Subject: Daily Political Guidance -- Monday, April 25
From: "Moore, Colby" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2016 10:09:24 -0700

This email is intended to provide a brief summary of key Political Department priorities, including recent news and principal travel.  It includes the following components:

  *   Recent News
  *   Polls
  *   Upcoming Principal & Staff Travel
  *   Upcoming Political Events
  *   Upcoming State Party Events
  *   Election Clips

RECENT NEWS\

*         If elections officials could send just one message to California's 17.2 million registered voters about the U.S. Senate<http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics-government/government/u.s.-senate-ORGOV0000134-topic.html> primary in June, it would probably be this: Read the instructions carefully<http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-senate-primary-ballot-confusion-20160425-story.html>. On primary day, the race to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer will feature 34 candidates. In most races, with a handful of candidates, names appear in a single column on one page of the voting booklet, a clear sign to voters that they should only pick one. But with 34 candidates, the geography of ballot templates tends to favor listing the names in two, side-by-side columns, on facing pages of the voting booklet. That's where the trouble lies for the Senate race, as voters could mistake the two columns as two distinct races and choose one name from each list. That would result in an "overvote," a ballot cast for two or more candidates, which is thus disqualified.

*         Last week, Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis called Gov. Bruce Rauner a "new ISIS recruit"<http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Karen-Lewis-Compares-Rauner-to-ISIS-Slams-Turn-Us-Down-Agenda-376427191.html>  -- "[b]ecause the things he's doing looks like acts of terror on poor and working class people" -- and now the Illinois Republican Party is using her statements as a fundraising tool<http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Illinois-GOP-Using-Karen-Lewis-Rauner-ISIS-Comment-as-Fundraising-Tool-376763081.html>. "Our Governor was compared to a group that murders innocent children in cold blood and sells women in to slavery," Illinois Republican Party Chairman Tim Schneider wrote in a fundraising e-mail. "Stand with Governor Rauner and tell Karen Lewis that her obscene rhetoric won't be tolerated."

*         There are red states and there are blue states. Minnesota should be a purple state, says Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Mary's Point) -- but for Princely, not political, reasons. Housley says she has drafted a bill to honor the late Minnesota artist by making purple the official state color<http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/politics/4016539-minnesota-lawmaker-drafts-bill-make-purple-official-state-color>; she will introduce it on Monday. "Twenty-three states have official colors, but we don't," Housley said. "I've always thought it should be purple, so much so that I had my Minnesota Senate ring made (in 2012) with a purple stone."

*         America's continuing debate over gay rights versus religious freedom took center stage in Missouri's gubernatorial race Sunday, with three of the four Republican candidates for governor lauding a proposed referendum<http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/candidates-for-missouri-governor-spar-over-religious-freedom-bill-in/article_226a48e3-a848-59aa-a97e-bfd2574935f0.html> to protect businesspeople who refuse to cater to same-sex marriage ceremonies.

*         Oklahoma is just a signature away from revoking the licenses of most doctors who perform abortions.<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/04/23/this-is-our-proper-function-oklahoma-advances-measure-to-revoke-licenses-of-doctors-that-perform-abortions/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202> Under a bill passed by the legislature this week, doctors who perform abortions - defined in the measure as "unprofessional conduct" - would be barred from obtaining or renewing their medical licenses.

*         Oregon's presidential primary is still more than three weeks away, but it's already clear that both major parties' contests are more relevant to the national political picture than they have been in years. In addition to a late surge in voter registration, that excitement about the races is translating into more visits by presidential candidates than would have been predicted even a few months ago. "This will easily be the most hard-fought Oregon primary<http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/04/oregon_presidential_primary_at.html#incart_river_index> in a long time," said Jim Moore, a political science professor at Pacific University in Forest Grove. "Especially on the Republican side, it's been a long, long time since one of their campaigns made it this far with any life to it."

