Subject: Daily Political Guidance -- Wednesday, May 4
From: "Moore, Colby" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 May 2016 10:07:01 -0700

This email is intended to provide a brief summary of key Political Department priorities, including recent news and principal travel.  It includes the following components:

  *   Recent News
  *   Polls
  *   Upcoming Principal & Staff Travel
  *   Upcoming Political Events
  *   Upcoming State Party Events
  *   Election Clips

RECENT NEWS\

*         Indiana Primary Results

o   Republican Presidential - Trump 53.3%, Cruz 36.7%, Kasich 7.5%

o   Democratic Presidential - Sanders 52.7%, Clinton 47.3%

o   Republican Senatorial - Young 67.0%, Stutzman 33.0%

o   Democratic 3rd District - Schrader 37.5%, Nightenhelser 31.8%, Roberson 30.7%

o   Republican 3rd District - Banks 34.3%, Tom 31.5%, Brown 24.8%

o   Republican 9th District - Hollingsworth 33.5%, Houchin 25.0%, Zoeller 21.9%

*         President Barack Obama will hear first-hand Wednesday how residents of Flint<http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politics/obama-flint-michigan-visit/index.html>, Michigan, have endured their city's water crisis, traveling there as a reassurance that the federal government isn't ignoring the community's plight.

*         Ohio Governor John Kasich canceled his planned press conference and finance events<http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278675-kasich-cancels-dc-area-event-stoking-speculation-hell> in the DC area today and now plans to address the media in Ohio later this afternoon. The cancelation has stoked speculation in the media that Kasich may drop out of the race today.

POLLS

*         NY - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +26 Clinton (Siena, 5/3)<https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/passing-new-laws-to-address-corruption-in-state-government-is-voters-top-en>

*         NY - Senatorial - Long (R) vs. Schumer (D) - +40 Schumer (Siena, 5/3)<https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/passing-new-laws-to-address-corruption-in-state-government-is-voters-top-en>

*         WV - Presidential - Republican Primary - +39 Trump (PPP, 5/3)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WV_50316.pdf>

*         WV - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +8 Sanders (PPP, 5/3)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WV_50316.pdf>

*         WV - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +27 Trump (PPP, 5/3)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WV_50316.pdf>

*         WV - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +21 Trump (PPP, 5/3)<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WV_50316.pdf>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +13 Clinton (CNN/ORC, 5/4)<http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/05/04/rel6b.-.2016.general.pdf>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +16 Sanders (CNN/ORC, 5/4)<http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/05/04/rel6b.-.2016.general.pdf>

Upcoming PRINCIPAL AND Staff Travel

TODAY
PRINCIPALS
POTUS - Flint, MI
DWS - New York, NY

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Fairfax, VA

THURSDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - Philadelphia, PA

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

FRIDAY
PRINCIPALS
DWS - Philadelphia, PA & Delaware

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Columbus & Cleveland, OH

SATURDAY
PRINCIPALS
VPOTUS - Dover, DE

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
Amy Dacey - Columbus & Cleveland, OH

SUNDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

Upcoming political events

  *   5/7/2016 - Guam Primary
  *   5/10/2016 - West Virginia Primary and Nebraska Republican Primary
  *   5/17/2016 - Oregon Primary and Kentucky Democratic Primary
  *   5/24/2016 - Washington Republican Primary
  *   6/4/2016 - Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus
  *   6/5/2016 - Puerto Rico Democratic Caucus
  *   6/7/2016 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries and North Dakota Democratic Caucus
  *   6/14/2016 - DC Democratic Primary

Upcoming state party events

*         5/5/2016 - DC Democratic Party - Central Committee Meeting

*         5/6/2016 - 5/7/2016 - Maine Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/7/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Jackson Day Fundraiser

*         5/7/2016 - Connecticut Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/7/2016 - Louisiana Democratic Party - POWER UP 2016 Training

*         5/7/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party - Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/7/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Delegate Selection Caucus

*         5/9/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Kent County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/11/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - "How to be a State and National Delegate" Webinar

*         5/12/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/12/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/13/2016 - 5/15/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Convention and Auction

*         5/14/2016 - Nevada Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/14/2016 - Georgia Democratic Party - PLEO Level Delegate Elections

*         5/15/2016 - Maine Democratic Party - State Committee Meeting

*         5/17/2016 - Virginia Democratic Party - Tech Community Fundraiser

*         5/17/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Democratic Leadership Reception

*         5/18/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - New Castle County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/19/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/20/2016 - Mississippi Democratic Party - JJ Hamer Dinner

*         5/21/2016 - Mississippi Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/21/2016 - Maryland Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/21/2016 - Michigan Democratic Party - Congressional District Conventions

*         5/21/2016 - Kentucky Democratic Party - County/Legislative District Caucuses

