Subject: Analysis: Supreme Court Obstructionism + Trump Nomination = Good-Bye GOP Senate Majority
From: Jeremy Funk <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 12 May 2016 09:32:08 -0400

http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/Good-Bye%20GOP%20Senate%20Majority.pdf

Analysis: Supreme Court Obstructionism + Trump Nomination = Good-Bye GOP Senate Majority
A wealth of swing-state and national polling has been released since Justice Scalia's death in February when Republicans launched an immediate and united front against any nominee to replace him. None of it has been positive for the GOP.
Republicans have categorically failed to win over the public with the argument that the President's term was effectively over the day Scalia died. They have failed to convince voters that the last election didn't matter and that, despite decades of precedent<http://www.vox.com/2016/2/15/10998836/supreme-court-nomination-election-year>, the Constitution makes exceptions on filling Supreme Court vacancies during election years (*when a Democrat is President). They have managed to incense Independent voters in particular for insisting Merrick Garland, the chief judge of the second most powerful court in the country with more federal judicial experience than any candidate in U.S. history, does not even deserve a hearing.
The same Republicans who so often wave a pocket Constitution as a prop to criticize the President have misled no one that their fundamental responsibilities outlined within are more of a suggestion than a job requirement.
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell's Senate majority was on life support before the vacancy became an election year issue. His decision to hold a Supreme Court seat hostage for a year or longer as "cases large and small are ending in tie votes...and fewer new cases are being granted"<http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/31/supreme-court-scalia-eight-justices-tie-votes/82435866/>, severely compounded his political problems.
Add Donald Trump to the equation, having ascended to presumptive Republican presidential nominee status, and McConnell may as well change his letterhead now to Senate Minority Leader. Trump has shown he could have the most extreme litmus test for a nominee ever. Voters will go into the booths in November wondering whether the next lifetime Supreme Court appointment could be made by someone who thinks women should be jailed for seeking an abortion, that most undocumented immigrants are 'rapists' and criminals and should all be rounded by with a "deportation force", and all Muslims should be barred from entering the country.
Based on Trump's own dangerous and unapologetic campaign promises, it's no surprise that a national Public Policy Polling survey found<http://aufc.3cdn.net/b3f0af6ecdf090a89a_iim6bnlvy.pdf> this week that 53% of voters don't trust him to pick the new Justice, compared to only 38% who do. The same poll found that by a 58/37 margin, Americans want the Supreme Court seat to be filled this year.  But what should really keep vulnerable Republicans up at night is the finding that 50% of voters say they'd be less likely to vote for a Senator who opposed having confirmation hearings, compared to only 18% who say that the obstructionist stance is the right stance.
Swing-state Republican Senators who enable McConnell's nakedly political scheme to hand Trump the appointment might as well start checking the K Street want ads now. But perhaps that was McConnell's plan all along.  Maybe he's sick of pretending to govern as Majority Leader and is willing to offer up some sacrificial lambs to return to Minority Leader and a familiar and easy role of just saying 'No' to everything without offering any alternative.
While Democrats need only a net gain of 5 Senate seats to reclaim the majority, at least 6 Republican incumbents from states President Obama won in 2012 are already hemorrhaging voters after signing the McConnell Supreme Court political suicide pact:
Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

?  Grassley has made himself a poster child for Republican Supreme Court gamesmanship with his truly unprecedented 'no hearings allowed' position. He is already paying a price. In July 2015, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Senator Grassley's approval rating was at an untouchable 68 percent, with only 21 percent disapproving.

?  More recently in January, Public Policy Polling put Grassley's rating at 50 percent approval and 34 percent disapproval, while beating potential Democratic opponents by 25-points. However, when PPP returned to Iowa<http://aufc.3cdn.net/a80240cb6b2d3e9830_2vm6bnjvl.pdf> in March after Scalia's death, Grassley's approval rating slipped to 47 percent and his disapproval rating jumped 10 points to 44 percent after losing a huge amount of crossover support from Democrats over his Supreme Court intransigence. More worrisome for Grassley, his 53-24 rating among independents in January had plummeted to 43-42. Meanwhile, 56 percent of Iowans said they want the Supreme Court seat to be filled this year, and 45 percent of respondents said they'd be less likely to vote for Grassley given his rank partisanship.

?  Most recently, a Hart Research Associates survey<http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Me-WN9-IA.pdf> of Iowa voters April 22 to 24 found:

?  By a margin of 57 percent to 35 percent, Iowa voters say the Senate should hold hearings and give Chief Judge Garland an up-or-down-vote.

