Subject: POLITICO's Morning Money: The weekend in Trump-land — Judge Colyer defended — New financial center … Jacksonville? — Obama enters 2016 fray
From: Morning Money <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 May 2016 06:04:48 -0600

By Ben White | 05/16/2016 08:00 AM EDT

THE WEEKEND IN TRUMP-LAND - Just to review: The New York Times ran a long piece on Saturday on Donald Trump's often gross treatment of women; Trump continues to deny that he used fake names to call reporters in the 1980s and 1990s to talk about himself even though he previously admitted it was him and it was obviously him; Trump continues to refuse to release his tax returns while claiming (quite laughably) that there is nothing to learn from them; and Trump continues to say he is completely "flexible" on the promises he made to GOP voters in the primaries. 

RNC Chair Reince Priebus, confronted with all this on ABC's "This Week" basically punted and said that in 2016: "I don't think the traditional playbook applies." To his credit, Priebus said Trump would have to "answer for" his treatment of women. But for the rest of it, Priebus suggested none if it will matter and voters will back Trump as they did in the primaries because he will blow up the system in Washington. Perhaps they will. But the early numbers don't look good. 

A poll out on Sunday showed a dead heat in Georgia, a state Democrats haven't won since Bill Clinton in 1992. If Hillary Clinton can win in the South, her already sizeable electoral college advantage could turn into a giant rout. The counter argument is that Trump could win Florida and Ohio and challenge Clinton across the Rust Belt. Possibly. 

But to do that Trump would have to overcome huge losses in south Florida and urban areas in the Midwest. Trump's electoral map at this early stage looks daunting if not impossible and he's not exactly on the offensive at the moment. 

NYT piece: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27a87e5f00b013ad3bc391fc3d30b9ba0f13c402d0b4877825 Georgia poll: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b274a654af1c9d4496a1a1b8d85668e533070f20ed94da79efd

JOIN ME TOMORROW! - Hope to see you in DC for my Morning Money lunch event with Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John C. Williams. We'll talk about possible future rate hikes this year, the state of the economy, the state of the 2016 race (including Donald Trump's comments on the Fed) and the state of bank regulation, among other things. Doors at 12:00 p.m.; The W Hotel - 515 15th St NW. RSVP: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b2789db301bba9e0b455ca7e11b9c408e9af28f1ac94187c599

HEY TRUMP, GO SEE "HAMILTON" - Gene Sperling writes in POLITICO Magazine: "Maybe, if he hasn't already seen it, Donald Trump should get himself tickets to the Broadway smash 'Hamilton.' ... One message that Hamilton, the nation's first Treasury secretary, was clear about was this: Never do or say anything that might call your country's credit into question; it will only cost you a lot more the next time you try to borrow. Careless talk by itself can badly damage an economy. ... 

"Trump, by contrast, has said so many confusing things affecting U.S. credit in the past few days that, were he president, the markets would be reeling right now and interest rates could easily be rising. Absent from his comments about gaming the debt of the United States was any sense of the economic and historical importance of America maintaining an iron-clad commitment to stand by its word on our national debt, without any question." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27f1c4d239593c5502e50419dfbcd25911b7b3bf99eea9b632

JUDGE COLYER DEFENDED - American Action Forum's Douglas Holtz-Eakin emails on Friday's item on the Obamacare subsidies ruling: "Really? A nameless former Administration official launching a personal assault on a sitting judge? Why can't the Administration defend its policies on the merits? Why can't it simply accept the budget reality that you need both an authorization and an appropriation? Why can't it run a process at FSOC that identifies why a firm is a SIFI, allow it to address those risks, and give consistent feedback to firms? Or, at least listen to its own insurance expert?" 

NEW FINANCIAL CENTER: JACKSONVILLE? - FT's Alistair Gray: "Forget the bright lights and fast pace of living in two of the world's greatest metropolises, city living for a new generation of financial workers is now more Jacksonville in Florida and Warsaw in Poland than New York and London. ... The US and British cities synonymous with banking, insurance and deal-making have lost an estimated 42,000 jobs - or 6 per cent of the sector - in the past five years as soaring costs have encouraged businesses to shift to cheaper locations." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27748bd4ead32f255353aea4d781c26b2bc7954628ba71fc85

OBAMA ENTERS 2016 FRAY - WP By Greg Jaffe May: "President Obama delivered a commencement address at Rutgers University on Sunday that steered clear of the typical graduation advice and sounded a lot like a tough, aggressive takedown of the Republican presidential front-runner. ... The president ... called on the graduates to reject politicians who hark back to better days. The 45-minute-long address was filled with obvious jabs at ... Trump, whom the president didn't name but who was a foil for the graduation speech's most cutting applause lines.

