Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Ellmers, Holding primary goes negative — Pence in attack mode for reelection run — Senate Majority PAC prepping Pennsylvania ads, making fall Ohio buy
From: Morning Score <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 19 May 2016 08:03:30 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 05/19/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer, Maggie Severns and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

TWO ENTER, ONE LEAVES - "Rare member-versus-member primary turns negative in North Carolina," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider in Raleigh, N.C.: "House members rarely lose primaries, even when Donald Trump is turning the political world upside-down. But there's a guaranteed loss on the horizon in North Carolina, where a rare mid-decade redistricting pushed GOP Reps. Renee Ellmers and George Holding into the same district. The increasingly bitter primary between two House Republicans (as well as two-time Senate candidate Greg Brannon) has predictably highlighted some of the major fissures within the House GOP Conference."

- Key quotes ... "When we took our first poll, it was just Holding and Ellmers and he had a 10-point lead in a pretty straightforward race," said Carter Wrenn, Holding's general consultant. "But when Brannon got in, we polled again, and found that Brannon and Holding are splitting the conservative vote, so that dropped us within the margin of error. We're in a horse race now." ... "I've seen internal polling from a variety of sources, and I've seen every possible outcome to that race, which is interesting," Americans for Prosperity state director Don Bryson said on UNCTV. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1a51a9d2211acbc52ca2ccf9fa1a51366e1bb5aed0efc0b835039d8a615697b6

'TAKING THE GLOVES OFF' - "Pence pivots to economy, attack mode for reelection run," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Indianapolis: Indiana GOP Gov. Mike Pence "was cruising through his first term as governor until 2015, when his promotion of religious-freedom legislation tanked his approval ratings and fractured his support from Indianapolis' powerful business community. In early 2016, a new abortion law further strained Pence's relations with some Republicans who felt it went too far. ... In response, Pence's campaign is preparing an all-out assault on [Democratic nominee John] Gregg - after a 2012 campaign which Pence won by 3 percentage points while airing exactly zero negative TV
 ads. This time around, the governor's team is preparing to delve deeply into Gregg's record as a state legislator, when the state's budget surplus became a deficit and Gregg took votes to increase his own salary and health benefits. (North Carolina's gubernatorial race, which has been rocked by recent LGBT legislation in the state, is playing out similarly so far.) Pence's campaign even switched running mates, picking up a lieutenant governor more comfortable playing an attack-dog role." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3afbab589cace16839dd53c00da29cd3a03cdf87b67b162102952ff3dde655f0

Days until the Georgia primary: 4. Days until the 2016 election: 173.

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TV TIMEOUT - Senate Majority PAC reserves $9.5 million for fall campaign in Ohio, by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Senate Majority PAC is reserving $9.5 million in airtime aimed at ousting Portman and aiding Democrat Ted Strickland, pushing the total money committed there to more than $50 million. The group, affiliated with Democratic leadership, has already spent $1.8 million attacking Portman for exporting U.S. jobs from Ohio and for being a D.C. insider. In a statement, Senate Majority PAC spokesman Shripal Shah said the ad campaign will continue the same theme. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f80f0fa5bb52987b891c69c7a5faebf0fcfe6bdca7180d9116961e6877aec873

- Set to air in Pennsylvania: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1ed621887a5b6a96ee4e977e18216c20a6d76971e3b0b5d509f820355a2b8b77

NEW THIS MORNING - Yoder gets a Democratic challenger in Kansas' 3rd District: Businessman Jay Sidie, a Democrat, announced Thursday morning that he is running against Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder. "There's no question that defeating a career politician will be difficult, but there's a groundswell of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans that want to bring an end to the devastating Yoder-Brownback agenda," Sidie said in a statement. The seat leans Republican, but Democrats see the suburban seat as a possible pick-up with Trump at the top of the ticket. It's one of several potential battleground seats where late recruits have jumped in to challenge GOP incumbents.

SEE YOU IN COURT - Judge sets Duckworth trial date: An Illinois judge has set a trial date of August 15 for a lawsuit filed against Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth is facing accusations of ethics violations from former employees during her time at the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs. The trial - which will take place while the general election is in full swing - has become a focus for Republicans as GOP Sen. Mark Kirk as he defends his seat. 

CASH RACE - "DCCC digital raised $2.9 million in April," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $2.92 million online in April, as Donald Trump riles up party donors and the pace of digital fundraising ramps up ahead of the general election. The figures, which were provided by a DCCC aide, once again highlight the key role online fundraising has played for House Democrats since they lost their majority in 2010. ... The biggest factors driving that are a list that has grown to approximately 3 million members and a team, led by digital director Julia Ager, which operates like a breaking news wire service within the campaign committee. Members of
 the DCCC's large list are likely to be on other Democratic email lists, and the most engaged donors are on dozens of them. The DCCC team races to be first to react to big news that can drive donations."

