Subject: POLITICO's Morning Money: Trump is the GOP nominee — Dems prepare to destroy Trump — Warren comes out blazing — Bernie wins Indiana, pledges to fight on
From: Morning Money <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 May 2016 06:04:09 -0600

By Ben White | 05/04/2016 08:01 AM EDT

TRUMP IS THE GOP NOMINEE - As predicted in this space yesterday, Donald Trump rolled to a big win in Indiana and Ted Cruz dropped out of the GOP presidential race. Trump is now on track to hit the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination on the first ballot in Cleveland in July. The focus now shifts to how Republicans will deal with the fact that Trump - who is neither a fiscal nor a social conservative - is their standard bearer. Some began on Tuesday to line up behind the Manhattan-based brand manager. The RNC officially acknowledged Trump as the victor. But there are plenty of big names - including Cruz - who have not lined up behind Trump and may never do so. 

How could Cruz possibly back Trump now? The Texas senator just called Trump a "pathological liar," "utterly amoral," "a narcissist at a level I don't think this country's ever seen" and "a serial philanderer." That's a tough bell to unring. And what of Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio and all the rest? On Wall Street the question now becomes whether Republicans grudgingly get in line or sit the race out and quietly (or perhaps not so quietly) hope Clinton wins. 

MM's money is on the latter. Trump represents a major tail risk for markets and the economy. He could wind up being OK as president. But he could also create massive disruption through trade wars, mass deportations and destabilized relations with traditional allies. Wall Street usually shies away from that kind of risk. 

NY DAILY NEWS FRONT: RIP GOP http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6000e326a9556ad544a38dc07b0ee14f34abf05fc1769f1d7

DEMS PREPARE TO DESTROY TRUMP - Via POLITICO: "Hillary Clinton's campaign signaled on Tuesday that it will paint Donald Trump as an unstable, dangerous bully with no interest in helping ordinary Americans, judging from comments made by campaign chairman John Podesta. Trump is 'too divisive' and 'lacks the temperament' to be president, Podesta wrote in a statement issued after the real estate mogul won the Indiana Republican presidential primary ... 

"Fundamentally, our next president will need to do two things: keep our nation safe in a dangerous world and help working families get ahead here at home,' Podesta said. 'Donald Trump is not prepared to do either.'" 

WARREN COMES OUT BLAZING - Sen. Elizabeth Warren continues to show she will be a powerful weapon for Clinton in the fall. Her response to Trump's win on Tuesday night, via Twitter: "There's more enthusiasm for @realDonaldTrump among leaders of the KKK than leaders of the political party he now controls" 

RNC Chair Reince Priebus declared on Twitter: "@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite and focus on defeating @HillaryClinton #NeverClinton"

"NEVER TRUMP" VOWS TO FIGHT ON - Via Katie Packer: "While tonight's Indiana primary results increased Donald Trump's delegate count, Trump remains short of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. A substantial number of delegates remain up for grabs in this highly unpredictable year. In addition, there is more than a month before the California primary - more time for Trump to continue to disqualify himself in the eyes of voters, as he did yet again today spreading absurd tabloid lies about Ted Cruz's father and the JFK assassination." 

BERNIE WINS INDIANA, PLEDGES TO FIGHT ON - POLITICO's Matthew Nussbaum: "Sen. Bernie Sanders, fresh off a surprise victory in the Indiana primary, is confident that he is only helping the Democratic Party by remaining in the race against Hillary Clinton. 'The Clinton campaign thinks this is over. They're wrong,' Sanders told the Associated Press. 'We are bringing literally millions of people into the political process,' Sanders said of his campaign. 

"He argued that, by remaining in the race, he is energizing the Democratic Party in a way that will increase voter turnout in the general election. High turnout, he said, will be crucial for Democratic victory. 'I am going to do everything that I can to make sure that in November we have a very high voter turnout,' Sanders said. The pressure on Sanders to bow out is expected to increase now that Trump is the presumptive nominee on the Republican side" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6a37aceef326904b5abcfe29301435f6d7568f44f7a617d12

BUT SANDERS CAN'T WIN - POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "There's one more reason for Bernie Sanders focus his energy on winning over super delegates - it's now mathematically impossible for him to reach the magic number for the Democratic nomination by winning the remaining pledged delegates alone. Here's how it works: After winning Indiana, Sanders has 1,399 pledged delegates and super delegates to his name, according to the Associated Press' count. That means he needs 984 more to reach the threshold of 2,383 needed to win.