"Obama slammed Trump's proposal to build a wall along the country's southern border, saying the world is becoming ever more interconnected and 'building walls won't change that' ... He mocked Trump's call to 'Make America Great Again' saying that there was never a better time to be alive on the planet and in America. College graduation rates were up, he said. Crime rates had dropped, and more women" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27eea8eeeb655d8dea04197534ad1b2015554140f8119d6081

GOOD MONDAY MORNING - Welcome back everyone. Email me on [email-masked] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. 

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES - Patrick Temple-West on Speaker Paul Ryan promising a Puerto Rico bill "in the coming days" -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. -- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or [email-masked].

DRIVING THE WEEK - Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Monday "will participate in a moderated conversation at the Anti-Defamation League's Shana Amy Glass National Leadership Summit ... Senate Finance has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday on the corporate and individual tax system ... House Financial Services subcommittee has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday on "Interest on Reserves and the Fed's Balance Sheet" ... 

House Financial Services has a hearing at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday on CFPB arbitration ... Consumer Prices at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday expected to rise 0.4 percent headline and 0.2 percent core ... Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. Tuesday expected to rise 0.3 percent ... Index of Leading Economic Indicators at 10:00 a.m. Thursday expected to rise 0.4 percent ... WalMart reports first quarter earnings on Thursday ... G7 finance ministers meet Friday and Saturday in Sendai, Japan 

DIMON/BLOOMBERG ON EDUCATION - In a joint Bloomberg op-ed this a.m., Jamie Dimon and Michael Bloomberg write: "The U.S. presidential campaign has focused a great deal on the need to expand economic opportunity, but candidates in both parties have not said enough about how they would achieve it. While helping more students go to college has been a topic of discussion and is a vitally important goal, what about those who do not go - or who drop out of high school? ... 

"We will not solve the critical challenges of poverty, underemployment, wage stagnation and bulging prisons unless we get serious about investing in effective programs that prepare kids who are not immediately college-bound for middle-class jobs. ... To help close the gap, JPMorgan Chase and Bloomberg are providing $7.5 million to YouthForce NOLA, and we hope other business leaders will join us in pushing for change in their home communities. We are preparing similar investments in Denver and Detroit" 

TRUMP: WON'T HAVE GOOD RELATIONS WITH CAMERON - Reuters: "Donald Trump has said he is unlikely to have a good relationship with David Cameron because the British prime minister cast the U.S. presidential candidate as 'divisive, stupid and wrong' for proposing a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States.

'It looks like we're not going to have a very good relationship, who knows,' Trump told Britain's ITV television station in an interview aired on Monday when asked how ties would be if he won power in the Nov. 8 presidential election." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27366594c6563d7931bd3e60316af15aad6c809cbe27fa8fec

NOT ALL BANKERS ARE EVIL! - Via New York Daily News: "Good Samaritans rescued a man from the subway tracks as a train bore down on the station at the Times Square stop Sunday. ... Joel Steinhaus, 34, was on his way home with his wife and three kids when he heard fellow straphangers yelling and saw a man stuck on the downtown A/C/E track, trying to climb up onto the platform. 

"'As I'm walking over, he loses his grip and falls all the way back down on his back between the two tracks,' said Steinhaus, who lives in Chelsea and works for Citigroup. 'You could see the light coming into the station. The train was coming right then,' he said. 'I started waving my arms and yelling at the train to stop.' ... Another subway rider jumped down onto the tracks and boosted him up from below, while Steinhaus pulled him up from above" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27427a6571c551993fc78307c4f0bc192e6b6451c92ccd0aed

TRUMP COULDN'T FINANCE GENERAL ELECTION - WSJ's Peter Grant and Brody Mullins: "Trump, after long saying his self-financed campaign shielded him from special interests, is preparing to start raising large donations. He reversed course, he said in early May, to ensure his campaign has the resources to compete with Hillary Clinton. It might seem a strange reason for a man who says he is worth $10 billion. But a close analysis of Mr. Trump's finances shows that in terms of ready cash, he would be ill-equipped to foot the bill himself.

