Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Stutzman unable to trace Mourdock's path in Indiana — DCCC makes first fall ad buys — Super PACs galore in House primaries
From: Morning Score <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 2 May 2016 08:05:49 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 05/02/2016 10:04 AM EDT

With help from Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

HOOSIER PRIMARY - "GOP establishment edging tea party in Indiana Senate clash," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Brownsburg, Ind.: "Establishment Republicans are poised to rout the tea party in their biggest Senate showdown of 2016, a dramatic turn of the tables from both recent Senate history and this year's unpredictable presidential race. Just four years ago in Indiana, a shock 20-point primary loss by six-term GOP Sen. Richard Lugar demonstrated just how much establishment control of the GOP had slipped. But this year, Rep. Todd Young has opened a lead in the state's Republican Senate primary behind a tsunami of establishment money and support - and the tea-party energy that took
 down Lugar has failed to materialize, despite the anti-establishment vigor of the presidential race."

- "GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman, Young's opponent, has won support from some of the same groups that backed Lugar challenger Richard Mourdock in Indiana in 2012. But neither the money nor the outrage that drove past tea-party campaigns has been there for Stutzman. Young and his supporters have outspent Stutzman 9-to-1 on TV." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbcba172ab5aa62369639e63af6e9d9969d2e8b85dfb30883dc

ADDING ADS - DCCC makes first fall TV reservations," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making its first TV ad buys for the fall, outlining the beginnings of a 2016 House battleground map that is still developing. The DCCC's independent-expenditure arm has reserved $32 million worth of airtime in markets covering 14 districts - 12 held by Republicans and two held by Democrats. The buys start as early as Sept. 6, and some run through Election Day in November. ... The reservations also appear to be tilted toward major markets in battleground states - like Denver, Miami, and Las Vegas - where ad rates are likely to soar."

- The DCCC's first set of Republican targets: GOP Reps. Mike Coffman of Colorado, Carlos Curbelo of Florida, Rod Blum and David Young of Iowa, Bruce Poliquin of Maine, Erik Paulsen of Minnesota, Cresent Hardy of Nevada, Frank Guinta of New Hampshire, Barbara Comstock of Virginia, and the open seats being vacated by GOP Reps. John Kline of Minnesota, Joe Heck of Nevada and Mike Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. The DCCC has also made reservations intended to defend Democratic Reps. Rick Nolan of Minnesota and Brad Ashford of Nebraska. (See the reservations and dates organized by district here.) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc513125f83737f9b98a7c2610568721bc2917483145011d36

HOOSIER PRIMARY, CONTINUED - "Four super PACs clash in upcoming House primary," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "There are five Republicans running for the open seat in Indiana's 9th Congressional District. But the primary there has started to feel more like a race between four super PACs instead. ... [S]uch single-candidate super PACs have grown increasingly common in House races in 2016, as donors and outside groups have focused on the presidential race. ... At least 18 single-candidate super PACs have appeared in House races across the country this cycle, from Arizona to New Hampshire, although not all of them have started spending yet." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbcdc70a52411bfaf28437b5be198265950bcc4c81da9493a1e

Days until the Indiana primary: 1. Days until the 2016 election: 190. 

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THE WHY - "Inside the DCCC's Nebraska ad play," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is continuing its unusual pre-primary ad campaign with a new TV spot in Nebraska, ahead of the critical Republican contest in Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford's district. But the DCCC's top brass says there's more to the ad campaign than meddling in GOP affairs. The committee is spending more than $430,000 on ads that paint Republican Chip Maxwell in a conservative, outsider light compared to Don Bacon, a better-funded GOP candidate backed by a number of Republican House members. ... Yet the DCCC says it's also using the ads to debut a general-election line expected to
 pop up again in this district and many more this year: tying candidates to the 'Washington establishment.'"

- "'Pick your poison,' the narrator says. 'Establishment Don Bacon: tens of thousands of dollars from Washington insiders.' The segment about Maxwell, though, is longer. It runs through a list of positions that would likely carry appeal in a GOP primary. ... 'Chip Maxwell wants to completely repeal Obamacare. And Chip Maxwell won't raise the debt limit under any circumstance.' ... 'We're jump-starting a general election message against [Bacon]. And if Chip Maxwell wins, that's great too,' [DCCC executive director Kelly] Ward said. But the DCCC's move hasn't met with universal approval in its own party. Strategists in both parties are divided over the practice of advertising during the other
 side's primaries, even as it has become more common. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc2e428a3e6aecd80071bd08f7bee26aef6933f1dccf4543b9