"The remaining contests, however - Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia - only have 933 pledged delegates to offer. So even if Sanders were to win 100 percent of the pledged delegates in each of those states, he wouldn't make it past the mark" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae62be958b5e16041bd315be4eb1de30f7c86e5ef9fd9f367fd

NEW POLLS SHOW STATE OF DISCONTENT - Per a survey coming out this a.m. from Stan Greenberg and the Roosevelt Institute: "Likely voters have very unfavorable views of CEOs, Wall Street and Trickle-down economics with only 15 percent (CEOs), 20 percent (Wall Street) and 19 percent (Trickle-down) holding a favorable view of each. ... 82 percent of voters believe the economy 'is rigged in favor of the wealthy and political elites' with 62 percent of respondents blaming politicians" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6da805028513f8d202d73fa29e7a2536a4ace776a3be8fd8e

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING - Nice to be back on the east coast after a fun trip to Los Angeles. But what's the deal with all the rain? Maybe we need to move MM HQ to Santa Monica. Email me your thoughts on the Clinton-Trump 2016 Smackdown to [email-masked] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. 

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES - Jon Prior on new mortgage aid programs coming this summer -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m.-- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email-masked]

DRIVING THE DAY - Lot of conversations will be happening in corporate America about what the heck to do about the 2016 race ... President Obama heads to Flint, Michigan to receive an update on the water crisis and offer remarks ... ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. expected to show a gain of 198K ... ISM non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise from 54.5 to 54.7 

DOLLAR KEEPS SINKING - FT's Roger Blitz in London and Robin Wigglesworth in New York: "The US dollar touched a 15-month low on Tuesday, reflecting growing market doubts that the US economy can grow fast enough for the Fed ... to meet even its own modest interest rates target. The 'DXY' index that measures the greenback against a basket of its major peers has fallen for seven straight days - its longest losing streak in over a year. On Tuesday it fell as much as 0.8 per cent to below 92, a level last plumbed in January 2015.

"Although the gauge later clawed back its losses to trade at 92.83, currency strategists said the trend pointed to further declines. ... Only four of the 32 largest currencies in the world have failed to gain against the dollar this year, complicating the landscape for economic policy globally. Policymakers in the eurozone and Japan are seeking to increase stimulus to raise growth levels and inflation, but instead find their strengthening currencies having the opposite effect. In the US ... the dollar's fall may increase inflationary pressures and boost growth" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6097cf09b644ae82066101edf06a6825bfdc4fd3a47bec960

METLIFE HIT WITH $25M FINE - WSJ's Aruna Viswanatha and Leslie Scism: "MetLife Inc. ... misled tens of thousands of customers about a product that retirees seek out for safety, according to regulators, who levied a near-record $25 million fine against the company. In a rare black eye ... a brokerage industry regulator said MetLife failed to help customers properly compare old and new versions of variable annuities, leading some clients to give up versions of products that were cheaper and had more-generous features than new ones.

"The $25 million MetLife agreed to pay to settle the allegations with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority is the second-largest fine Finra has ever levied. The largest, a $50 million penalty against Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. over allegedly inflated commissions for hot initial public offerings, was in 2002. MetLife neither admitted nor denied the Wall Street watchdog's findings" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae63a220ca41e2904b83548272f3583768613f46a4054c9ae2d

COULD TRUMP WIN? PROBABLY NOT - NYT's Nate Cohn: "A general election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton became all but certain on Tuesday ... He would begin that matchup at a significant disadvantage. ... [T]his is when early horse-race polls start to give a rough sense of the November election, and Mr. Trump trails Mrs. Clinton by around 10 percentage points in early general election surveys, both nationally and in key battleground states. He even trails in some polls of several states where Mitt Romney won in 2012, like North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and Utah.