- "The NRCC's digital team, which has doubled in size since last year, is also focused on growth. The 10-person staff has gotten a major boost from" House Speaker Paul Ryan, "whose recent rise was steeped in digital politics. 'The main driver has been Paul Ryan,' said NRCC digital director Tom Newhouse. 'The first really big Republican digital operation was the Romney campaign in 2012. And he came off that campaign firsthand seeing the possibilities in terms of how much money you could raise online. ... He's been really willing to help us amplify our message and be a signer for us when he can.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e41f0d0db52125942ca3e713ba6e616072c4ae78e839bb60cb6d301b51b5ab3a

- DIRTY MONEY - GOP leaps on money from domestic-assault donor: Republican campaigns and committees are bashing Democrats around the country over past donations from Ibrahim al-Rashid, a big donor who pled guilty to a domestic violence charge. A NRCC memo criticizes the DCCC and House Majority PAC for accepting his contributions in the past. (The DCCC took $35,800 and House Majority PAC took $180,000.) Democrats Rep. Patrick Murphy, Josh Gottenheimer, and Joe Garcia have all given away or returned money from al-Rashid this cycle, as did Senate Majority PAC and the Democratic Party of Florida. 

- When asked about the donations and the Republican protest, the DCCC declined to comment on the record. House Majority PAC's Alixandria Lapp said: "House Majority PAC received contributions from Ibrahim Al-Rashid in 2012, and those donations were spent in the 2012 election. Ibrahim Al-Rashid's disgraceful crime was committed long after we received and spent those funds. His crime is inexcusable, and we won't be accepting donations from this individual in the future."

POLLING DATA - Former Rep. Joe Garcia released an internal poll showing him with a 25-point lead over Democratic rival Annette Taddeo, The Miami Herald reported. Taddeo published her own poll that also showed her lagging behind Garcia by 21 percentage points, while also touting an "informed ballot" that "showed her doing far better than Garcia once voters learned about Taddeo's personal background as the Colombian immigrant daughter of a Colombian mother and an American father, and about her positions on issues important to progressives." The Democrats are fighting it out to then take on GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo in his Miami-based, Democratic-leaning seat. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=72c03df6d7cf79a750f3b39b984d90d1797da2a62167d0e59a802546cbf2b2cb

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Parties raise big money off disgust with Trump, Clinton," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "...Congressional Republicans and Democrats may despise the other party's pick for the White House, but let's face it: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are great for business. The business, that is, of raising huge sums of money for the battle to control the Senate and House in 2017. Both Republican and Democratic congressional fundraising committees see major monetary promise in the other party's candidates. ... Each side says the specter of the other's presumed nominee has already been critical to priming the money pump." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=387fa419a0f0f1d9464f4342cf4070a96497fa583b31533c47ec0ce5488ac6a9 

- "Trump puts finances on display in federal report," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "Donald Trump has filed his second annual financial disclosure form, a 104-page document detailing many of the Manhattan real estate tycoon's sprawling assets that span across the globe. Trump boasted Tuesday that his income was more than $557 million and a net worth of above $10 billion, though the Federal Election Commission forms - which cover the past 17 months - are not specific enough to assess Trump's true net worth. Many of his assets and liabilities are simply too large - reaching far above the top disclosure threshold on the filing - for their value to be captured in the report. Trump, for
 instance, reported at least $215 million in liabilities on the form, many of which are loans and mortgages on his properties." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=390e76a7e746c02f4c0af3005c08a5bebb58f1bf90a3ebf6deef64a0f2f0a630 

- "Democrats sweat Sanders revolt," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss and Nolan D. McCaskill: "Hours after voters registered a split decision - a razor-thin victory for Hillary Clinton in Kentucky and a more comfortable win for Bernie Sanders in Oregon - top Democrats took to insisting that the seeming rift between Sanders supporters and the party establishment was no cause for alarm ... But with other Democrats alluding to the chaos of the 1968 Democratic convention, the Sanders campaign continuing to strike a defiant pose and even Donald Trump fanning the flames of Democratic discontent, the prospect of a hot landing in Philadelphia seemed more real than ever Wednesday. Nevada Democratic
 Chairwoman Roberta Lange, the target of numerous threats of violence in recent days in the wake of her state's unruly party convention last weekend, called for an apology from Sanders and warned that the intensifying fallout from her state's convention is threatening the party's ability to unite in time for the November general election." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=028ff6c6d644019fe96e3cabcd6860e07bfb2966e131cbe110b1d78f202b5e62 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There are probably more ugly women in America than attractive women. People take that stuff personally." -- Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, Democratic surrogate extraordinaire, on Donald Trump's offensive comments about women, via The Washington Post. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=bce1a374efdd3dbd4ffe71472922e3e53af4ace8123be0bd62e652f1fe62e30e 

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