Subject: Civil war: Ryan vs. Trump in a high-stakes GOP power struggle
From: CNN Politics Nightcap <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 6 May 2016 00:13:13 +0000
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CNN Politics: Nightcap
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May 5, 2016
by Eric Bradner
Welcome to the CNN Politics Nightcap and good Thursday night from Washington. House Speaker Paul Ryan set off a political earthquake by announcing he won't yet support Donald Trump. Mitt Romney, perhaps Trump's most prominent critic, said he's skipping the GOP convention. And Hillary Clinton's top aides have been interviewed by the FBI over her email server. Your bartender is Eric Bradner (http://www.cnn.com/profiles/eric-bradner?cid=nl_pol_071915_profile?sr=nl_pol_072215_bradner) . The tip jar: [email-masked] (mailto:[email-masked]) .

** Civil war: Ryan vs. Trump in a high-stakes GOP power struggle
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So much for party unity: House Speaker Paul Ryan declared in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/05/politics/paul-ryan-donald-trump-gop-nominee/index.html) that he's "not ready" to endorse his party's presumptive presidential nominee, Donald Trump. The speaker said he wants Trump to unify "all wings of the Republican Party and the conservative movement" and then run a campaign that will allow Americans to "have something that they're proud to support and proud to be a part of." But, he said, "we've got a ways to go from here to there."

It doesn't get much wilder than this: Ryan is now set to oversee a Republican National Convention in July where the party will coronate a nominee who he isn't ready to support.

Trump's response to Ryan: "I am not ready to support Speaker Ryan's agenda. Perhaps in the future we can work together and come to an agreement about what is best for the American people. They have been treated so badly for so long that it is about time for politicians to put them first!"

What this is about: Tone and policy. Ryan has rebuked Trump over his Muslim ban, his immigration plans and the violence that has followed him on the campaign trail. But the two also have huge policy differences. On free trade, taxes, immigration, the minimum wage and more, Trump has broken from conservative orthodoxy -- a problem for Ryan, whose dream was to write tax laws at the helm of the Ways and Means Committee -- and Republicans who have prized purity on Capitol Hill.

What it means for other Republicans: Ryan just bought them time. If House and Senate members don't want to hop on Team Trump, the speaker has given them cover -- and a way to deflect questions, instead of being forced to say whether their alternative to Trump would be a third-party candidate (or even Hillary Clinton). But if you're someone like New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who just yesterdy said she'd back Trump, Ryan's timing isn't the best.

The next step: The RNC's Sean Spicer told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that the party is working to set up a meeting between Trump and Ryan next week. "Happy to attend," tweeted (https://twitter.com/brendanbuck/status/728350655920939012?refsrc=email&s=11) Ryan's spokesman.

** Anti-Trump movement: Convention-skippers and third-party talk
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Mitt Romney joined the list of prominent Republicans who won't attend the convention (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/05/politics/mitt-romney-skips-republican-convention/index.html) in Cleveland. His decision means the party's last two presidents (George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush) and its last two nominees (Romney and John McCain) won't be on hand. How significant are their decisions? The New York Times' Alex Burns tweeted this comparison (https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/728265136188891136) : "Imagine if Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and Ted Kennedy all declined to show up at the 2008 Dem convention. That's Cleveland 2016."

The real anti-Trump flamethrower is Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, a freshman Republican who spent some time on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/sassefornebraska/posts/593031420862025) last night. He called for a third-party candidate, writing: "Why shouldn’t America draft an honest leader who will focus on 70% solutions for the next four years? You know ... an adult?"

The third-party planning now involves some members of Congress, conservative blogger Erick Erickson told CNN's Gloria Borger, without naming them. “Planning is continuing for a third party,” he said. “I don’t necessarily read this as Ryan endorsing a third party, but it gives motivation to people who want a third party to continue down that track. I have had several congressmen reach out to me to encourage a third party because they are worried about turnout in (November) because they want an alternative to Trump.”

