Subject: Daily Political Guidance -- Thursday, April 28
From: "Moore, Colby" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2016 08:48:37 -0700

This email is intended to provide a brief summary of key Political Department priorities, including recent news and principal travel.  It includes the following components:

  *   Recent News
  *   Polls
  *   Upcoming Principal & Staff Travel
  *   Upcoming Political Events
  *   Upcoming State Party Events
  *   Election Clips

RECENT NEWS\

*         For months, Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R) has had questions about the federal government's refugee resettlement program. And, for months, he says he has failed to get satisfactory answers. So, this week, he announced that he's pulling out of the program altogether.<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/04/27/kansas-gov-brownback-turns-away-refugees-over-security-concerns/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202>

*         Former Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear (D) accused the current Governor, Matt Bevin (R), of abusing power<http://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article74176237.html> by personally bullying university presidents into signing a letter agreeing to budget cuts and intimidating state workers into signing letters accusing the Beshear administration of wrongdoing. This comes after Bevin accused the former administration of corruption. Beshear also noted that the FBI might be investigating allegations that Bevin tried to force Democratic House members to switch to the Republican Party by threatening to cancel road projects in their districts.

*         Rep. Pat Tiberi<http://www.marionstar.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/27/tiberi-eyes-senate-bid-2018/83550220/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202> is actively considering a Senate bid in the next election cycle, according to two sources close to the central-Ohio Republican. In a statement Tuesday, Tiberi, R-Genoa Township, said he is focused on winning an eighth term in the House this year, but he did not deny his interest in a future statewide run.

POLLS

*         US - Public Approval of Health Care Law - +10 Against/Oppose (Pew Research, 4/26)<http://www.people-press.org/2016/04/27/more-americans-disapprove-than-approve-of-health-care-law/>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +5 Approve (Gallup, 4/27)<http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +3 Approve (Rasmsusen, 4/27)<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +6 Disapprove (The Economist/YouGov, 4/27)<https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iy6gsf35t3/trackingreport.pdf>

*         US - Congressional Job Approval - +55 Disapprove (The Economist/YouGov, 4/27)<https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iy6gsf35t3/trackingreport.pdf>

*         US - Direction of Country - +41 Wrong Track (The Economist/YouGov, 4/27)<https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iy6gsf35t3/trackingreport.pdf>

Upcoming PRINCIPAL AND Staff Travel

TODAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

FRIDAY
PRINCIPALS
Dr. Biden - Pensacola, FL

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

SATURDAY
PRINCIPALS
Dr. Biden - Newport News, VA

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

SUNDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

Upcoming political events

  *   5/3/2016 - Indiana Primary
  *   5/7/2016 - Guam Caucus
  *   5/10/2016 - West Virginia Primary and Nebraska Republican Primary
  *   5/17/2016 - Oregon Primary and Kentucky Democratic Primary
  *   5/24/2016 - Washington Republican Primary
  *   6/4/2016 - Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus
  *   6/5/2016 - Puerto Rico Democratic Primary
  *   6/7/2016 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries and North Dakota Democratic Caucus
  *   6/14/2016 - DC Democratic Primary

Upcoming state party events

*         4/28/2016  - Maryland Democratic Party  - Statewide Unity Rally

*         4/28/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party -Delegation Selection Congressional District Meetings

*         4/28/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - "How to be a State and National Delegate" Webinar

*         4/28/2016 - DC Democratic Party - Kennedy King Awards Program & Reception

*         4/29/2016 - Utah Democratic Party - National Delegate Meeting

*         4/30/2016 - Georgia Democratic Party  - State Committee Meeting

*         4/30/2016 - Hawaii Democratic Party - Hawaii Island County Committee Convention

*         4/30/2016 - South Dakota Democratic Party - McGovern Day Dinner

*         4/30/2016 - Michigan Democratic Party - Jefferson-Jackson Dinner

ELECTION CLIPS

2016 - Presidential

Democratic Party Candidates

Bernie Sanders
What Bernie Sanders wants<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/what-bernie-sanders-wants-222561>

Quietly acknowledging that a direct path to the Democratic nomination is all but blocked, Bernie Sanders and his advisers are zeroing in on making policy changes to the party platform and reforming the presidential nominating process. The Vermont senator and his closest aides have been considering convention end-game scenarios for months, and they have already been in contact with the Democratic National Convention's organizers to talk through the logistics of July's party gathering in Philadelphia. But after Clinton's muscular wins in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut and Delaware on Tuesday, Sanders' team has turned to the task of pulling Clinton and the party platform to the left in the time before the convention.