?  When told about Senator Grassley's position on not allowing a hearing for Chief Judge Garland, 55 percent of voters have a negative reaction. 59 percent of independents view Senator Grassley's position negatively.
?  60 percent of voters, including 63 percent of independents, agree with the conclusion that Senator Grassley is letting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell dictate the Senate Republican position on Chief Judge Garland's nomination, rather than acting as a leader as chairman of the Judiciary Committee.
?  44 percent of all Iowa voters said they are less likely to support Senator Grassley in his re-election bid this year as a result of his position to not grant Chief Judge Garland a fair hearing.
?  One in five voters who otherwise might be inclined to support Grassley indicates that this issue could drive them away from him, and half of undecided voters also say this issue would make them less likely to be with Grassley in November.

?  At least 29 newspaper editorials<http://www.judgingtheenvironment.org/press/pr/MERRICK-GARLAND-MORE-THAN-500-EDITORIALS-BY-EDITORIAL-BOARDS-IN-49-STATES-DC-URGE-SENATE-HEARING.html> have been published in Iowa calling on Grassley to get on with his job and hold hearings for Merrick Garland.

?  Recent Local News Headline: KCRQ, May 3, 2016: Iowans, President Obama call for Sen. Grassley to hold Supreme Court hearing<http://www.kcrg.com/content/news/Iowans-President-Obama-call-for-Sen-Grassley-to-hold-Supreme-Court-hearing-378036481.html>
Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)

?  A Gravis Marketing/One America News<http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/gravis-marketing-one-america-news-23536> head-to-head poll between Senator Ayotte and Gov. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) conducted in January before Scalia's death found Ayotte leading by 7 points, 49-42.  In late February, a UNH/WMUR<http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/unh-wmur-23977> poll showed that lead slipped by 3 points to 45-41, with 10 percent undecided.

?  But, more recently, a WMUR Granite State Poll<http://www.wmur.com/politics/-wmur-poll-in-senate-race-its-ayotte-43-percent-hassan-42-percent-a-virtual-tossup/39125918> conducted April 7-17 shows Ayotte leading only leading Hassan by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent favoring someone else and 10 undecided. According to WMUR: "The survey center called the senator's position on the Supreme Court issue "one possible reason for Ayotte's declining popularity." The poll found that 60 percent of likely voters believe the Senate should hold a hearing and vote on Garland, while 34 percent agreed with the GOP position that the Senate should wait for the next president to be elected. 55 percent of independents and 85 percent of Democrats favor an immediate hearing and vote on Garland. And 40 percent of likely voters said Ayotte's position on Garland and the court vacancy has made them less likely to vote for her."

?  A Public Policy Polling survey<http://aufc.3cdn.net/ded7b95250a6ff3725_pgm6b9ttk.pdf> conducted in February found 59 percent of voters in New Hampshire think that the vacant SCOTUS seat should be filled this year, while only 36 percent say to wait after the election. What really stands out is the strong mandate (60/33) from independent voters for filling the seat. Ayotte's refusal to consider any nominee is hurting her reelection prospects, with 51 percent of voters saying they're less likely to vote for her over her do-nothing stance, compared to only 26 percent who say they're more likely to vote for her. Her position is particularly damaging with independents, with 57 percent in New Hampshire saying obstructionism turns them off from voting for Ayotte.

?  At least 11 newspaper editorials<http://www.judgingtheenvironment.org/press/pr/MERRICK-GARLAND-MORE-THAN-500-EDITORIALS-BY-EDITORIAL-BOARDS-IN-49-STATES-DC-URGE-SENATE-HEARING.html> in New Hampshire have called on Ayotte to buck her party leadership and support hearings for Garland.
Rob Portman (R-OH)

?  Via the Cleveland Plain Dealer, May 11, 2016<http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/05/strickland_portman_neck_and_ne.html>: "A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday<https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/soh05112016_crosstabs_S28whtr.pdf> shows Strickland with 43 percent support, while Portman has 42 percent. ... The survey also shows 56 percent of Ohioans believe the U.S. Senate should consider the nomination of Merrick Garland to the U.S. Supreme Court. Republicans, including Portman<http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/04/sen_rob_portman_unmoved_after.html>, have declined to act on Garland's nomination, saying the choice should be left to the next president. Twenty-seven percent of those surveyed said Portman's stance on the court pick makes it less likely they will support him. Fifteen percent said they would be more likely to vote for him over the issue."

*         The Quinnipiac poll largely mirrored a Hart Research Associates survey<http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Ohio-Poll-Key-Findings-4.15.16-2.pdf> of Ohio voters from April 5 to 7, which found:

?  By 57% to 37%, voters want Senate Republicans to hold hearings and take a vote on Judge Garland. Those who have a strong opinion on the matter favor hearings and a vote by a margin of two to one.

?  Swing voters-those with no strong partisan affiliations-are even more likely than the broader electorate to favor hearings, and do so by 61% to 32%.

