Subject: Clinton, Trump poised for big night
From: CNN Politics Nightcap <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2016 00:03:31 +0000
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CNN Politics: Nightcap
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April 26, 2016
by Eric Bradner
Welcome to the CNN Politics Nightcap and good Tuesday evening from Knightstown, Indiana, where Ted Cruz will try to pivot after Donald Trump is expected to sweep tonight's five East Coast Republican primaries. Hillary Clinton will try to put the Democratic nomination out of Bernie Sanders' reach and force the Vermont senator to re-evaluate what he'll do next if she can pull off a big night of her own. Your bartender is Eric Bradner (http://www.cnn.com/profiles/eric-bradner?cid=nl_pol_071915_profile?sr=nl_pol_072215_bradner) . The tip jar: [email-masked] (mailto:[email-masked]) .

** Clinton, Trump look to railroad foes in tonight's Acela primaries
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Donald Trump could enjoy a five-state sweep. Hillary Clinton could beat Bernie Sanders in at least four contests. And both front-runners could take a big step toward their party's presidential nomination in tonight's "Acela primaries" -- a slate of contests in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island. There are 172 GOP delegates up for grabs -- the same number California has to offer on the last day of the Republican contest. Polls suggest Trump is set for a sweep, taking a big step toward the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination and stunting the momentum of his foes, even after Ted Cruz and John Kasich seek to divvy up the states that are up next. CNN's Stephen Collinson has the lead story on the night's contests (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/primary-results-highlights/index.html) .

What's the deal with Pennsylvania? The state's Republican winner gets 17 of its 71 delegates. The other 54, though, are much more complicated. That's because they are essentially elected on the honor system. Voters first select their preferred candidate -- that's the statewide vote. Then, voters in each of the 18 congressional districts pick three delegates for the convention. Many of those delegates have pledged their support to Trump, Cruz or Kasich, but the catch is that they are technically unbound and beholden to nobody -- not the voters, candidates or Republican Party. CNN's Gregory Krieg and Marshall Cohen explain (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/pennsylvania-delegates-trump-kasich-cruz/index.html) .

Big spending in the Keystone State: From CNN's Dana Bash: The Cruz campaign spent about half a million dollars to help elect unbound delegates in Pennsylvania's primary, according to a source familiar with the process. Since delegates are elected directly by voters, and 54 are unbound, the Cruz campaign invested in helping with the grassroots campaigns of several. The hope, of course, is that if those delegates win, though unbound, they will feel compelled to support Cruz – especially in the first ballot at the convention. A source familiar with the Trump campaign operation says they spent about the same on voter ID cards and other help for the delegates.

Clinton will try to win a big share of the 384 delegates available on the Democratic side and, finally, put Sanders in the rear-view mirror. He won't drop out after Tuesday's results -- he has too much cash and too much support not to continue -- but his campaign could have some assessing to do. Senior strategist Tad Devine told The New York Times' Yamiche Alcindor  (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/26/bernie-sanders-to-reassess-candidacy-after-tuesdays-vote-but-hell-stay-in-race/) that "if we are sitting here and there’s no sort of mathematical way to (win the nomination), we will be upfront about that." He said Sanders' campaign will need to "reassess" its strategies -- though the senator won't exit the race.

Pressure on Sanders? Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid says his colleague from Vermont can't win the party's nomination -- but he won't call for him to exit the race. Reid told reporters on Capitol Hill (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/harry-reid-bernie-sanders/index.html)  he was comfortable with Sanders' vow to take the campaign to the convention in July, saying he "should do what he has to do."

** 2016 campaign's next big battleground: Indiana
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Just like he did in Wisconsin, Ted Cruz hopes to deliver Donald Trump a big blow next Tuesday in Indiana's primary -- stunting the GOP front-runner's path to 1,237 by claiming most of the state's 57 delegates. But Indiana isn't Wisconsin: Local talk radio isn't as dominant. The anti-Trump effort isn't as heavy on the airwaves. The state is less educated overall. And many of the state's most influential Republicans are staying out of the race, focusing on a white-hot Senate primary between Reps. Todd Young and Marlin Stutzman and the campaigns to replace them in the 9th and 3rd districts, instead. As the race shifts in the Hoosier State -- Cruz is holding his election-night event in rural Knightstown this evening, and Donald Trump will campaign Wednesday evening alongside former Indiana University basketball coach Bobby Knight -- here are two factors we're watching:

What's a suburban moderate to do? Even though Indiana is a rural, agriculture-heavy state, wealth and power in the state GOP is concentrated in the doughnut counties surrounding Indianapolis. Particularly important: Hamilton County, the home of affluent suburbs Carmel, Fishers and Noblesville, just to the capital’s northeast. These were Mitch Daniels Republicans -- heartbroken that the popular former governor passed on a presidential run in 2012, and downright depressed when Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and John Kasich each departed the race or gave up on Indiana. Cruz will hope to consolidate this group’s support, but ideologically, they don’t have much in common: Daniels famously called for a “truce” on the social issues that Cruz makes a focal point of his campaign. The awkwardness of that fit was palpable at a state GOP dinner a week ago, where Cruz got a lukewarm reception.