Republican Party Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Unveils a Campaign Surprise, but It May Not Be Enough<http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/28/ted-cruz-unveils-a-campaign-surprise-but-it-may-not-be-enough/?_r=0>

The "Stop Trump" movement is getting a new look as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has taken the highly unusual step of picking an early running mate as he looks to block Donald J. Trump from winning the Republican nomination. Mr. Cruz and his vice-presidential hopeful, Carly Fiorina, will hit the campaign trail and make three stops together in Indiana, creating a spectacle so rare for this stage of an election that it could steal some of the spotlight that tends to shine brightest on Mr. Trump. But will Mrs. Fiorina matter? Perhaps. At a time when Mr. Trump has injected gender politics into the campaign by accusing Hillary Clinton of playing the "woman's card," Mr. Cruz, his leading Republican rival, has joined forces with someone who highlights Mr. Trump's weakness with female voters and relishes skewering him. She also offers voters a preview of what a diverse Republican general election ticket could look like.

John Kasich

John Kasich Loses on Terrain He'd Hoped to be Friendly<http://www.wsj.com/articles/john-kasichs-northeast-defeats-mark-turning-point-for-gop-1461798514>

For months, as Ohio Gov. John Kasich trailed in the GOP presidential race, his aides and supporters said his moment would come when the campaign moved into the more-moderate Northeast. The five states that voted Tuesday were thought to harbor large pockets of voters drawn to Mr. Kasich's strain of solutions-oriented conservatism. But GOP voters<http://www.wsj.com/articles/northeast-primaries-set-up-republican-candidates-for-home-stretch-1461709702> in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island instead sided overwhelmingly with frontrunner Donald Trump. The results weren't just bad news for Mr. Kasich's struggling presidential campaign. They marked a turning point for a fading brand of Republicanism. A recent Kasich strategy memo singled out 11 congressional districts in Maryland and Connecticut where he hoped to beat Mr. Trump. In Maryland, "our data show that Trump could lose to Kasich in almost any district" but one on the state's Eastern Shore, the memo said.

Donald Trump

Can Donald Trump avoid a contested convention?<http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/donald-trump-republican-nomination/>
Donald Trump is facing a critical test in the final six weeks of the primary season: securing the 1,237 delegates needed to finally claim the Republican presidential nomination as his own. The prospect of a historic contested convention has surrounded Trump's candidacy for months. But Trump is much closer to winning the nomination outright following his resounding victories in Tuesday's East Coast primaries, which boosted his delegate count to at least 988 compared to 568 for his chief rival, Ted Cruz. Trump needs to win 50% of the remaining Republican delegates to capture the nomination, according to CNN estimates. He's been winning delegates so far at a rate of 50%, making that target well within reach.

2016 - Senate

Arizona

Fundraiser for John McCain busted for running meth lab<http://nypost.com/2016/04/28/fundraiser-for-john-mccain-busted-for-running-meth-lab/>

A Phoenix woman has been dropped as a political fundraiser for U.S. Sen. John McCain's re-election campaign after being arrested on suspicion of drug possession and other charges. Emily Pitha and her live-in boyfriend were taken into custody Tuesday after deputies served a search warrant at her north-central Phoenix home, Maricopa County Sheriff's officials said. Christopher Hustrulid allegedly signed for a package containing more than 250 grams of Ecstasy. Undercover detectives and U.S. Postal Inspectors raided the home after the delivery, according to sheriff's officials.

California

Barbara Boxer is no fan of the Cruz-Fiorina ticket<http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/27/politics/barbara-boxer-ted-cruz-carly-fiorina-2016-election/>
After GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz announced Wednesday that Carly Fiorina will be his running mate, Sen. Barbara Boxer took to Twitter to rip the pair, calling them "mean" and "meaner." The California Democrat, who has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, has a history with the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive -- she defeated Fiorina in 2010 to keep her Senate seat. After the announcement, Boxer tweeted that Cruz "talks tough on Iran, but his 'running mate' was soft on Iran when she skirted the law to sell them computer parts."

