Subject: 2016 GOP HIT on HRC
From: "Hendricks, Lauren" <[email-masked]>
To: Tony Carrk <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Brinster, Jeremy" <[email-masked]>, "Crystal, Andy" <[email-masked]>, "Dillon, Lauren" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 11:14:42 -0700

American Crossroads Tweet
4/26/16 2:12 PM
Read Here<https://twitter.com/AmericanXRoads/status/725024701714694144>
.@BernieSanders<https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/> can still win the Democratic nomination - if @HillaryClinton<https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/>'s "damn emails" result in an indictment opinion.injo.com/2016/04/255650...<https://t.co/wFPgEDOAdK>

Bernie Sanders Still Has One Final Path To Win The Democratic Nomination<http://opinion.injo.com/2016/04/255650-bernie-sanders-still-has-one-last-hope-to-win-the-democratic-nomination-emails-clinton/>
Ian Prior<http://opinion.injo.com/author/ian_prior/>

Washington, DC
Ian Prior is the communications director for American Crossroads. Previously, Ian was with the National Republican Congressional Committee from 2013 through 2015. Before that, Prior worked as a trial attorney in Boston.
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After losing the New York primary, things are looking quite grim for Bernie Sanders. The Clinton machine is planting "Bernie should drop out" stories left and right and, as the AP put it<http://elections.ap.org/content/superdelegates-put-clinton-path-clinch-calif>, "Hillary Clinton can lose every remaining primary in the coming weeks and still clinch the nomination."

Of course, the chances are less than zero that Hillary loses every remaining primary. And it is extremely likely that on June 14th, the day after the final primary in Washington D.C., Hillary has reached the magic number of 2383 delegates (with the aid of superdelegates) to become the presumptive nominee.

Then why shouldn't Bernie drop out?

HILLARY'S. DAMN. EMAILS.

That's right, Bernie may have famously said<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEISm_c3kzs> in an October debate that "the American people are sick and tired of hearing about [Hillary's] damn emails," but it's those same emails that are now Bernie's Obi-Wan Kenobi-like "only hope" path for winning the nomination.

Consider this - superdelegates can be flipped between the D.C. primary and the Democratic Convention, which begins on July 25. If enough do, Sanders could win the nomination at the convention. This is why Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver is on record<http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2016-04-20/bernie-sanders-is-a-democrat-for-life-says-jeff-weaver> saying that Bernie will try and flip those superdelegates to his side even if Hillary has more pledged delegates.

So is Bernie's plan simply to try and flip superdelegates based on how general election polls consistently show him performing better against the Republican candidates than Hillary? Doubtful. Republicans haven't laid a finger on Bernie and the superdelegates know that his numbers will change when they do.

No, Bernie's plan is to trade space for time. Time for what? For the FBI to complete its interviews of Clinton and her lieutenants in what is seen as the final stage of the investigation<http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-clinton-email-probe-20160327-story.html> into whether she or those around her broke federal laws as part of "emailgate." Because while Bernie and his team won't admit it, they have most certainly gamed out the five possible outcomes of the email investigation and how that can be used to flip superdelegates and capture the nomination. Of those five, one is bad for Bernie, three are bad for Hillary, and one isn't going to happen.

Let's get the "bad for Bernie" one out of the way. If the FBI investigation has yet to conclude by the convention, Bernie has no good argument why he should be the nominee when he has less pledged delegates and a lower share of the popular vote than Hillary. The end.

The first of the "bad for Hillary" scenarios is if the FBI recommends indictment of Hillary or any of her lieutenants and the Department of Justice declines to indict. At that point, Bernie's argument would be that Republicans will use this to absolutely obliterate Hillary Clinton in the fall - and he would be right.

The second "bad for Hillary" scenario is even worse. In this case, despite her consistent claim that no laws or rules were broken, one of her lieutenants - e.g., Jake Sullivan - is indicted. Bernie would argue that Hillary lied (not shocking), her top aide was indicted, she has a history of breaking the rules and lying about it, and that Republicans would use this to obliterate Hillary in the fall. Again, Bernie would be right.

The problem with either of these two arguments is that the Democrat establishment is so in the tank for Hillary, it is still not guaranteed that the superdelegates would come to their senses and see just how much of a liability Hillary would be.

But with the third "bad for Hillary" scenario, Hillary herself would be indicted. And that would be the end of her political career. But Bernie would still have to convince the superdelegates that he should be the nominee, not Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren or some other candidate that has not gotten any votes and has no campaign apparatus in place to roll into a general election.

The final situation is that, after the most high profile political investigation perhaps ever, the FBI says: "You know what, we looked into it, spent millions of dollars, but we couldn't really find enough to make a case that Hillary or her lieutenants were at the very least negligent in setting up an unsecure private server to use as a way to communicate classified and otherwise sensitive information." If you think that is going to happen, I have a great time share proposal for you.

The bottom line is this - if you are Bernie Sanders, or a Bernie Sanders supporter, don't give up hope. He can still win the nomination - but it's going to depend on what happens with those "damn emails."

Lauren Hendricks