Subject: TwentySixteen: Trump Seeks Knockout Win in Indiana
From: Karyn Bruggeman <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 2 May 2016 05:54:44 -0600

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The Lead
"Donald Trump is confidently pushing for a win Tuesday in Indiana that he argues ought to knock" Ted Cruz "out of the race." Trump "can't win enough delegates Tuesday to clinch the Republican nomination. But after his wins in five states last week, Trump no longer needs to win a majority of the remaining delegates at stake in the remaining primaries to lock up the GOP nomination." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec424040708756fa69dfca765a4ed26d246f49301ba4fdd3ddb 
AP ) "In interviews, several aides, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed growing alarm that Cruz would lose Indiana's primary on Tuesday. ... [W]ithout a win in an Indiana primary ... Cruz's shot at the nomination would significantly narrow." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec492b55d3fb5ac947068a59eddcc86242a4e36347f2047b77b 
Politico) An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows Trump leading with 49%, followed by Cruz at 34% and John Kasich at 13%. Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 50 to 46%. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec4859fd3bfb090977c5e9f50e6d0401060d878c98a6ef4e533 
NBC News )

INDIANA AIRWAVES: Cruz is airing 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec40501d6ca40571b24c8ee5435385cbc768bfe76cb4abf9895 
two new TV ads  statewide in Indiana calling Trump and Clinton "two sides of the same coin," in part for supporting laws allowing transgender individuals to use the bathroom of their choice. Cruz is also airing a 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec4f700d8f250edea84563ed86a51d67a54f1e06d9de5e3006b 
radio ad  featuring Gov. Mike Pence's (R) endorsement. (release) Pence endorsed Cruz on Friday. The anti-Trump Our Principles PAC is on air in Indiana with a 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec45a9e919dff894bd5ada4a90ca2ac1da8fe6f260a7dc10d64 
TV ad  using fictional headlines from an election day in which Clinton beats Trump in a rout. (release) The Club for Growth is also airing a 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec44657e49b7bf07eb9f61302096d4d0db5ec507ffd860a5466 
TV ad  claiming only Cruz can be trusted to repeal Obamacare. (release) 

SOFT SUPPORT FOR CRUZ: A handful of states picked GOP convention delegates over the weekend. Trump lost "about 40 of the 55 delegate slots that were up for grabs on" Saturday in Arizona, though all are bound to vote for him on a first ballot. Cruz picked up additional delegates in Virginia and Missouri, and Trump ended up with a good showing in Massachusetts, Arkansas, and Alaska. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec44f404ddd9d0c1bc47098d803756f98963addec79912b631c 
Politico) "[I]t turns out that delegates - like ordinary voters - are susceptible to shifts in public opinion. And as the gravitational pull of ... Trump's recent primary landslides draws more Republicans toward him ... Cruz's support among the party's 2,472 convention delegates is softening, threatening his hopes of preventing ... Trump's nomination by overtaking him in a floor fight. With each delegate ... Trump claims, he gets closer to the 1,237 he needs to clinch the nomination outright, and ... Cruz's chances of stopping him - even if he pulls out a victory in Tuesday's Indiana primary - shrink." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec423d385571bce8a695ffa7e6a2a21d5bb1af290d5b0da27ad 
New York Times)

VEEPSTAKE BLUES: "A remarkable range of leading Republicans, including" South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) and Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) "have been emphatic publicly or with their advisers and allies that they do not want to be considered as ... Trump's running mate. The recoiling amounts to a rare rebuke for a front-runner: Politicians usually signal that they are not interested politely through back channels, or submit to the selection process, if only to burnish their national profiles." Many are worried it would "damage their own future political prospects if they were on his ticket." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec46ad61d9109fd272d7249860a2f3286e0285b712df7ddbadb 
New York Times) Trump reportedly has "no process in place to begin vetting vice presidential contenders, according to multiple people familiar with the campaign." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec4ee3eb163ca98e122ac10aa8b2fdfdcd93e7666bfa4d8d95a 
Bloomberg)

LAST DITCH PLEA: Sanders "made an extraordinary appeal Sunday for party insiders to help deliver the nomination to him, even if he doesn't catch rival Hillary Clinton in the remaining primaries and caucuses. Addressing reporters at the National Press Club in Washington, Sanders made a public plea for Democratic superdelegates to reconsider their allegiances to Clinton. ... Sanders's pitch comes at a point in the race where even he has acknowledged a very narrow patch to winning the nomination." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec432e54472abb5b7895c177f5300e388a1d6018fd6c0dc0297 
Washington Post)

ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE: "Clinton campaign employees are being deployed to battleground states across the country, among them Ohio, Florida and Colorado. Democrats are also eyeing the possibility of making a run at traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, calculating that Trump's penchant for controversy could put minority and female voters in play." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec4f28fe34fd96dd259096c6a918146e361e93f8c548240a0f3 
AP )

NUMBER OF THE DAY: $25.8 million. The amount Sanders raised in April, down from the $46 million he raised in March. (release)

http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec42d991aeaec8e74d78bb4077e78d72b97fdba28ce53ecdd87 
Travel Tracker
Clinton will make stops in Ashland, Kentucky, and Williamson, West Virginia as part of her "Breaking Down Barriers" tour in Appalachia.

Cruz, Sanders, and Trump are in Indiana today. Sanders is holding rallies in Evansville, Fort Wayne, and Indianapolis, Indiana.

Trump has rallies scheduled in Carmel and South Bend.

Cruz will be joined by Pence at a handful of stops across the state.

Trail Mix 
"[L]ess than 1 percent of the $61 million raised by" the Hillary Victory Fund, Clinton's joint fundraising committee, "has stayed in...state parties' coffers." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec41e7fa187ee882bd6ea283b89e8a939f175ed755615447397 
Politico)

The pro-Kasich super PAC New Day for America is airing a 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec485c0970fa3efc6fa582f53148b96160f2060da7c7e548745 
TV ad  statewide in Oregon claiming Kasich can win at a contested convention because he's the only GOP candidate who could beat Clinton. (release)

"With the exception of a single congressman from Western New York, no Republican who faces a competitive gubernatorial, Senate or House election this November has endorsed Trump." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec4d832f5dab2d669f90423b54e9048291b5248663a54c44638 
FiveThirtyEight )

At the White House Correspondents Association Dinner on Saturday in Washington, D.C., President Obama suggested a new slogan for the Clinton campaign: "Trudge Up the Hill." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=c294d1f89d01aec429357b4e20c11786fce7cf40ea482e6250a7fb3ea71a0272 
Politico)

INDIANA PRIMARY: 1 day.

ELECTION DAY COUNTDOWN: 190 days.

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