Subject: The 5-Minute Fix: More bad math for Bernie
From: The Washington Post <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 18 May 2016 17:57:03 -0400

Read on the Web >> <http://link.washingtonpost.com/public/6750901>

THE 5-MINUTE FIX
 
Keeping up with politics is easy now

By Amber Phillips

Let's explain why things aren't looking good for Bernie Sanders to get the Democratic nomination -- as we do, in one chart:
(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)
The Fix's Philip Bump, who made the chart, elaborates more on why that's so bad for Sanders: "Sanders needs the light-blue bars on the graph above to be taller than the dark blue line if he is to make headway. Only a few times has he accomplished that."
Put another way, yes, Sanders has had a number of wins lately. And yes, he's narrowed Hillary Clinton's once massive, double-digit polling lead to single digits over the last year.

But to catch up to Clinton's delegate lead -- which is the only lead that matters right now -- he would need to win 67 percent of all remaining pledged delegates. That means he needs to win really big in New Jersey and California. And that doesn't even include superdelegates.
"If you include superdelegates, among whom Clinton has a big lead, Sanders needs to win more than 90 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to clinch the nomination," Bump writes. "Which means, essentially, that he needs to win every delegate, since winning 85 percent of the vote in Democratic contests earns you 100 percent of the delegate total."
Such a reality would be a total reversal of how the Democratic race has been playing out so far. Sanders has won some big states (like Michigan) but by relatively small margins. Upcoming California and New Jersey look better for Clinton than Sanders. And it's notable that the demographic groups that preferred Clinton nine months ago haven't really changed. Women and voters over 50 tend to like her in larger numbers. The reverse is true for Sanders.
Two more charts to drive home the point that this race really hasn't changed much -- and that's bad news for Sanders:
(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)
&nbsp;
(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)
What we know about Donald Trump's Supreme Court picks
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Basically, they're kind of boring. And Trump meant for them to be that way.
The backstory: True to his promise, now that he's the de facto nominee, Trump released a short list of 11 people he'd consider nominating to the Supreme Court.
Some are pretty traditional -- like Iowa federal judge Steven Colloton, the former Yale Law Journal editor who clerked for Justice William Rehnquist. Others are slightly off the beaten path, like Thomas Lee, one of the top justices on Utah's state Supreme Court and the brother of U.S. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). And one is a serial tweeter kind of like Trump himself, though Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willett has used the very same medium to make fun of Trump:

But overall, the list was filled with fairly traditional conservative candidates -- mostly white males and mostly from the Midwest. And that's exactly what Trump wanted to happen. He was trying to assuage criticism on the right that he's not conservative enough and criticism on the left that he'd nominate someone totally crazy. It just may have worked: Many conservative groups praised his list.
Obama's new overtime rules, by the numbers

And now we have something slightly new for you. Every Wednesday, The 5-Minute Fix will be partnering with our friends over at Mic, a news site for millennials, to bring you yet another perspective on the day's political news.
Our first installment comes from reporter Zeeshan Aleem, who helps put the Obama administration's new regulation increasing overtime for millions of Americans into perspective. The key number? Two. The change, which goes into effect in December, doubles the salary threshold that requires employers to pay their salaried workers overtime. It was $23,660; it will be $47,476 a year.
So who are the people this will affect?
The Fix's Janell Ross also found that they are the kind of people who, generally, tend to vote Democratic -- more women than men, and black and Latino workers make up about three out of 10 people in this salary range.
It's a reminder, she says, that the modern working class is much broader than the section of mostly white, blue collar workers we tend to associate with Trump supporters.

That's it for today! Talk Friday, Fixees
Kinda cool/dangerous. (giphy.com)

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