*         5/21/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Presidential Preference Pre-Primary Caucus

*         5/21/2016 - North Carolina Democratic Party - District Conventions

*         5/21/2016 - Washington Democratic Party - Congressional District Caucuses

*         5/21/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party - Jackson County Truman Days

*         5/22/2016 - Vermont Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/22/2016 - 5/23/2016 - New York Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/23/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Sussex County Executive Committee Meeting

*         5/24/2016 - Tennessee Democratic Party - Women's Event

*         5/25/2016 - Alaska Democratic Party - State Central Committee Meeting

*         5/26/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - VAN Webinar

*         5/28/2016 - 5/29/2016 - Hawaii Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - State Convention

*         5/28/2016 - Wyoming Democratic Party - Nellie Tayloe Ross Diner

ELECTION CLIPS

2016 - Presidential

Democratic Party Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by Double Digits in New National Poll<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-double-digits-national/story?id=38865827>

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton leads Republican front-runner Donald Trump by double digits in a new CNN-ORC national poll as the 2016 race turns toward the general election. Clinton earns 54 percent support while Trump garners 41 percent support. The numbers come as Trump's main rival, Sen. Ted Cruz, dropped out of the race, virtually clearing the way for Trump to clinch the nomination. Clinton's delegate lead over rival Sen. Bernie Sanders is also nearly insurmountable, despite her loss in Indiana Tuesday.

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders celebrates Indiana win, criticizes closed primaries<http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/05/04/bernie-sanders-vows-fight-every-vote-criticizes-closed-primaries/83826570/>

Sen. Bernie Sanders said his 5-point win in Indiana's Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday will help him "pull off one of the great political upsets in the history of the United States." Sanders acknowledged that his path to the nomination is "narrow," but pledged to fight for every vote. He called on Clinton to debate him in delegate-rich California, where he said he will hold large rallies ahead of the state's primary in June. Sanders said he has enough money to fund a winning campaign for the remaining contests. One problem for Sanders, though, is that only four of the remaining Democratic nominating contests are open or semi-open to independents, who largely favor Sanders. In Indiana's primary, which also was open, 72% of independent voters surveyed in a CNN exit poll said they supported Sanders.

Republican Party Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz's epic downfall: How the Texas senator took Donald Trump to the brink - and then watched it all fall apart<http://www.salon.com/2016/05/04/ted_cruzs_epic_downfall_how_the_texas_senator_took_donald_trump_to_the_brink_and_then_watched_it_all_fall_apart/>

It seems strange to say this about the man who, until last night, was one of the last three people standing in a Republican presidential primary that has come to resemble a cross between "Rollerball" and Insult Night at the local Chuckle Hut, but Ted Cruz was always a terrible candidate for the GOP nomination. Over the past couple of weeks, Cruz's ineptness has already become crystal clear. As his campaign has imploded, he has flailed harder and harder in search of some game-changing moment to keep him going. He made noise about a contested convention and worked hard to plant his loyalists among the state delegations that will vote for the nominee in Cleveland, even as voters were telling him they hate that idea. He selected Carly Fiorina as a vice-presidential running mate, a move so desperate it's a wonder that every TV in America didn't start leaking flop sweat whenever images of the two together appeared on their screens.

John Kasich

John Kasich suspending campaign: Source to NBC News<http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/john-kasich-campaign-latest-news.html>

Ohio Gov. John Kasich has cancelled a planned event to make a Wednesday night statement in Ohio, NBC reported. Kasich was left the only man standing against Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary race after Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas suspended his run on Tuesday night. Trump won a resounding victory on Tuesday night in Indiana, taking all 57 of the state's GOP delegates, according to NBC. In response, Cruz suspended his run, concluding that he had there was no longer a "viable path" to his becoming the Republican standard-bearer in the general election.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump needs a running mate: Here are four names for him to consider<http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/05/04/donald-trump-needs-running-mate-here-are-four-names-for-him-to-consider.html>

Will Donald Trump ever be "presidential" in the conventional manner we have come to expect? It's a path he may never follow. But after his victory in Indiana on Tuesday night, and Ted Cruz's decision to suspend his campaign, there is now rampant speculation as to what "presidential" will mean should Trump's executive desk move to the Oval Office. As with any presidential nominee, the selection of their vice presidential running mate is important because it offers us a window into their thinking.  Trump recently gave some insight into his thoughts on the matter when he told Neil Cavuto on the Fox Business Network: "I would want to choose a politician. I'm a businessman. I don't think we need two guys like me." Here are four individuals who may very well get the call from the presumptive GOP nominee: U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, U.S. Representative Jim Jordan, and Kobe Bryant.

Thanks,

Colby Moore
Executive Assistant to the National Political Director
Democratic National Committee
O: (202) 488-5044
C: (704) 430-7163
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>
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