?  Voters express strong disapproval of the Republican leadership's position when reminded that it came out against considering any Obama nominee immediately after Justice Scalia's death and has followed through on that by refusing to consider Merrick Garland's nomination. Overall, 66% disapprove, including a majority who strongly disapprove. Among swing voters, 74% disapprove of the stand the Republican leadership has taken.

?  Rob Portman and Ted Strickland are essentially tied in the U.S. Senate race (47% Portman, 45% Strickland), but Portman's support is exceptionally soft. Only 28% of those who are currently for Portman say they support him strongly, while 71% say their support for him is not that strong. Senator Portman's refusal to consider the nomination of Merrick Garland can put 15% of the electorate in play as possible new voters for Ted Strickland.

?  A Public Policy Polling survey<http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PPP%20Poll%20Toomey-Portman%20Hurt%20By%20Supreme%20Court%20Stance%202-22-2016.pdf> of Ohio voters conducted in late February found just 30 percent approve of the job Portman is doing next to 39 percent who disapprove. Strong majorities of voters (58/35) in Ohio want the vacant seat filled this year. Especially Independent voters, with 70 percent saying a new Justice should be named this year.  Overall, 52 percent of voters say they'll be less likely to vote for Portman this fall if the refuses to confirm a replacement for Justice Scalia, compared to only 25 percent who say taking that stance makes them more likely to vote for them. 59 percent of Independent voters in Ohio say that makes them less likely to vote for Portman to just 15 percent more likely.

*         At least 14 newspaper editorials<http://www.judgingtheenvironment.org/press/pr/MERRICK-GARLAND-MORE-THAN-500-EDITORIALS-BY-EDITORIAL-BOARDS-IN-49-STATES-DC-URGE-SENATE-HEARING.html> in Ohio have called on Portman and fellow Republicans to go forward with the nomination process.
Pat Toomey (R-PA)

?  Via Politics PA, May 11th, 2016<http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-quinnipiac-poll-toomey-45-mcginty-44/75355/> : "The Senate contest between Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty is essentially tied. That's the finding of the latest Quinnipiac Poll<https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2346>, which shows the two candidates within the margin of error. Incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Toomey garnered 45% while Democratic nominee Katie McGinty received 44%. Last month, Toomey's lead was nine points. ... By a 52% to 29% margin, voters approve of the President's nomination of Merrick Garland to the vacant seat on the Supreme Court. Additionally, by a 58% to 37% margin, respondents want Garland's nomination considered by the Senate. After GOP leaders made it clear they didn't want the President to appoint a Justice that would swing the balance of the Court, Toomey embraced<http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-scalias-death-causes-a-furor-in-the-senate-race/72757/> that<http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-toomey-stands-firm-on-not-confirming/72849/> position<http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-toomey-reacts-to-pres-obamas-scotus-nominee/73611/> and has stuck by it<http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-toomey-unconvinced-by-garland-after-meeting/74418/>. ... 30% say Toomey's position makes them less likely to vote for him against 18% who say it makes them more likely to vote for him. 51% replied that it made no difference. Overall, Pennsylvania voters support Garland's nomination 52-29, the poll found, including 57-37 among independents, who will be critical to Toomey in a state where Democrats hold a roughly 1 million-person edge in voter registration. And though 59 percent of Republicans oppose Garland's nomination, 81 percent of Democrats support the pick."

?  Similarly, a Hart Research Associates poll conducted April 20-23<http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/WN9-PA.pdf> of PA voters found:

?  By 56% to 37% margin, Pennsylvanians say the Senate should hold hearings on Judge Garland and take an up-or-down vote on him rather than waiting for a new president to nominate someone. Registered independents take this position by a margin of 60% to 36%.

?  When told that Republican Senate leaders said immediately after the death of Justice Scalia that they would refuse to consider any nominee submitted by President Obama, and have followed through on this by refusing to give Merrick Garland a hearing, 63% disapprove of this approach, including 50% who strongly disapprove. Fully 69% of registered independents disapprove.

?  When told that Pat Toomey supports the Republican leadership's refusal to consider any Supreme Court nominee submitted by President Obama, including Merrick Garland, 57% of voters express an unfavorable reaction, including 60% of registered independents and 59% of voters who are undecided about whether they will support Toomey for reelection.

?  Even among those who are otherwise inclined to vote to reelect Toomey, 29% express disapproval of his handling of this matter- putting a substantial share of his vote at risk.

?  A Public Policy Polling survey<http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PPP%20Poll%20Toomey-Portman%20Hurt%20By%20Supreme%20Court%20Stance%202-22-2016.pdf> of Pennsylvania voters conducted late February found only 29 percent of voters approve of the job Toomey is doing, compared to 40 percent who disapprove.  Strong majorities of voters (57/40) say the vacant seat on the Supreme Court should be filled this year. What should be particularly concerning for Toomey is how emphatic the support (60/37) for approving a replacement is among independent voters. Those independent voters are going to make the difference in November, and they have no tolerance for obstructionism on the vacancy. This is an issue that really does have the potential to make Toomey's life even harder this fall if he doesn't change his tune. 52 percent of voters say they'll be less likely to vote for Toomey if he refuses to confirm a replacement for Justice Scalia. 55 percent of independents say they're less likely to vote for him based on that stance to only 24 percent more inclined to support him.

