped a rhetorical bomb on the Bern, blaming the candidate for doing too little to denounce death threats received by the Nevada Democratic Party after Sanders' state convention delegates complained they had received unfair treatment. "The problem isn't Bernie Sanders' supporters," Moulitsas wrote. "It's Bernie Sanders himself ... [He] refuses to forcefully and unambiguously reject that violence, instead rationalizing and explaining it away with a mix of grievances and outright conspiracy theory."

Bernie Sanders digs in<http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/23/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-2016/>

The stakes of Bernie Sanders' take-it-to-the-convention strategy are rapidly rising as fresh polls underscore Hillary Clinton's vulnerabilities and predict a tight race between her and Donald Trump in the fall. After months of talk about the potential of a contested Republican convention, Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, is quickly consolidating his party's support -- something Clinton is unable to do with Sanders still in the race.

Bernie Sanders Steps Up Feud With Democratic Establishment<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-democratic-party_us_5742273ee4b045cc9a7143f8>

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders cranked up his fight with party leaders on Sunday, backing a challenger to the Democratic National Committee's chairwoman and accusing the party's establishment of trying to anoint Hillary Clinton as the nominee for president. In a series of television interviews, Sanders remained defiant despite what he acknowledged was an uphill fight to overtake front-runner Clinton.

Republican Party Candidates

Donald Trump

Taking Trump seriously: His jump in polls against Hillary changes the media mindset<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/20/taking-trump-seriously-his-jump-in-polls-against-hillary-changes-media-mindset.html>

Suddenly, abruptly, the press is viewing Donald Trump as a potential president. The business that gave him no chance of winning the nomination, which remained in denial for months as he dispatched his GOP rivals, which has been operated under the assumption that Hillary Clinton will clobber him, is starting to change its tune. And it's all because of a couple of polls.

Donald Trump denies climate change--but fears it could hurt his golf course<http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-denies-climate-change-but-wants-to-protect-one-of-his-golf-courses-from-effects/>
Donald Trump has said he doesn't believe in man-made climate change and has called global warming a "hoax," but he's trying to protect a golf course he owns on the coast of Ireland from its effects. The presumptive GOP nominee applied for a permit to build a seawall next to Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland in County Clare to prevent erosion, according to Politico. His application included an environmental impact statement that explicitly mentions "global warming and its effects." According to Politico's report, that statement says that rising sea levels in that region could accelerate erosion. The statement cited a study by the Irish government predicting a steady rate of erosion through 2050, but the statement says that the study failed to take climate change into consideration.

In Swing State Suburbs, White Women Are Skeptical of Donald Trump<http://fortune.com/2016/05/23/white-women-donald-trump/>
For Donald Trump to win the White House in November, he'll need the votes of women like Elizabeth Andrus. Yet Andrus, a registered Republican from Delaware, Ohio, sees "buffoonery" in the presumptive Republican nominee and says "I am not on the Trump train." With all the trouble in the world, she went on, "you just don't want Donald Trump as president." Her negative impression of Trump was shared by most of the dozens of white, suburban women from politically important states who were interviewed by The Associated Press this spring. Their views are reflected in opinion polls, such as a recent AP-GfK survey that found 70% of women have unfavorable opinions of Trump.

Donald Trump's 'shady' support for veterans<http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/donald-trumps-shady-support-veterans>
When Democrats make the case that Donald Trump has a controversial background when it comes to veterans' issues, it's not just wishful thinking. The presumptive Republican nominee, for example, has drawn criticism for supporting a privatization plan for veterans' care. His associations with the sketchy Veterans for a Strong America exacerbated the problem. And it certainly didn't help matters when Trump, who avoided military service during the Vietnam War, said he "felt" like he'd served in the military because his parents sent him to a military-themed boarding school as a teenager. The Republican went so far as to boast that his expensive prep school gave him "more training militarily than a lot of the guys that go into the military." Making matters much worse are new questions about Trump and veterans-related fundraising.

Juan Williams: Electoral map looks grim for Trump<http://thehill.com/opinion/juan-williams/280768-juan-williams-electoral-map-looks-grim-for-trump>
Donald Trump is getting good news in the polls. Last week, a Fox News poll saw him take a 3-point lead over Hillary Clinton in a national survey. That's within the margin of error. But step back and take the long view. Clinton led by seven points in April. If this is a horse race, Trump is clearly coming on fast. Even after last week's surprising polls, Clinton still led in the RealClearPolitics nationwide average by 3 points as of last Friday. But that makes the race a toss-up - her big lead is gone.

V/r,

Elias Gonzalez | Political Staff Assistant |  Veterans Outreach Desk
Democratic National Committee
O: (202) 488-5006 | C: (202) 657-1649
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