Colorado

Sen. Bennet challengers: Restore energy industry<http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/sen-bennet-challengers-8232restore-energy-industry>

The four Republicans - termed a "rainbow coalition" by one of them - still in the race for the party's U.S. Senate nomination sounded similar themes in a forum Wednesday at Colorado Mesa University. Robert Blaha, a Colorado Springs businessman; former Aurora City Councilor Ryan Frazier; El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn; and former Colorado State University Athletic Director Jack Graham answered questions for two hours before about 100 people, in a forum sponsored by the university's Republican club. The four joined together on several themes, among them restoring the energy industry on the Western Slope and the rest of the state, eliminating or reducing the federal role in education, promising to change the Iran nuclear deal, and the necessity of defeating the incumbent, Democrat Michael Bennet. The railroad track through downtown Grand Junction, where hundreds of locomotives are stacked awaiting a change in the national economy, is "an absolute travesty," Blaha said. "We need oil, gas and coal back in Colorado and we need it now." Blaha is seeking to petition his way onto the June primary ballot, as is Frazier.

Florida

Alan Grayson-David Jolly Debate Draws 81,000 Live Viewers, 186,000+ Since<http://floridapolitics.com/archives/208035-alan-grayson-david-jolly-debate-draws-81000-live-viewers-186000-since>

U.S. Reps. Alan Grayson and David Jolly drew 81,000 live viewers for their internet-webcast U.S. Senate debate Monday night plus another 186,000 and counting views on the YouTube post of the video. In addition, at least 41 TV stations appeared to have taken video clips or otherwise covered the debate as a news story. Whether that's enough to make an impact in their respective races, in which Grayson is seeking the Democratic primary nomination and Jolly the Republican, may not yet be easy to measure. The primary opponents for Grayson and Jolly were critical of the debate. But the group that organized the debate is expressing glee over the viewership. "It went just as well as we could have possibly imagined," said Lilia Tamm, program coordinator for the Open Debate Coalition.

Georgia

Georgia's party-backed Democratic Senate candidate comes out of the shadows<http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/04/28/georgias-party-backed-democratic-senate-candidate-comes-out-of-the-shadows/>
Jim Barksdale has maintained a curiously quiet persona<http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/03/22/the-curious-silence-of-the-party-backed-democrat-running-for-u-s-senate/> since joining the race to unseat Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson more than a month ago. A virtual unknown in Georgia's political world, the Democratic Party's hand-picked favorite to topple Isakson had said nary a word to the media and kept a low profile around the state. Barksdale broke his public silence in an interview Wednesday in his Buckhead office, pledging to run as an outsider who will seize on familiar themes of economic distress in Georgia and stifling gridlock in Washington to make his case. The investment manager pointed to the more than $1 million he's already pumped into his campaign as evidence he'll have the resources he needs to compete against Isakson, a popular incumbent sitting on a mountain of cash as he seeks a third term in office.

Indiana

In Indiana, the deal to stop Trump may be backfiring<http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-indiana-gop-fddc7e46-0d25-11e6-bc53-db634ca94a2a-20160428-story.html>

The silence in the parking lot of the Hamilton County fairgrounds is pierced only by a few songbirds, the ringing echo of a halyard slapping against a flagpole, and the gravel crunching beneath the footsteps of John Kasich's frustrated supporters. A stream of voters arrived at the suburban Indianapolis fairgrounds on Tuesday to see the Republican presidential candidate, unaware the event had been canceled. They hadn't heard that Kasich scotched the appearance and ceded the state to Ted Cruz, calculating that the Texas senator had the best chance here of slowing down Donald Trump and saving his resources for other states.

Maryland

House Candidate David Trone Spent $12 Million to Finish Second in Maryland Primary<http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/04/27/house-candidate-david-trone-spent-12-million-to-finish-second-in-maryland-primary/>

Even $12 million was not enough to win a Democratic primary for a House seat from Maryland. Total Wine & More founder David Trone came in second Tuesday night to state Sen. Jamie Raskin in the Democratic contest to succeed Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the House, even after spending an unprecedented sum in the crowded primary. Mr. Trone's $12 million investment was a record for a self-funding House candidate at least as far back as the 1990 election, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

Pennsylvania

Spending in Pennsylvania Senate Race Ramps Up After Primary<http://www.wsj.com/articles/spending-in-pennsylvania-senate-race-ramps-up-after-primary-1461791493>

Outside groups jumped into the battle over Pennsylvania's Senate seat Wednesday, signaling the immediate start of a fierce partisan contest one day after Democrat Katie McGinty won the primary to take on incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. Hours after the expensive, hard-fought Democratic primary ended, national groups began ramping up spending in one of the handful of battleground states whose Senate races will determine which party controls the chamber after November's elections.

