Subject: Stitch: CRUZ-KASICH FORM ODD COUPLE, CHRISTIE MANAGER KEN McKAY JOINS TRUMP CAMPAIGN, PENNSYLVANIA CHEATSHEET
From: Jonathan Allen <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2016 12:33:25 +0000
List-Id: dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8fmc list <dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8f.326717.list-id.mcsv.net>

** THE BIG QUESTION

What's the most important takeaway from the Cruz-Kasich pact?

CRUZ-KASICH CREATE FORMAL ALLIANCE TO STOP TRUMP BY CEDING STATES TO EACH OTHER
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Aides to Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced late Sunday that their campaigns would work in concert to try to counter Donald Trump in upcoming primaries — and they encouraged allies, from voters to technically independent SuperPACs, to fall in line with the plan.
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"Our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that allies of both campaigns would follow our lead."

—Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe/Press release

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"We will shift our campaign’s resources west and give the Cruz campaign a clear path in Indiana. ... We would expect independent third-party groups to do the same and honor the commitments made by the Cruz and Kasich campaigns.

—Kasich strategist Jeff Weaver/Press release

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TRUMP FIRED BACK, accusing his rivals of colluding and vowing to defeat them anyway "for the good of the Republican Party and our country."
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"Because of me, everyone now sees that the Republican primary system is totally rigged. When two candidates who have no path to victory get together to stop a candidate who is expanding the party by millions of voters, (all of whom will drop out if I am not in the race) it is yet another example of everything that is wrong in Washington and our political system."

—Donald Trump/Press release

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IT PROBABLY WON'T WORK, Deana Bass, the national press secretary on Ben Carson's presidential campaign, tells Stitch.
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"Poll after poll indicates Mr. Trump will not fare well in a general election against either Democratic nominee. However, in the primary Mr. Trump has garnered unflinching support from Republicans who are sickened by Beltway political power brokers. To Trump loyalists, this Cruz/Kasich alliance will look like the political class ignoring the will of the people in a desperate attempt to hold on to power. It will likely backfire and only serve to energize Mr. Trump’s followers."

There are scores of ways to look at this. Here are a handful:
* The likelihood of the plot backfiring is high, but the risk is relatively low because Trump has a very visible path to the nomination right now. The term "Hail Mary" doesn't do this odd-couple stratagem justice. Or, as JOHN McCORMICK of Bloomberg Politics led his story:

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"In a move that may be too little too late ..."

—John McCormick/Bloomberg Politics (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/fdc89165481724aec8746e51591b2e24)

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* What if it does work? Even if Trump is denied the nomination on the first ballot, someone has to wrest it away from him at the convention.
* Cruz has finally decided to play nice with others — a characteristic he's not known for — after his team rejected a similar deal last month, according to MATT FLEGENHEIMER & JONATHAN MARTIN (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news)  of the New York Times. It's driven by self-interest, but nonetheless noteworthy that Cruz was willing to beat his sword into a plowshare — even temporarily.
* The brazen call for outside groups to help Cruz win Indiana and Kasich win Oregon and New Mexico is probably kosher because it was made publicly, rather than through backroom coordination, but two campaigns essentially directing outside spending is a new wrinkle for campaign-finance junkies.
* This is the formalization of a dynamic that already was taking root but needed encouragement from the campaigns themselves. On Friday, former Rep. Mark Souder of Indiana predicted on Sidewire that Cruz would benefit from Kasich supporters moving in his direction, as Souder and his wife would.

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"Cruz will gain. For example, Diane and I polled Kasich but will be switching to Cruz."

—Former Rep. Mark Souder/Sidewire (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/aa644ee420594c3a8d0f65abf3933ada/commentary/7bda95ee-cf9a-4592-899d-fa343aa446a1)

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* Remember way back in March when Mitt Romney suggested such strategic voting?SEEMA MEHTA of the L.A. Times does.

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"I would vote for Marco Rubio in Florida, for John Kasich in Ohio and for Ted Cruz or whichever one of the other two contenders has the best chance of beating Mr. Trump in a given state.”

—Mitt Romney/via L.A. Times (http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-cruz-kasich-strategy-20160424-story.html)

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* KATIE GLUECK & KYLE CHENEY of Politico point out an unintended consequence of the deal.

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"It puts Indiana's handful of pro-Kasich delegates in an awkward spot: defending a decision to back a candidate that is intentionally forfeiting their state. Kasich's field offices in Indiana are expected to shutter this week, and he canceled his remaining events there."

—Glueck & Cheney/Politico (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/96da8ad50cbcc62ebcb008f84ef2158c)

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ONE THING THE DEAL MAY DO is buy more time. Trump is expected to win big in Tuesday's East Coast primary states, but Cruz and Kasich may have given members of the media enough reason to hold off on declaring Trump the presumptive nominee tomorrow night.

The premium on talking to delegates who are unbound or not bound after the first ballot at the GOP convention just went up even higher. It will be interesting to see which of them love the Machiavellian maneuver and which of them are turned off by it.

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**
TRUMP ADDS FORMER CHRISTIE CAMPAIGN MANAGER KEN MCKAY
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JENNIFER JACOBS of Bloomberg Politics scoops the Trump campaign's hiring of Ken McKay (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/b0f9f7bebf2251bfc87bd6b8588b8a5a) , who had served as Chris Christie's campaign manager. As Jennifer points out, McKay is the third manager of a onetime rival's campaign to join Trump's operation. Before him, Ed Brookover (Carson) and Rick Wiley (Scott Walker) had gone Trump.
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“This is a serious strategist and tactician. ... This is not a guy who wastes his time going on cable TV and running his mouth. Trump hiring Ken McKay is a bad thing for the Ted Cruz campaign, I can assure you of that.”

—Curt Anderson, former Bobby Jindal strategist/Bloomberg Politics (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/b0f9f7bebf2251bfc87bd6b8588b8a5a)

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** TRIVIAL PURSUITS
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ABOUT TODAY
It's been 63 years since Watson & Crick published their findings on DNA.

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA
Harris & Clarence Fahnestock were brothers. The former worked for Civil War financier Jay Cooke and the latter has a state park named after him in New York.

TODAY'S TRIVIA
Which future U.S. president was the lead attorney in a case that led to the desegregation of New York City's streetcars?

The first person to send the correct answer to [email-masked] wins endless admiration and the right to pose tomorrow's trivia question.

PLEASE SEND TIPS, suggestions, comments, complaints, corrections andthe remaining episodes of this season of Game of Thrones [email-masked].

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**
PENNSYLVANIA CHEATSHEET
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Bloomberg's GREG GIROUX graces us with another primary cheatsheet. This one is from the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, which is one of five states voting Tuesday.
* It includes political and demographic information about each of the congressional districts.
* CLICK HERE (http://bit.ly/1TrZNAI)  for Greg's Pennsylvania primary primer.

—30—
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