Subject: Politico: Private polls reveal a Trump-Cruz Indiana dogfight
From: "Bennett, Eric" <[email-masked]>
To: Comm_D <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2016 14:07:56 -0700

Private polls reveal a Trump-Cruz Indiana dogfight<http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-cruz-indiana-primary-polls-222287>

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-cruz-indiana-primary-polls-222287

By SHANE GOLDMACHER 04/21/16 04:20 PM EDT

No state in the coming weeks of the Republican presidential contest is viewed by the campaigns as more consequential than Indiana - and none has been a bigger black hole for polling, where not a single public survey of the state's electorate has been released.

But that doesn't mean there haven't been polls, especially with a heated Republican Senate primary in Indiana. Their findings just haven't been revealed. Until now.

Three different groups, not affiliated with the presidential campaigns, that have surveyed the state recently provided results to POLITICO on condition that they be shared anonymously.

One survey, completed on April 12, had Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in a statistical tie: 32 percent to 32 percent, with John Kasich, governor of neighboring Ohio, a distant third, with 14 percent.

A second survey also had Trump and Cruz tied, but that was a change from three weeks earlier, when Cruz had led outside the margin of error.

A third survey, from last week, had Trump ahead of Cruz, outside the margin of error.

While private polls are to be treated with caution, the lack of public data in Indiana makes sharing the findings worthwhile, especially given the state's coveted status.

The Club for Growth Action Fund announced a $1.5 million ad buy in the state on Thursday. "There is now no state more important than Indiana for electing Cruz and keeping Trump from reaching 1,237," said Club president David McIntosh.

Indiana votes on May 3 and delivers 30 delegates to its statewide winner, plus three delegates to the winner of each of the state's nine congressional districts.

It is likely to be the biggest battleground in coming weeks, given both the closeness of the race and the huge haul of delegates. Both Trump and Cruz, for instance, are making in-person appeals to Republican Gov. Mike Pence.

Cruz hopes to re-run the playbook that led him to victory in Wisconsin. Trump hopes his New York win, plus expected success in the five states that vote before that on April 26 - Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island and Connecticut - will carry him to victory.

If Trump is to get to 1,237 delegates, he would likely need to win Indiana. Without it, his best mathematical alternative would be either to flip a likely Cruz state - Montana or South Dakota - or to sweep almost all 172 of California's delegates, a tall task.