2016 - Governors

Indiana

Trump: Gov. Pence Likely to Stay Out of Presidential Race<http://www.weeklystandard.com/trump-gov.-pence-likely-to-stay-out-of-presidential-race/article/2002138>

On Wednesday, Donald Trump told CNN's Chris Cuomo that he likes Indiana governor Mike Pence, but he doesn't expect his endorsement. Cuomo asked Trump, "How about Mike Pence? Have you reached out for the governor's endorsement yet?" Trump affirmed. "Yes, the governor's a great guy. I met with him. He may not endorse. I don't think he'll endorse anybody, actually, and he may endorse us. I don't know. He's a great guy. He's become-you know, he's done a very, very good job as governor and he's a great guy. I don't know if we'll get his endorsement. I don't know."

Montana

MT gubernatorial candidate Gianforte wants to cut taxes, improve wages<http://www.kpax.com/story/31736425/mt-gubernatorial-candidate-gianforte-wants-to-cut-taxes-improve-wages>

The man running to replace Montana Governor Steve Bullock stopped by the MTN studios in Missoula on Friday morning. Bozeman's Greg Gianforte touted his business experience in calling for lower taxes and how to improve wages in the Treasure State. "We have overcharged Montanans...I firmly believe that jobs and opportunities are only created in the private sector. So we have to lower taxes on all Montanans." One tax change he's been advocating for is the elimination of the business equipment tax, calling it a "particularly regressive" tax. "It's chasing businesses out of the state and it's also preventing businesses here from expanding - and it's not just the big businesses, it's all businesses."

New Hampshire

Van Ostern hires Devney to run gubernatorial campaign<http://www.unionleader.com/Van_Ostern_hires_Pat_Devney_to_run_campaign_for_governor>

Colin Van Ostern has hired a familiar face - and one with a recent New Hampshire election victory on his resume - to manage his gubernatorial campaign.  The Executive Councilor and Democrat from Concord hired Pat Devney. He served as campaign manager for 2nd District U.S. Rep. Ann McLane Kuster's re-election in 2014.  Devney's first day on the job was Tuesday.  "It's exciting," Devney said of the governor's race. "I have a lot of respect for Colin and what he's done."

North Carolina

Roy Cooper pulls ahead in North Carolina gubernatorial race<http://wnct.com/2016/04/19/roy-cooper-pulls-ahead-in-north-carolina-gubernatorial-race/>

According to the latest Elon University poll, Democrat Roy Cooper's support is growing and took the lead, 48-42 percent among registered voters. This is Cooper's largest lead since the Elon University poll began asking respondents about a hypothetical match-up. Nearly 43-percent of registered voters said they approved of the job the attorney general is doing, compared to almost 27-percent who disapproved. 30-percent of voters were unsure. Only 37-percent of approved of Governor Pat McCrory's job, compared to 49-percent who disapproved of the way he's handling his job.

Utah

Three Utah gubernatorial candidates announce running mates<http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865652490/Three-Utah-gubernatorial-candidates-announce-running-mates.html?pg=all>

Jan Garbett changed her party affiliation from Republican to Democrat Monday before she was announced as Democrat gubernatorial candidate Vaughn Cook's running mate. The two had never met in person until Monday morning. Garbett's husband, a Republican, said he would not be changing his affiliation. "We'll be a mixed family," he said with a smile. Cook was one of three candidates for Utah governor to announce their pick for lieutenant governor Monday. "I did start out as a Democrat," Garbett said. When her husband, Bryson, ran for the state Legislature as a Republican, she changed her views. Now, she's ready to switch back because the Republican Party "is not the party of 30 years ago."

Vermont

VT Gubernatorial candidate Sue Minter announces clean water plan<http://www.wptz.com/news/vt-gubernatorial-candidate-sue-minter-announces-clean-water-plan/39030628>

As the gubernatorial election season begins Vermont's emerging water crisis is sure to be the forefront of candidate's agendas. Candidate Sue Minter is making the issue a top priority for her campaign. Thursday morning, she issued a clean water plan. On Thursday she outlined her clean water agenda. Promoting infrastructure upgrades to the tune of $25 million a year and she voiced strong support for North Bennington residents with contaminated wells. "We have the capacity to extend the safe municipal water of Bennington to North Bennington," Minter said.

Thanks,

Colby Moore
Executive Assistant to the National Political Director
Democratic National Committee
O: (202) 488-5044
C: (704) 430-7163
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>
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