Subject: TwentySixteen: Stop Trump Effort Faces Final Test in Indiana Today
From: Karyn Bruggeman <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 3 May 2016 06:17:44 -0600

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The Lead
Donald Trumpappears headed for a win in Indiana's Republican primary today. Ted Cruz's struggles in Indiana could be attributed to this: "[V]ast swaths of the state's Republican electorate, from Indianapolis to West Lafayette, have retreated from the culture wars. And ... Cruz's dogged socially conservative message seems anachronistic-and perhaps a little tin-eared-to these fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans, the kind Cruz has to win over in the state's crucial, populous and well-heeled 'doughnut' counties surrounding Indianapolis...in order to have a shot at beating Donald Trump in the primary on Tuesday." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810a0eb7335914d760b47989251e0c4b7226124a31a8e4de030 
Politico ) Another problem for Cruz is that his "support could be inefficiently concentrated in one district:" Indiana's 5th Congressional district, which isn't helpful since the state awards delegates winner take all by state and Congressional district. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810ec86d0fd1131101472199ce6786e56ba7f04cbf574efde10 
FiveThirtyEight ) "This was supposed to be the pragmatic Midwestern state that would deny Donald Trump the delegates he needs to secure the Republican presidential nomination. Yet on the eve of Tuesday's critical primary, Indiana appeared poised to help the front-runner get closer to locking it up." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd8104a22af2360cde57965e9bd0bf13686531706af45bcde94fd 
Washington Post )

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sandersface a closer contest in their primary today, but given that Clinton "is moving closer to becoming the Democratic nominee, what will be telling is whether some of the constituencies that have been resistant to her candidacy begin coming around," particularly working class white voters who have supported Sanders. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd8108998b6a57317a5ff14e6731eea5806b4b646cada326f9fe3 
New York Times)

PRIMARY GUIDE: As always, make sure to keep our Indiana 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810847373d25df37be8b373a89a6e6527cb3f2e6e656662d12b 
cheat sheet  handy for info on where to follow tonight's results, how many delegates are at stake, counties to watch, and more.

NEXT WEEK: Trump "recently reserved roughly $200,000 worth of ads statewide in Nebraska and will be the first campaign to go on the air in the state, which votes on May 10." The spending is a shift for Trump, who's been reluctant to spend money on traditional campaign tools until recently. "He spent more than $1 million in the Pennsylvania primary and is nearing $800,000 in Indiana, which votes on Tuesday." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd81009f9b6474f6e2929593f445b22dfd78665921f9107973b3f 
New York Times)

CLINTON IN WEST VIRGINIA: Clinton was greeted by protesters holding Trump signs at a stop in West Virginia on Monday, where some individuals at a roundtable were upset "about the controversial comment she made in March about the decline of coal." West Virginia votes on May 10. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd81002d3a37ee8b4add0b4533305600c88f65116518b372023f8 
BuzzFeed ) "Trump's connection with those voters could pose a threat to Clinton not only in the coal mining communities of Appalachia she visited on Monday, but also in parts of the Rust Belt and upper Midwest hit hard by the decline of domestic manufacturing." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810ce6e942525a6db5341f39a072d2767e32455fd5a7f5b95dc 
AP )

INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS: Trump got lunch in Indianapolis on Monday "with author Edward Klein, perhaps best known for his series of bombshell books spreading rumors and innuendo, much of it discredited, about the Clintons," signaling Trump is ready to rhetorically shift his attacks toward Clinton. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810eabb752295185cab95891e3e37ff3eb289c5d312b75d9399 
Washington Post) However, even if "[t]he Republican presidential nomination may be in his sights...Trump has so far ignored vital preparations needed for a quick and effective transition to the general election. The New York businessman has collected little information about tens of millions of voters he needs to turn out in the fall. He's sent few people to battleground states compared with likely Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, accumulated little if any research on her, and taken no steps to build a network capable of raising the roughly $1 billion needed to run a modern-day general election campaign." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd8107169cf987c053eb3352d4a8be85804a6701fb7b89f1876f8 
AP )

EARLY TARGET: While Trump's trying to regroup for a potential November election, the super PAC supporting Clinton, Priorities USA Action, is preparing to spend $20 million running a "series of ads painting him as an unserious, unready, and unscrupulous businessman who also happens to disparage women and minorities" beginning on "June 8, the day after the final primaries in which Trump is likely to clinch the Republican presidential nomination." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd8103377bc6a1c91a0a956d26f84cec0665a98d665731eb416d0 
National Journal )

NUMBER OF THE DAY: $2.4 million. The 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810e76dde2d9b6164c6d2ffd3e4dc15f315f6dd5f4348d5e539 
amount Clinton raised online  after Trump's "woman card" comment, marking the "two biggest consecutive days of online fundraising for her campaign." 

http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810ce0302431795146c608fc76c4b0dc2ff8096e6ce80e8a789 
Travel Tracker
Clinton is holding an event in Athens, Ohio to talk about jobs and the economy.

Sanders is holding rallies in Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky.

Cruz is in Indiana.

Trump will hold a primary night event at Trump Tower in New York City.

Trail Mix 
"Jim Gilmore can't catch a break. The former presidential hopeful ... was denied a spot Saturday as a Virginia GOP delegate." (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd8100a57fd3d9643ba817388af01d5bc532113abecba19c06b9b 
AP )

Arkansas Senate candidate Connor Eldridge (D) released a 
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd8107c282ac700079e161979a282825cfafb2783417a4cafa9d0 
web video  casting Trump's comments on women as harassment and tying him to his opponent, Sen. John Boozman (R). (release)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) said he's not being vetted as a running mate pick by the Clinton campaign. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810b38429c43012870be03ad86345289e930a8bff2382af9425 
National Journal)

"
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810cfb957ffeb9f6b864dcc7a89f638bcb2b45a782c45f70b91 
The year that geeky campaign-strategy talk went mainstream " (Washington Post)

Cruz now has a net negative favorability rating for the first time among Republicans in a national Gallup tracking poll. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810e7a3668b0149a88b7e03c35a27a8120e46b551f85688f9ac 
Gallup )

Carly Fiorina stumbled off a stage after introducing Cruz at a rally in Lafayette, Indiana. (
http://click.mail.nationaljournal.com/?qs=f32b67d7b76fd810f3e7f18de912df303cddf89f2b754616fd4558f15ba81e52 
Fox News )

NEBRASKA (R), WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARIES: 7 days.
KENTUCKY (D), OREGON PRIMARIES: 14 days.
ELECTION DAY COUNTDOWN: 189 days.

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