Subject: Ted Cruz 2016: Inside Cruz’s camp, confidence crumbling - POLITICO
From: "Bennett, Eric" <[email-masked]>
To: Comm_D <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 May 2016 05:58:14 -0700

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/ted-cruz-campaign-nervous-222675

Ted Cruz 2016: Inside Cruz’s camp, confidence crumbling - POLITICO

BURLINGAME, Calif. — Ted Cruz is speaking confidently about knocking off Donald Trump to take the GOP nomination, but his top staffers admit they’re getting nervous.

In interviews, several aides, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed growing alarm that Cruz would lose Indiana’s primary on Tuesday — an outcome that would be a major blow to his hopes of holding Trump below the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination on the party convention’s first ballot. The aides concede that, without a win in an Indiana primary where 57 delegates are at stake, Cruz’s shot at the nomination would significantly narrow.

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And while the Texas senator has closed the gap in Indiana in recent days, he still trails Trump and his decision to tap Carly Fiorina as a running mate has provided only a modest boost in the state, according to sources familiar with the campaign’s internal deliberations.

Within the campaign, some are turning to the question of what’s next. One senior aide said there had been no discussion about dropping out before the final primary contests are held on June 7 but noted that Cruz wouldn’t be eager to prolong a campaign he was convinced he couldn’t win.

Many top figures in the party are convinced that a loss on Tuesday would be, for all intents and purposes, the end of the road. “A Cruz loss in Indiana means lights out,” said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Game, set, match.”

The private angst within the campaign stands in stark contrast to public statements from Cruz himself, as the candidate showed no hint of concern in an appearance before the California Republican Party convention here on Saturday.

“We are all in. We are going to be competing for all 172 delegates in California and in all 53 congressional districts. It’s going to be a battle on the ground, district-by-district-by-district,” he said.

Cruz said California would decide whether Trump wins the nomination outright or whether there’s a contested convention when it holds its primary on June 7. The Texas senator spent part of the day meeting with state political activists and officials and secured the endorsement of former Gov. Pete Wilson.

In an exchange with reporters after, Cruz pushed back on a question about his path forward and whether he still expected to secure the nomination, insisting that his campaign was “absolutely about winning.”

“At this point no one is getting to 1,237. I’m not getting to 1,237 before the convention, but neither is Donald Trump,” Cruz said. “I believe in Cleveland we’re going to earn a majority of support. The reason why Donald Trump is so desperately trying to convince everybody — and why his media acolytes are echoing the message — that the race is over is because Donald knows in Cleveland he will not be able to earn the support of a majority of delegates.”

Addressing the convention on Saturday evening, Fiorina echoed the message. “Donald Trump was here yesterday telling you, 'It’s over. He's won, it's over.' And the media is playing along. 'It's over, yeah, it's over,'" she said. “We don’t have a nominee until that nominee has 1,237 votes. Donald Trump doesn’t have it, Donald Trump isn’t going to get it.”

Trump, looking to project an image of inevitability after a string of dominating wins in the northeast, is taking his most aggressive steps yet to coalesce party support around him. The real estate mogul secured the support of a handful of Republican lawmakers last week, and Trump aides say they’re preparing to roll out additional endorsements following a prospective Indiana win. Over the next two weeks, Trump is expected to wage a concerted campaign to woo skeptical Republican Party establishment figures, hoping to convince them that the long and bitter primary race is finally coming to a close.

The Cruz comeback plan in Indiana, where polling has consistently shown Trump with an advantage, has largely centered on the surprise Fiorina rollout, which the campaign hoped would generate buzz. But while the launch drew attention, the Texas senator has yet to overtake Trump in the state.

While aides didn’t dismiss the possibility of an upset, they acknowledged that polling had consistently shown Cruz behind. A loss, they worried, could intensify questions about his staying power and hamper fundraising.

Cruz is also likely to face growing pressure from party leaders, many of whom are eager to begin the process of uniting a divided party ahead of what will be a challenging general election. In recent days, several state party chairs have held private discussions about rallying behind Trump if he wins on Tuesday.

Cruz isn’t the only one taking stock of his prospects. Appearing before the California Republican Party on Saturday night, John Kasich appeared to acknowledge his fading prospects.

"I've been endorsed by over 70 newspapers,” the Ohio governor said. “Wish it mattered."

As they surveyed the political landscape, many convention attendees said they were marveling at a long and bitter primary campaign that may finally be winding down. Indiana, they said, may prove to be the state that firms up the nomination for Trump — or that gives his rivals new life.

“Momentum matters,” said Jason Roe, a national Republican strategist, summing up the sentiments of those who made their way to Burlingame. “Right now the mainstream media is coronating Trump prematurely and any turnaround in Indiana changes that narrative and reinvigorates anti-Trump Republicans.”

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