"Could Mr. Trump overtake Mrs. Clinton? Sure. Mrs. Clinton is very unpopular herself. Her polling lead is a snapshot in time, before the barrage of attack ads that are sure to come her way. There have been 10-point shifts over the general election season before, even if it's uncommon. But there isn't much of a precedent for huge swings in races with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. A majority of Americans may not like her, but they say they're scared of him. To have a chance, he'll need to change that." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae69b8aec7cbad2b675a15f91b400e6a02ddd5e5a3381b038b3

GOOGLE SEALS DRIVERLESS CAR DEAL - FT's Robert Wright: "Alphabet's search for an automotive partner to develop self-driving vehicles finally bore fruit on Tuesday when Google's parent company said it would work with Fiat Chrysler to trial its systems in a new minivan. ... The deal marks the culmination of months of work by the technology company, which has acknowledged that it needs more automotive industry expertise to work out how to integrate its autonomous systems with a vehicle.

"Other carmakers - including Ford - have been wary of co-operating with Alphabet, for fear of ending up like makers of Android smartphones. Many observers believe that hardware makers such as Samsung and Sony have lost control over their relationship with customers, who now relate mainly to Google's popular Android software. The two companies said they would work together to integrate Alphabet's self-driving technology into 100 Chrysler Pacifica minivans for its test fleet" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6aa5694c0b7f1fc0ac3df1b13dac373bada2f2378cf455b11

BANKS SETTLE RATE RIGGING SUIT - Reuters: "Seven of the world's biggest banks have agreed to pay $324 million to settle a private U.S. lawsuit accusing them of rigging an interest rate benchmark used in the $553 trillion derivatives market. The settlement made public on Tuesday, which requires court approval, resolves antitrust claims against Bank of America, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase and Royal Bank of Scotland ... Several pension funds and municipalities accused 14 banks, including those that settled, of conspiring to rig the 'ISDAfix' benchmark for their own gain from at least 2009 to 2012.

"Companies and investors use ISDAfix to price swaps transactions, commercial real estate mortgages and structured debt securities. The alleged illegal activity included the execution of rapid trades just before the rate was set each day, called 'banging the close,' causing the British brokerage ICAP Plc to delay trades until they moved ISDAfix where they wanted, and posting rates that did not reflect market activity." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae635d1a2e2dddc49458b1b0789bdf39279a1e751c1202887ae

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR - 

REGULATORY COST REPORT - CEI this a.m. is release its 9th annual "10,000 Commandments" report which the group says "tallies the 2015 cost to the American public of federal regulations at $1.885 trillion" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6cf9d79bb446caa5e6ea8dce1df1d52e3aec13e1293469e35

KIT BOND ON INVERSION RULES - Former senator Christopher S. Kit Bond in The Hill: "The Administration's move to prevent companies from merging with corporations based in lower-tax countries, called inversions, is just the latest anti-business hammer. More worrying, the Administration's anti-merger rule underscores many on the left's lack of understanding or interest in basic economics. In a global economy, American businesses are competing with foreign companies. Saddled with a 35 percent U.S. corporate tax rate, the highest among all industrialized nations, our businesses are starting with a heavy disadvantage" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6c7a1f1d37617bbf406902c17a6ef6e800e46a0495cf81c5a

TAKATA FACES 35 MILLION MORE AIR BAG RECALLS - NYT's Hiroko Tabuchi: "Regulators are expected to announce as early as Wednesday that at least 35 million additional airbags made by Takata will need to be fixed ... This would more than double what is already the largest automotive recall in American history. The airbags can unexpectedly explode, sending metal parts hurtling into the cabin. At least 11 deaths worldwide have been linked to the defect.

"The expansion would bring the total of recalled Takata airbags to at least 63 million in the United States - possibly affecting nearly one in four of the 250 million vehicles on America's roads. At issue is Takata's use of a compound called ammonium nitrate, which can become unstable over time or when it is exposed to moisture. Takata has wrestled with the makeup of the compound over the years, eventually adding a drying agent to make it more stable" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed1db482754aeae6700bbe94bb3b8cc238810953a80951cefbe70d00cff02da5

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