"When his campaign began last summer, a financial disclosure Mr. Trump filed said he had between about $78 million and $232 million in cash and relatively liquid assets such as stocks and bonds. That would go fast if Mr. Trump spent an amount close to the $721 million President Barack Obama spent in 2012 up to Election Day, or the $449 million Mitt Romney spent in the same stretch ... This would leave hundreds of millions to be made up. And Mr. Trump's businesses don't produce that much in a year, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. His 2016 pretax income, according to the analysis, is likely to be about $160 million" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27c8c444deddc5bfbc791ed63a48074e935a1821d890ff829d

HEDGE FUND TITANS FOR TRUMP - FT's Mary Childs and Stephen Foley: "Trump has accused hedge fund managers of 'getting away with murder' under US tax rules and assailed their free trade orthodoxies, but some of his targets are backing a Trump presidency on the premise that his rhetoric would give way to pragmatism in government. One of the first hedge fund managers to have signed up as a Trump fundraiser, Anthony Scaramucci, has been telling peers that Mr Trump would soon make a dramatic shift in style, while other backers said they expected the candidate to surround himself with experienced policy advisers.

"Jokes at Mr Trump's expense were more common than endorsements at last week's lavish SALT conference in Las Vegas, which is run by Mr Scaramucci's SkyBridge Capital, but concern that Hillary Clinton would tack to the left to win over Bernie Sanders' voters was also widespread. Both supporters and others at the event said they expected to see big differences between Trump the candidate and Trump the president" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27e51c6fdf5e58314c4dc24b3f3d2c044e11722ba40f365471

BUFFETT WANTS YAHOO - NYT's Michael J. de la Merced: "Yahoo appears to be making progress in efforts to sell itself, despite some initial skepticism. The latest piece of evidence: Among those vying for the company is the unusual combination of the investor Warren E. Buffett and Dan Gilbert, the founder of Quicken Loans and owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers. That consortium is one of several suitors that have moved into the second round of bidding for Yahoo, according to people briefed on the matter.

"Mr. Gilbert is leading the bid, said the people, who were not authorized to speak publicly. Mr. Buffett's conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, is offering to provide financing, as he has done with the investment firm 3G Capital in its takeovers of H. J. Heinz and Kraft, and is leaving the negotiations to Mr. Gilbert ... The unusual presence of Mr. Gilbert and Mr. Buffett in the bidding suggest just how far Yahoo and its advisers have cast their net to find potential buyers for the embattled Internet company" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27e185074fc523647734049208c06069c3535bc9974aef5d5e

HOW 2016 HURTS THE ECONOMY - WSJ's Jeffrey Sparshott: "Trump and Hillary Clinton promise to rejuvenate the nation's economy. Meanwhile, the process of electing one of them to the presidency will likely bruise it. The two leading presidential candidates, who sit far apart on the ideological spectrum, have prescribed either divergent or vague plans for trade, taxes, immigration and other policies that deeply influence the economy. That is stoking uncertainty, something businesses don't like and consumers can find unsettling.

"'Firms are going to be reluctant to invest or hire if they have no idea of future government policy, and if it's cheap to wait they will do that,' said Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University professor who has studied the effects of uncertainty on the economy. The evidence shows up across a wide range of surveys and data sets" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27ff7486881beb40151deec5475539d6cb6e7521788dac38e3

GOLDMAN GOES BIG ON NAT GAS - FT's Gregory Meyer: "Goldman Sachs has quietly overtaken Chevron and ExxonMobil to become one of the biggest natural gas merchants in North America, expanding in physical commodities trading even as other banks pull back. The Wall Street institution last year bought and sold 1.2tn cubic feet of physical gas in the US - equal to a quarter of the country's residential consumption and more than twice its volumes in 2013, a recent regulatory filing revealed. Goldman is now the seventh-largest gas marketer in North America, according to Natural Gas Intelligence 

"The gas utility serving households in Buffalo, New York last year purchased 11 per cent of its supply from Goldman, a securities filing showed. Power plants that produce electricity for copper mines in northern Mexico also buy gas from the bank, according to government reports and industry executives. Goldman's commodities division, known as J Aron, is listed as a shipper on huge pipelines including the Texas Eastern, which last month ruptured into a fireball that critically injured a man" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6c9c9a3476096b27ef303c56b48b4a59b14d75dbf8e3e32e160afb833677ca5e

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