Subject: First Draft on Politics: Our Woman in New York: Subplots Follow the Front-Runners
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Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2016 07:20:57 -0400

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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont spoke at a campaign rally in Hunter's Point South Park in Queens on Monday.

Damon Winter/The New York Times

Our Woman in New York: Subplots Follow the Front-Runners

By MAGGIE HABERMAN

Good Tuesday morning.

Though Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton are the favorites to win the New York primary, there are also some tantalizing subplots that could help direct the remaining stages of the races.

Turnout

In 2008, the turnout in the state Democratic primary was at a high, with more than 1.89 million people voting for either Mrs. Clinton, then a senator from New York, or her rival, Barack Obama, then a senator from Illinois.

And more than 670,000 Republicans voted in a primary that, by then, was clearly leaning toward Senator John McCain of Arizona.

The likelihood of the Democratic turnout reaching the 2008 level is slim. But the Republicans could exceed their 2008 numbers given the enthusiasm that Mr. Trump has set off in pockets of the state, including Staten Island.

Black voters in Brooklyn

Large sections of heavily African-American areas in the city, particularly in Brooklyn, propelled Mr. Obama to victory in 2008. The votes were a shift in the black power structure of a city where Harlem had long been the center.

Representative Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat from central Brooklyn, was a key Obama backer in 2008 and is now supporting Mrs. Clinton.

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Mrs. Clinton’s rival, spoke derisively during their debate in Brooklyn last week of her previous wins in the South, comments in which voters could hear a thinly veiled jab at primaries with lots of black voters.

A key threshold

Mr. Trump heads into Tuesday’s vote with a double-digit lead in the polls. The chances of his losing New York are remote, but his rivals, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, are trying hard to keep his share of the vote below 50 percent to limit the number of delegates he can accrue.

The geography of victory for Mr. Trump, who barely campaigned in New York City, is also significant. Can he capture congressional districts in Manhattan, where Republicans are far from plentiful and are aligned more with, say, George E. Pataki, the former governor? If he can, it suggests he might still be able to grow support in the coming months if he tightens his message and becomes more disciplined.

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What We're Watching Today

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Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton will be on hand as New York City votes, while the other candidates move on to focus on the next voting states, especially Pennsylvania, which votes on April 26 and has 210 Democratic delegates and 71 Republican at stake.

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Mr. Sanders will hold rallies in Erie, Pa., and at Penn State; Mr. Cruz will hold his New York election night party in Philadelphia, and Mr. Kasich, who made a recent run of New York’s culinary hotspots, will appear at the Original Oyster House in Pittsburgh, before heading to Maryland, which also votes on April 26 and has 38 Republican delegates and 118 Democratic at stake.

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President Obama will depart for his trip to Europe and to Saudi Arabia.

Sam Hodgson for The New York Times

Pressure on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton to Shine at Home

By ALAN RAPPEPORT

The five remaining presidential candidates dashed across New York City and elsewhere in the state, making final pitches before the primary and assailing rivals as unelectable or worse.

Justin T. Gellerson for The New York Times

Potential G.O.P. Convention Fight Puts Older Hands in Sudden Demand

By JEREMY W. PETERS

Delegate courting that may require more smarts than smartphones is upending the idea of politics as a young person’s game, with many veterans of the 1976 battle returning.

Danny Ghitis for The New York Times

Tenants Thwarted Donald Trump’s Central Park Real Estate Ambitions

By JONATHAN MAHLER

On the eve of New York’s Republican primary, some remember when Mr. Trump engaged in a different type of battle in his home state: a dispute over rent-controlled apartments on Central Park South.

Nathaniel Brooks for The New York Times

The 2016 Race

The Most Important Primary Is ... Wait, Indiana?

By NATE COHN

It sounds strange, but Donald Trump’s quest to secure a majority of Republican delegates may hinge on the state’s primary.

Ben and Jerry Deliver Free Ice Cream and Politics in Washington

By JADA F. SMITH

Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield, the Ben & Jerry’s co-founders, held an event at George Washington University, where they scooped ice cream, spoke about campaign finance overhaul and showed support for Bernie Sanders.

First Draft

Top Donald Trump Campaign Aide Quits in Shakeup

By MAGGIE HABERMAN AND ASHLEY PARKER

The national field director for Mr. Trump’s campaign — who is a loyalist to Corey Lewandowski, the embattled campaign manager — resigned in a letter to Mr. Trump on Monday afternoon amid a staffing shakeup.

First Draft

Hillary Clinton Pushes Bill to Allow Families of Terror Victims to Sue Foreign Governments in U.S. Courts

By AMY CHOZICK

By supporting legislation that would allow the families of victims of terrorist attacks to hold foreign governments accountable in American courts, Mrs. Clinton is opposing the Obama administration’s efforts to scuttle the bill.

Stay tuned throughout the day: Follow us on Twitter @NYTPolitics and on Facebook for First Draft updates.

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Bernie Sanders Gets the Celebrity Treatment in Midtown Manhattan

By YAMICHE ALCINDOR

Mr. Sanders walked about 14 Midtown blocks, shaking hands, hugging people and waving as several cars honked horns. Many people he encountered froze with their mouths hanging open or locked in a smile, a day before voting takes place in the New York primary.

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Supreme Court Appears Divided on Obama’s Immigration Plan

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During an extended argument, the justices occasionally paused to acknowledge realities outside the courtroom in connection with the president’s plan to shield millions from deportation.

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What We’re Reading Elsewhere

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ABC’s Eyewitness News in New York details data compiled by Facebook of “the top issues that are resonating with New Yorkers.”

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The Washington Post says that Mr. Trump now has “only one path” to the nomination, and that he “has himself to blame.”

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And The Huffington Post spent some time with the musician Carole King as she canvassed Greenwich Village in Manhattan in a get-out-the-vote effort for Mrs. Clinton.

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