The newest passenger on the Trump Train: Rick Perry, the former Texas governor who once called Trump a "cancer on conservatism." He told CNN's Dana Bash (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/05/politics/rick-perry-endorses-donald-trump/index.html) : "He is not a perfect man. But what I do believe is that he loves this country and he will surround himself with capable, experienced people and he will listen to them."
Buzzing
Donald Trump offered his thoughts for a happy Cinco de Mayo while eating a taco (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/728297587418247168) : "I love Hispanics!"
Last Call

** Clinton email probe: FBI interviews Abedin, other aides
------------------------------------------------------------

Some of Hillary Clinton's closest aides, including her longtime adviser Huma Abedin, have provided interviews to federal investigators as the FBI probe into the security of her private email server nears completion, U.S. officials briefed on the investigation tell CNN's Evan Perez, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/05/politics/fbi-interviews-huma-abedin-clinton-aide/index.html) . The investigation is ongoing, but so far investigators haven't found evidence to prove that Clinton willfully violated the law, the U.S. officials say. In recent weeks, multiple aides have been interviewed -- some more than once, the officials said.

A Clinton interview still to come: A date for an FBI interview of Clinton has not been set, these officials said, but is expected in the coming weeks.

The response from Clinton's campaign, from spokesman Brian Fallon: "From the start, Hillary Clinton has offered to answer any questions that would help the Justice Department complete its review, and we hope and expect that anyone else who is asked would do the same. We are confident the review will conclude that nothing inappropriate took place."

** Setting the expectations: Clinton and Trump are both disliked
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Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will both enter the general election as the most disliked nominees in 10 election cycles -- and Americans' feelings about them are intense. Writes FiveThirtyEight.com's Harry Enten (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/) : "These are people who don’t just like or dislike the candidates, they really like or dislike them. No past candidate comes close to Clinton, and especially Trump, in terms of engendering strong dislike a little more than six months before the election."

History is working against Clinton, writes Yahoo's Matt Bai (https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-has-the-map-on-1421857612800054.html) : "In 1947, Congress passed the 22nd Amendment, which said no one could be elected to the presidency more than twice. In the 65 years since the last state ratified that amendment -- comprising 16 elections, and six elections following an eight-year presidency -- only one nominee has managed to win a third consecutive term for his party. That was George H.W. Bush, who overcame a double-digit deficit late in the campaign, thanks in part to one of the most ineffectual Democratic campaigns in history."

Hillary's better off than Bill was, writes Joe Klein for Time magazine (http://time.com/4319141/clintons-donald-trump/?iid=toc_050516) : "He had larger problems than an email server: He had recently been found out as a Vietnam draft dodger and a womanizer. People called him Slick Willie. Within weeks, he would be in a deeper, darker hole than Hillary has experienced this year -- he would be running third, behind George H.W. Bush and the independent Ross Perot. By June, only 13% of the public thought him trustworthy. He was toast."
Straight Up

** "I don't know of anybody who really believes that."
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**
-- Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake to CNN's Manu Raju, calling Donald Trump's border wall proposal "nutty" and saying he can't yet support Trump's presidential campaign.
------------------------------------------------------------

Closing Time

The Republican National Committee denied a report that its staffers were told to leave (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/278851-rnc-denies-staffers-told-to-back-trump-or-leave) if they couldn't support Donald Trump. ... The GOP Senate candidate who won't vote for (http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/meet-republican-senate-candidate-wont-vote-trump) Trump: Washington state's Chris Vance. ... The Rolling Stones have asked Trump to stop using their music at his rally -- news that made for pun-tastic song-title-related headlines. Among them: "Get off my song! (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/05/politics/rolling-stones-donald-trump/) " "Don't start us up again (http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/rolling-stones-trump-222832) ." "Trump can't get what he wants (http://www.tmz.com/2016/05/04/donald-trump-rollings-stones-cease-and-desist-campaign/) ."
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Your bartender for ** CNN Politics' Nightcap (http://cnn.it/nightcap)
is Eric Bradner (** @ericbradner (http://twitter.com/ericbradner)
) — Tips, thoughts and beer recommendations are always welcome at ** [email-masked] (mailto:[email-masked])
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