THE MONEY CHASE - "Jolly had fundraiser scheduled days after '60 Minutes' story," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman: "On '60 Minutes' Sunday, Rep. David Jolly spent an entire segment decrying members of Congress' obsession with campaign fundraising and touting his bill to ban them from personally soliciting campaign cash. But on Friday, just five days after the piece aired, Jolly" - who's locked in a five-way primary for the Florida Senate seat Marco Rubio is vacating - "had a fundraiser scheduled in Washington, according to multiple sources familiar with the event. He was scheduled to be there, in person. And donors were asked to spend upwards of $1,000 to attend. One source said late Friday that
 the event had been canceled. Aides to Jolly said the congressman was on an airplane and they did not respond to multiple requests for comment before publication." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc6cc00f047a7e045611a72a26166589f60b00f3128092d0a7

AIR AID - McCain goes after Kirkpatrick with radio ads in her own district: GOP Sen. John McCain's campaign will go up on the air with its first radio ads today - and his campaign is going after his Democratic opponent, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, in her home district. The ad is styled to sound like a news segment about UnitedHealthcare's decision to leave the insurance exchange in Arizona. "Even after this breaking news that Arizona families will have fewer health care options, Ann Kirkpatrick still calls Obamacare her proudest vote," a narrator says. "John McCain lad led the fight to repeal Obamacare and replace it with common-sense reforms to let Arizonans make their own health care choices."
 The ad is running in the Lakeside, Show Low, Safford and Flagstaff markets in the 1st District, which Kirkpatrick is vacating to run for Senate. 

MAPMAKING METHODS - Rauner backs Illinois redistricting reform ballot measure: "Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner on Friday endorsed a petition-driven effort to allow voters to change the state constitution to reduce political influence in the redrawing of legislative boundaries, dismissing attempts by lawmakers to put their own redistricting proposals on the fall ballot," The Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson and Kim Geiger report. "Redistricting reform is part of Rauner's 'turnaround agenda,' which he has made a precondition for negotiating a state budget with the legislature." But the proposed changes would affect only state legislative districts, not congressional redistricting. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc7d499cd1f84e28db7b6d534035622553e1448df5acca1bd6

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Why Rubio hasn't endorsed Cruz," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo: "Marco Rubio won't be endorsing Ted Cruz during the Republican presidential primary, but he's likely to back the Texas senator at a contested convention - if it gets that far. The de facto plan, Rubio's backers say, is designed to help Cruz" - but also protect Rubio's political future. "Immediately after Rubio dropped out of the presidential contest following his home state March 15 loss, the Florida senator told supporters he would endorse Cruz under two conditions: if the Texas senator wanted the endorsement and if it would make a difference. But Rubio came to believe that neither Cruz nor he would
 really gain from an endorsement so far." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc94698f3a6004e99e1d492cc735ced22121e1ea27ce12a55a

- "Clinton fundraising leaves little for state parties," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Isaac Arnsdorf: "In the days before Hillary Clinton launched an unprecedented big-money fundraising vehicle with state parties last summer, she vowed 'to rebuild our party from the ground up,' proclaiming 'when our state parties are strong, we win. That's what will happen.' But less than 1 percent of the $61 million raised by that effort has stayed in the state parties' coffers, according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission filings." Most of the $3.8 million that the vehicle has transferred to the state parties has been transferred subsequently to the Democratic National
 Committee by a Clinton staffer. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbcfcba661831ab1849c82d14f71a686eb0e7f715238fd1ac4d

- "Trump flops in Arizona delegate fight," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "Donald Trump's campaign got burned again Saturday in the hunt for loyal delegates to the Republican national convention - this time on turf where he'd recently trounced his rivals in primary elections. Though the mogul's campaign showed more muscle than ever in this shadow primary, he walked away in defeat in Arizona - losing about 40 of the 55 delegate slots that were up for grabs on the day." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc16f8209b995a6c0c09125e8cc401a09ee34869607fb9f3d0

- "Go-it-alone fund-raising might limit Donald Trump in fall," by The Boston Globe's Matt Viser: With Donald "Trump closing in on the Republican nomination, there are growing questions over how he would come up with the $1 billion or more that is generally needed nowadays to run a presidential campaign, particularly one against a well-oiled Democratic fund-raising machine." If Trump intends to self-fund, "he could be challenged by the fact that much of his fortune is tied up in real estate and might be difficult to quickly transform into cash." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbc3f5efad47a7f1441650e168ae2925c75099727f9af571a48

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'd rather die." - John Podhoretz, the Commentary editor and conservative talking head, responding to a Breitbart News reporter's request for an interview on Sunday. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=244b4578dfc69dbcd0cb6a5da3cc00a13fa78e4f34b48fb0175192496aec86ce

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