Ripping open the social issues: Gov. Mike Pence's first term has been marked by controversies over legislation pushed by social conservatives -- including a constitutional same-sex marriage ban, a measure that allowed businesses to turn away LGBT customers in the name of religious freedom and controversial new abortion restrictions. These are touchy subjects in Indiana, where they've driven such a wedge between Daniels backers and Pence supporters that those two factions now look like two different political parties. For Cruz, though, they could be key. He'll need to turn out evangelical voters who are sick and tired of the backlash against issues they hold dear. A Pence endorsement, if he can get the governor off the sidelines, would be helpful.
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Buzzing

It's the era of pop politics -- which Variety profiles (http://variety.com/2016/biz/news/politics-hollywood-2016-presidential-race-1201760170/) with this colorful cover.

Last Call

** Kasich gave up on Indiana's votes -- but not its money, delegates
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John Kasich has closed his Indiana offices and won't campaign in the state, leaving it to Ted Cruz. But he kept his plans to spend Tuesday afternoon there, meeting first with about 45 delegates and potential delegates, meeting with Gov. Mike Pence, then holding a fundraiser -- for two key reasons: Most of Indiana's delegates actually say they'd back Kasich on the second ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and much of the state's Republican establishment is made of old Mitch Daniels supporters who like the Ohio governor.

Kasich missed a deadline in Oregon -- which, along with New Mexico, is a state Cruz was leaving to him -- to submit information for a voter pamphlet that the state sends to every voter. It's a cheap, easy way to get exposure, and could cost the Ohio governor, The Register-Guard's Saul Hubbard reports (http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/34306027-75/no-john-kasich-in-oregons-voters-pamphlet.html.csp) .

** Tonight in Maryland, Pennsylvania: Senate Democratic primaries
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The anti-establishment sentiment among Democratic voters will be tested tonight in Maryland and Pennsylvania, where two Senate candidates backed by their party's establishment -- Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Katie McGinty, respectively -- face off against insurgents in Rep. Donna Edwards and former Rep. Joe Sestak. The Wall Street Journal's Kristina Peterson previewed those contests (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/04/26/congressional-primaries-in-pa-md-to-test-anti-establishment-wave-among-democrats/) , writing that "Tuesday’s batch of East Coast primaries will hold clues as to how much appetite Democratic voters have to elect candidates challenging the party establishment for House and Senate seats."

** The Trump University fight is going to trial
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From CNN's Jeanne Sahadi (http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/26/news/trump-university/index.html) : The slugfest between Donald Trump and New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman over Trump University continues. On Tuesday, a New York court ruled that Schneiderman's $40 million civil suit alleging fraud against Trump University would still have to go to trial, even though Schneiderman had asked the court for a ruling based on the evidence already presented. No date has been set for a trial. But according to a statement from Schneiderman, the judge "indicated her intention to move as expeditiously as possible."
Straight Up

** "There are two candidates in this race who can win the nomination, me or Donald Trump. There are two candidates in this race who can win the general, me and John Kasich. There’s only one person who can do both, win the nomination and win the general."
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**
-- Ted Cruz, arguing that voting for him in Republican primaries is only logical, in a radio interview with Philadelphia's Chris Stigall.
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Tipsy
Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill throws some serious shade (https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/724950049264906240) in John Kasich's direction.
Closing Time

Jane Sanders, wife of Bernie Sanders, says the couple will only release back tax returns (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/jane-sanders-tax-returns/index.html) when Hillary Clinton releases transcripts of her paid Wall Street speeches. ... Lena Dunham, of HBO's "Girls," says she'll move to Canada (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/lena-dunham-donald-trump-canada/index.html) if Donald Trump is elected. ... Former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell's criminal case is making for strange (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/strange-bedfellows-in-mcdonnell-case-222445) bedfellows.
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Your bartender for ** CNN Politics' Nightcap (http://cnn.it/nightcap)
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