Subject: TwentySixteen: The GOP Has a New Leader
From: Karyn Bruggeman <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 4 May 2016 06:10:45 -0600

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The Lead
"Donald Trump now is all but certain to lead the Republican Party into the fall presidential campaign against ... Hillary Clinton - a stunning political triumph for a first-time candidate whose appeal to frustrated voters was widely underestimated. Trump's victory in Indiana Tuesday and Ted Cruz's abrupt decision to drop out resolved the Republican nominee for 2016, but it still left the party in a deep state of uncertainty. Some Republican leaders remain acutely wary of the bombastic billionaire and have insisted they could never support him, even in a faceoff against Clinton." John Kasich's campaign said: "Tonight's results are not going to alter Gov. Kasich's campaign plans. Our strategy has been and continues to be one that involves winning the nomination at an open convention." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c9b360b108ee42c819311165bc35033e5d43de3f641eb2d59 
AP ) Kasich's statement came even though "Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus declared Trump the 'presumptive nominee' and urged all Republicans to unite behind him." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c472ef5f1268bed7743fa6dea85c87df7faf25645cbd122f4 
Washington Post)

Bernie Sanders "eked out a victory over Clinton in Indiana, but the outcome will not slow the former secretary of state's march to the Democratic nomination. Heading into Tuesday's voting, Clinton had 92 percent of the delegates she needs. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c9b360b108ee42c819311165bc35033e5d43de3f641eb2d59 
AP ) It is "now mathematically impossible for [Sanders] to reach the magic number for the Democratic nomination by winning the remaining pledged delegates alone." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c9e7519c36086671b34c044545782c9bb95d511cb45f0a326 
Politico)

Trump won the Indiana Republican primary with 53% of the vote, followed by Cruz with 37% and Kasich with 8%. Sanders beat Clinton 52 to 48%. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c4a4c5d2c42db8380139a5b9ec4ec7be612d15e8454e4c895 
AP )

IMPLICATIONS FOR GOP: Trump's "nomination ... poses undeniable peril to the party he is poised to lead. Republican leaders, who have been reluctant to embrace his candidacy, are watching him with great trepidation, and on Tuesday night they seemed to be grappling with the implications of ... Trump's emergence as the new face of their party." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c7f0cf59777bc769c9ff5ae2c532bb6a7695c9b9a665779f6 
New York Times) Trump's win also "proved that the stop-Trump-at-all-costs movement makes up only a small (albeit influential) faction of the party" and "that the tea-party movement that roiled Republican politics from 2009 to 2014 was as much about fighting against the party's establishment as it was about reducing the scope of government." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405cce1d03350ab90a2ee79699b495eb45561862e801a34294f2 
National Journal) Many Republicans will be left wondering how the party reached this point, and there are several reasons which led to strategic mistakes: "[A] general unwillingness by the other 16 candidates to challenge Trump," no one "bothered to determine whether Trump was as wealthy as he claimed," there was a broadly "flawed assessment of Trump's likelihood of running as an independent," not enough conservative outside groups...challenged Trump," a shortened primary schedule, and the "assumption that... primary voters would never support" Trump. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c32969e3864e735b34e495558be9f7d770ebdd95aa6c5d00f 
National Journal )

CLINTON VS. TRUMP: Trump begins a general election "matchup at a significant disadvantage. ... Trump trails ... Clinton by around 10 percentage points in early general election surveys, both nationally and in key battleground states. He even trails in some polls of several states where Mitt Romney won in 2012, like North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and Utah." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c41b0835af57dc06d973d2075b86ec8f55ea114c7fef8d0f6 
New York Times) DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) said a race against Trump "could herald a world in which Democrats are competing for Georgia and Arizona in the 2016 general election." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405cc62245a0c0285d00e9fe6ce76da44c6866754bf265372a4a 
BuzzFeed ) "In recent days, the Clinton campaign has finalized a series of senior hires around the country, expanded the size of her central swing-state planning team in New York, and hundreds of thousands of dollars have been transferred to strategically important state parties from the Democratic National Committee." One speed bump on Clinton's path to readying herself for a race against Trump: "Until the convention, the campaign is limited to using only money designated as primary election dollars, and the campaign has yet to start raising general election dollars." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c1e026f516f8117d859081c5eb258159d2855e9ca72808762 
Politico)

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: "For some Republicans, the prospect of a President Clinton is more palatable than a President Trump - not because they like Clinton, but because they could fight her on familiar terrain, rather than watching an unpredictable Trump use the power of the White House to remake the GOP. Conservative blogger Erick Erickson, a staunch Trump critic, said he and other activists plan to hold a conference call Wednesday to discuss strategy moving forward." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405ce69c1053a313e367045bc6005c5c6ef962417bd1790bd385 
Washington Post) Mark Salter, a former top aide to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said he'd back Clinton over Trump in a general election. Salter isn't the only Republican "expressing disgust with Trump. But he may the highest profile one yet to say he'd support the likely Democratic nominee instead." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405ca3defa53855e9023127550273c394f0db09133b74a590f08 
MSNBC ) "At least three Republican senators -Lindsey Grahamof South Carolina, Nebraska's Ben Sasse and Cory Gardner of Colorado - signaled Tuesday night that they remain opposed to a Trump candidacy." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c77ec126c006a96f9b7e7015cd365100277b52d74a66523f4 
Politico)

NUMBER OF THE DAY: 7. The 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405cad4dabbdf3c1d3b2c35287b30fc77b9bc14ca96a42e9348b 
number of days Carly Fiorina was Cruz's running mate, making her tenure the shortest vice presidential candidacy in recent history. 

http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405cde1deb14770d39c3538230e3dc580efda969f73a2521656e 
Travel Tracker
Kasich is spending the day attending fundraisers in Maryland and Virginia, and will hold a press conference at 10:45 a.m. ET at Dulles Airport in northern Virginia.

Sanders is holding a rally in Lexington, Kentucky.

Trail Mix 
Ed Rollins, who managed former President Ronald Reagan's (R) 1984 campaign, "is joining a pro-Donald Trump super PAC," the Great America PAC. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c1495b5aae5751a4b02af3e7299e7b914021efbbc71cdf23e 
Politico)

West Virginia gubernatorial candidate Bill Cole (R) endorsed Trump on Tuesday. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c6eec66dc9607ec0e744e359fe6e19d436a5a40ce4d525304 
Charleston Gazette-Mail)

General election prep: Clinton's Florida headquarters will be 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405cea9df0f6e8626d5483b1f6de914b6c6efc8e4fb8c8b70f95 
based in Tampa , and she continues to hire battleground state directors, including one in North Carolina. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405cc6d2fd9e5100d343e88003613d8d33eef29f3439a565eb2d 
BuzzFeed )

"We were so close to being relevant," -- Mike Madrid, a California GOP consultant on his state after the Indiana results came in. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=09b009da5331405c9a2d2a76294d4864a28e874fe3b5aeb4007444da6985525c 
Los Angeles Times)

NEBRASKA (R), WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARIES: 6 days.
KENTUCKY (D), OREGON PRIMARIES: 13 days.
ELECTION DAY COUNTDOWN: 188 days.

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