POLLS

*         CT - Presidential - Republican Primary - +34 Trump (PPP, 4/25)<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_CT_GOP_April_2016.pdf>

*         CT - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +2 Clinton (PPP, 4/25)<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_CT_GOP_April_2016.pdf>

*         PA - Presidential - Republican Primary - +26 Trump (PPP, 4/25)<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_PA_GOP_April_2016.pdf>

*         PA - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +10 Clinton (PPP, 4/25)<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_PA_GOP_April_2016.pdf>

*         RI - Presidential - Republican Primary - +38 Trump (PPP, 4/25)<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_RI_GOP_April_2016.pdf>

*         RI - Presidential - Democratic Primary - +4 Sanders (PPP, 4/25)<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_RI_GOP_April_2016.pdf>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D) - +3 Clinton (GWU/Battleground, 4/25)<https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/americans-overwhelmingly-engaged-2016-election-tone-race-affecting-voters-new-gw-battleground-poll>

*         US - Presidential - Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D) - +10 Sanders (GWU/Battleground, 4/25)<https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/americans-overwhelmingly-engaged-2016-election-tone-race-affecting-voters-new-gw-battleground-poll>

*         US - President Obama Job Approval - +5 Approve (GWU/Battleground, 4/25)<https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll58-questionnaire.pdf>

*         US - Generic Congressional Vote - +5 Democrats (GWU/Battleground, 4/25)<https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll58-questionnaire.pdf>

*         US - Direction of Country - +40 Wrong Track (GWU/Battleground, 4/25)<https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll58-questionnaire.pdf>

Upcoming PRINCIPAL AND Staff Travel

TODAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

TUESDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

WEDNESDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

THURSDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

FRIDAY
PRINCIPALS
Dr. Biden - Pensacola, FL

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

SATURDAY
PRINCIPALS
Dr. Biden - Newport News, VA

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

SUNDAY
PRINCIPALS
None Scheduled

CEO/POLITICAL/CONSTITUENCY STAFF
None Scheduled

Upcoming political events

  *   4/26/2016 - Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island Primaries
  *   5/3/2016 - Indiana Primary
  *   5/7/2016 - Guam Primary
  *   5/10/2016 - West Virginia Primary and Nebraska Republican Primary
  *   5/17/2016 - Oregon Primary and Kentucky Democratic Primary
  *   5/24/2016 - Washington Republican Primary
  *   6/4/2016 - Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus
  *   6/5/2016 - Puerto Rico Democratic Caucus
  *   6/7/2016 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries and North Dakota Democratic Caucus
  *   6/14/2016 - DC Democratic Primary

Upcoming state party events

*         4/25/2016 - Delaware Democratic Party - Sussex Executive Committee Meeting

*         4/28/2016  - Maryland Democratic Party  - Statewide Unity Rally

*         4/28/2016 - Missouri Democratic Party -Delegation Selection Congressional District Meetings

*         4/28/2016 - Indiana Democratic Party - "How to be a State and National Delegate" Webinar

*         4/28/2016 - DC Democratic Party - Kennedy King Awards Program & Reception

*         4/29/2016 - Utah Democratic Party - National Delegate Meeting

*         4/30/2016 - Georgia Democratic Party  - State Committee Meeting

*         4/30/2016 - Hawaii Democratic Party - Hawaii Island County Committee Convention

*         4/30/2016 - South Dakota Democratic Party - McGovern Day Dinner

*         4/30/2016 - Michigan Democratic Party - Jefferson-Jackson Dinner

ELECTION CLIPS

2016 - Presidential

Democratic Party Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Long Primary Carries Costs for Hillary Clinton: Money and Time<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/22/us/politics/hillary-clinton-money.html?_r=0>

Hillary Clinton has burned through tens of millions of dollars to counter Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont in states that are unlikely to be general election battlegrounds, delaying any pivot to the general election and shrinking her potential financial advantage over the eventual Republican nominee. While Mrs. Clinton has built a significant advantage in pledged delegates over Mr. Sanders in the Democratic nominating contest, her lead has come at a significant cost. She spent more than she raised in each of the first three months of the year, according to Federal Election Commission data, including more than $12 million on ads in March alone. According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, Mrs. Clinton has spent at least $20 million on advertising in states like New York, Illinois and Massachusetts, money that could otherwise have been saved for the general election.

