Subject: 2016 GOP HIT on HRC
From: "Hendricks, Lauren" <[email-masked]>
To: Tony Carrk <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Brinster, Jeremy" <[email-masked]>, "Crystal, Andy" <[email-masked]>, "Dillon, Lauren" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 May 2016 12:15:02 -0700

NRSC Tweet
5/10/16 3:11 PM
Read Here<https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/730112978926882816>
POLLING UPDATE: Hillary isn't doing any favors for swing-state Dems. #PASen<https://twitter.com/search?q=%23PASen> #OHSen<https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OHSen> #FLSen<https://twitter.com/search?q=%23FLSen> politico.com/story/2016/05/...<https://t.co/ggSmMjDoHC> pic.twitter.com/7sM5ih3Ejy<https://t.co/7sM5ih3Ejy>
[Media preview]
Dead heat: Trump, Clinton tied in 3 swing-state polls<http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania-222994>

The poll shows close races in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

By NICK GASS<http://www.politico.com/staff/nick-gass>

05/10/16 06:00 AM EDT

Buckle up for the next six months: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University survey<https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345> released Tuesday.

With voters split along lines of gender, race and age, the presumptive Republican nominee and the likely Democratic nominee appear poised for tight battles in those states, though Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders performs better against Trump than Clinton does and is also seen more favorably by voters in all three states. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.

Story Continued Below

In Florida, Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 42 percent, while Sanders earned 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent. While Clinton holds a 13-point advantage among Florida women - 48 percent to 35 percent - Trump's lead among men is equally large, at 49 percent to 36 percent. Independent Florida voters are split, 39 percent to 39 percent, while along racial lines, white voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate 52 percent to 33 percent. Among nonwhite voters, 63 percent to 20 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Clinton's favorability in Florida is a net negative 20 points (37 percent to 57 percent), though Trump earned the same numbers. For Sanders, 43 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, 41 percent unfavorable and 14 percent said they did not know enough to have an opinion.

In Ohio, registered voters preferred Trump to Clinton, 43 percent to 39 percent, while Sanders edged Trump 43 percent to 41 percent. Trump leads among men in Ohio, 51 percent to 36 percent, while women prefer Clinton in the state 43 percent to 36 percent. While 49 percent to 32 percent of white voters go for the Republican candidate, a whopping 76 percent to 14 percent of nonwhite voters said they will go for the Democratic candidate. Among voters ages 18 to 34, Clinton leads 43 percent to 39 percent, while voters older than 65 preferred Trump 46 percent to 40 percent. Among independents, 40 percent said they would back Trump and 37 percent would go for Clinton.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads 43 percent to 42 percent, mirroring the gender and racial gaps in the other swing states. Among women, Clinton leads 51 percent to 32 percent, while Trump leads with men 54 percent to 33 percent. Clinton holds a 7-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34 (49 percent to 42 percent), while Trump commands the same level of support among voters 65 and older. White voters said they would support the Republican candidate 48 percent to 37 percent, while nonwhite voters said they would support the Democrat, 74 percent to 14 percent.

At roughly the same point in 2012, President Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by single digits in Ohio and in Pennsylvania, while Romney led by 1 percentage point in Florida. (Obama ended up winning all three, all by single digits.) Four years earlier, eventual Democratic nominee Obama trailed Arizona Sen. John McCain by 1 point each in Florida and Ohio, but led by 9 points in Pennsylvania. (Obama also won all three states in November, winning Florida and Ohio by single digits and Pennsylvania by 10 points.)

Regardless of how they plan to vote, registered voters in all three states gave Trump the edge on matters related to the economy, as well as on terrorism, though on the latter issue the two candidates are within the margin of error.

When it comes to being honest and trustworthy, neither Trump nor Clinton performed particularly well, though the Manhattan real-estate mogul outperformed the former secretary of state by 9, 8 and 9 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively.

Both did better on the issue of being a strong leader. Here, too, Trump outperformed Clinton. Where Clinton has a net positive rating of 8 points on the leadership issue in Florida, Trump has a net positive rating of 23 points. While 10 percent more Ohioans said Clinton has strong leadership qualities than not, 25 percent more said the same of Trump in the critical Midwestern swing state. And in Pennsylvania, Clinton's net positive rating on being a strong enough leader stands at 18 points, while Trump's is larger, at 25 points.

Clinton outscored Trump in all three states with respect to whether either candidate cares about the needs and problems of people like them, though more people in each state feel that neither does care.

Voters in all three states indicated that the former secretary of state has a better temperament than Trump if faced with an international crisis as president, with only about a third in each state saying they think Trump does and a little more than half in each state indicating that Clinton has the proper temperament.

Asked who has the higher moral standards, voters were slightly more supportive of Clinton, with 46 percent to 41 percent of Florida voters indicating as such, along with 43 percent to 39 percent in Ohio and 48 percent to 39 percent in Pennsylvania.

More than seven in 10 voters in Florida and Ohio and more than six in 10 in Pennsylvania said they support efforts requiring voters to display photo identification at the time of voting. On the issue of illegal immigration, majorities in each state said immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally should be able to stay and eventually apply for citizenship, while smaller pluralities said they should not stay and even fewer chose the other option: allow the undocumented immigrants to stay without being allowed to apply for citizenship.

As far as building a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico, as Trump has vowed to do as president, voters were largely split. In Florida, support and opposition to the wall was tied at 48 percent, while 52 percent of Ohio voters said they would oppose the idea compared to 45 percent in support. About 51 percent of Pennsylvania voters said they are opposed to building the wall, while 45 percent support it.

Quinnipiac conducted the survey via landlines and cellphones from April 27 to May 8, polling 1,051 registered Florida voters, 1,042 registered Ohio voters and 1,077 registered Pennsylvania voters. For all samples, the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Lauren Hendricks