?  At least 42 newspaper editorials<http://www.judgingtheenvironment.org/press/pr/MERRICK-GARLAND-MORE-THAN-500-EDITORIALS-BY-EDITORIAL-BOARDS-IN-49-STATES-DC-URGE-SENATE-HEARING.html> published in Pennsylvania Ohio have blasted Toomey and fellow Republicans for shirking their constitutional responsibility.
Ron Johnson (R-WI)

?  Via Roll Call, April 29, 2016, 'Poll: Ron Johnson at Odds with Wisconsin Voters on Supreme Court'<http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/could-supreme-court-stance-doom-ron-johnson> : A majority of likely Wisconsin voters want President Barack Obama and the Senate to fill the late Justice Antonin Scalia's Supreme Court seat ... The poll, conducted for End Citizens United PAC<http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/campaign-finance-reform-pac-wants-player-2016> by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, shows 60 percent of likely Wisconsin voters want to see the president and Senate take action to fill the vacancy now. Only 35 percent think it's too late in the president's term for him to nominate a replacement justice. ... Among independent voters, 57 percent thought senators who blocked any nominee were advancing their own party's agenda while 37 percent felt they were protecting Americans' rights.

?  A Public Policy Polling survey<http://aufc.3cdn.net/ded7b95250a6ff3725_pgm6b9ttk.pdf> conducted February 22-23 found that by a 62/35 spread, Wisconsin voters think that the vacant seat on the Supreme Court should be filled this year, including support from 67 percent of Independent voters.  Johnson is way underwater, having just a 33 percent approval rating, with 50 percent of voters disapproving of his performance. 53 percent of voters in Wisconsin say they're less likely to vote for Johnson because of his refusal to consider a nominee, compared to just 26 percent who say that stance makes them more likely to vote for Johnson. The finding that 56 percent of independents say obstructionism on this issue makes them less likely to vote to reelect Johnson is not news he needed right now, especially after falling behind in every single head-to-head poll between himself and former Senator Russ Feingold released since 2013.<http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-wisconsin-senate-johnson-vs-feingold>

?  At least 7 newspaper editorials<http://www.judgingtheenvironment.org/press/pr/MERRICK-GARLAND-MORE-THAN-500-EDITORIALS-BY-EDITORIAL-BOARDS-IN-49-STATES-DC-URGE-SENATE-HEARING.html> published in Wisconsin have pushed Johnson to do his job and support hearings.

?  Recent Local News Headlines:

?  WKOW, May 6, 2016: Democrats ramp up pressure on Sen. Johnson to support SCOTUS confirmation vote<http://www.wkow.com/story/31913177/2016/05/06/democrats-ramp-up-pressure-on-sen-johnson-to-support-scotus-confirmation-vote>

?  WBAY, May 8, 2016: Democrats call on Sen. Johnson to support filling U.S. Supreme Court vacancy<http://wbay.com/2016/05/08/democrats-call-on-sen-johnson-to-support-filling-u-s-supreme-court-vacancy/>
Mark Kirk (R-IL)

?  Senator Kirk quickly read the political tea leaves and was among the first to break ranks with party leadership and announce his support for hearings for whomever the President nominated. Unfortunately for Kirk, the election-year moderate-conversion strategy has not gotten him off the hook for his party's intransigence.  As Chicago Sun-Times<http://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/sweet-kirk-targeted-dems-supreme-court-vote/> columnist Lynn Sweet noted, "The Democrats have figured out what they want from Kirk. ... nothing is going to be acceptable short of a Garland hearing and an up-or-down vote. The Democrats are arguing that what Kirk says and does will not matter unless McConnell moves the Garland nomination to the Senate floor."

?  Kirk's own campaign<https://kirkforsenate.com/news/kirk-duckworth-statistical-tie-new-kirk-illinois-senate-p> released a poll this month showing he's losing to his opponent, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth by a 42.7 percent to 39.6 margin.

?  Recent Local News: 'WICS, May 3, 2016:  Rep. Lang Calls On Sen. Kirk To Act'<http://newschannel20.com/news/local/rep-lang-calls-on-sen-kirk-to-act-05-03-2016>

?  _____________________________________________________
Jeremy J. Funk

?  Communications Director, Americans United for Change

?  Office: 202.470.5878

?  Cell: 605.366.3654
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>

?  www.AmericansUnitedforChange.org<http://www.AmericansUnitedforChange.org>

?  Twitter: @jeremyjfunk<https://twitter.com/JeremyJFunk>