Bernie Sanders

$182 million: Bernie Sanders equals Hillary Clinton's campaign fundraising<http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/21/politics/2016-bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton/>

For Bernie Sanders, slow and steady wins the fundraising race. The Vermont senator began his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination last year with a sizable financial disadvantage compared to front-runner Hillary Clinton. By the end of last June, Sanders had raised just shy of $14 million for his campaign, less than a third of the $47.5 million Clinton had raised for hers. But the Sanders campaign slowly and steadily eroded the former secretary of state's fundraising advantage. Sanders slightly edged Clinton in contributions in 2015's fourth quarter, but his fundraising operation didn't kick into high gear until 2016. His campaign has outraised Clinton's every month this year by at least 50%. In March alone, "Bernie 2016" received $44.7 million in contributions, compared to $26.3 million for "Hillary for America."

Now, Sanders and Clinton are essentially even in total campaign contributions, with each campaign bringing in more than $180 million for their bids by the end of March. With the primary campaign entering its final weeks, both campaigns are spending at a frenetic pace. The Clinton campaign spent in March more than it raised in contributions, with a so-called burn rate of 107%. Sanders had a burn rate of 99% for March. For the campaign to date, the Sanders campaign has spent 91% of the money it raised, compared to 84% for the Clinton campaign.

Republican Party Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz, Facing Hard G.O.P. Path, Seeks a Good Argument<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/22/us/politics/ted-cruz-campaign.html>

Donald J. Trump says the abstruse Republican delegate system distorts the will of the people. Senator Ted Cruz says the party's nominating rules have been in place from the beginning. Mr. Cruz is right, and he may be losing the public argument anyway. With polls showing a strong preference for nominating the candidate with the most popular votes - even if he fails to secure a majority of delegates before the convention in July - Mr. Cruz has brushed up this week against an uncomfortable reality: His only road to victory is a messy one. As he slogs through a merciless stretch of the primary calendar, straining to pick off delegates from Northeastern voters who seem disinclined to embrace his hard-line conservatism, Mr. Cruz, of Texas, has appeared increasingly frustrated amid questions about his path.

John Kasich

John Kasich's Campaign Gets a Rocket Boost With Pledged Support of Astronauts<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/john-kasichs-campaign-rocket-boost-pledged-support-astronauts/story?id=38572608>

Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich stands out from his opponents with a unique set of out-of-this-world endorsements: a trio of astronauts who have thrown their support behind his White House candidacy. The endorsements were not any part of a concerted effort to nab backing from the space community - the Ohio governor has not even articulated any policy on space - but instead came about from personal connections and individual political leanings, Kasich's campaign told ABC News. Steve Oswald, who piloted two missions on the Space Shuttle Discovery in the early 1990s, said his backing last month came about when his wife, former U.S. Rep. Mary Bono (R-California), announced her own endorsement of Kasich. "She basically says he's always been a solid citizen," Oswald told ABC News.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump's More Accepting Views on Gay Issues Set Him Apart in G.O.P.<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/23/us/politics/donald-trump-gay-rights.html>

Elton John and his longtime boyfriend, David Furnish, entered a civil partnership on Dec. 21, 2005, in England under a law the country had just enacted granting recognition to same-sex couples. The congratulations poured in as the two men appeared at a joyous ceremony at Windsor Guildhall, amid a crush of paparazzi. Donald J. Trump, who had known the couple for years, took to his blog to express his excitement. "I know both of them, and they get along wonderfully. It's a marriage that's going to work," Mr. Trump wrote, adding: "I'm very happy for them. If two people dig each other, they dig each other." Mr. Trump is now the leading candidate for president in the Republican primary, which has traditionally been dominated by hopefuls eager to show how deeply conservative they are on social issues like gay rights and marriage. But Mr. Trump is far more accepting of sexual minorities than his party's leaders have been. On Thursday, he startled some Republicans by saying on NBC's "Today" show that he opposed a recently passed North Carolina law that prohibits people from using public bathrooms that do not correspond to the gender they were born with, striking down a Charlotte ordinance. Transgender people should "use the bathroom they feel is appropriate," Mr. Trump said, putting him at odds with a majority of Republicans in North Carolina.

Thanks,

Colby Moore
Executive Assistant to the National Political Director
Democratic National Committee
O: (202) 488-5044
C: (704) 430-7163
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>
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