Subject: Stitch — Sidewire Chats: Mike Murphy & David Axelrod, plus Alex Wagner; Why Paul Ryan is Likely To Retreat; How the WH Duped Everyone on Iran Deal
From: Jonathan Allen <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 6 May 2016 13:05:08 +0000
List-Id: dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8fmc list <dff5dea186e38c29c57ca6f8f.326717.list-id.mcsv.net>

** WHAT'S THE STITCH?
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Stitch is a morning news speed-read highlighting the work and insights of Newsmakers that is followed by a daily chat on hot political topics.

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**
TODAY'S SIDEWIRE CHATS
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* At 9:30 a.m. ET, ALEX WAGNER joins the Stitch to talk about politics and her new role at The Atlantic.
* At 7:15 p.m. ET. MIKE MURPHY debuts his 4x2 with Mike Murphy series by hosting DAVID AXELROD.

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**
PAUL RYAN'S BIG RISK
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For most of the prominent Republicans snubbing Donald Trump, there's little risk. President George H.W. Bush, President George W. Bush and 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney aren't on any ballot.

But House Speaker Paul Ryan has something to lose. He needs broad support in the House Republican Conference to keep his job, as conservatives made very clear when they pushed his predecessor, John Boehner (R-Ohio), toward retirement last year. Trump, on the other hand, now has the support of most of the Republican voters across the country — the people who elect the representatives who form Ryan's constituency in the House. That is, Trump is bigger than Ryan right now.

That's one of the reasons it was surprising when Ryan told CNN's Jake Tapper yesterday that he's "not ready" to support the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. And it's one of the reasons why Republican insiders outside his office predicted to Stitch that Ryan's resistance to Trump will be short-lived.

Politico's JAKE SHERMAN gets behind the scenes in Ryan's office to explain that the speaker's positioning was both deliberate and decided on hastily, arrived at on a conference call Wednesday morning. More important, Jake tugs at the underlying tension for Ryan, who has his own conscience, the need to provide cover for Trump-wary colleagues and a future presidential run to think about.
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"Ryan has ruled out launching a white-knight bid for president this year, and giving Trump the stiff arm isn't likely to change that calculus. But the speaker has acknowledged that a bid in 2020 is possible and, intentional or not, this could be part of an effort to pick up the pieces if Republicans lose the White House this fall."

—Jake Sherman/Politico (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/paul-ryan-donald-trump-222870#ixzz47rq8acvy)

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Here's what Ryan said to Tapper about endorsing Trump:
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"I'm just not ready to do that at this point. I'm not there right now. ... Saying we're unified doesn't in and of itself unify us, but actually taking the principles that we all believe in, showing that there's a dedication to those, and running a principled campaign that Republicans can be proud about and that can actually appeal to a majority of Americans -- that, to me, is what it takes to unify this party."

—Paul Ryan/CNN (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/6a141ea21c7252826493e5fa33be671e)

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Trump fired back in a statement that contained both an olive branch and a reminder about the .
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"I am not ready to support Speaker Ryan's agenda. Perhaps in the future we can work together and come to an agreement about what is best for the American people. They have been treated so badly for so long that it is about time for politicians to put them first!""

—Donald Trump/CNN (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/6a141ea21c7252826493e5fa33be671e)

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It didn't take long for Trump's allies to threaten Ryan's job.
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“I’m not ready to support Speaker Ryan anymore. ... I’m thinking we may need a new speaker.”

—Sean Hannity/Fox (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/05/05/sean-hannity-lashes-out-at-paul-ryan-in-string-of-scathing-tweets-you-have-to-be-kidding-me/)

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Republican strategist RON CHRISTIE said on Sidewire last night that Ryan, who has been building a Republican agenda, will continue to be in the public eye in the near future.
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"Trump could be a disaster for the GOP on a presidential level but Ryan has held his caucus together in difficult budget/appropriations fights. Expect the Speaker to speak more on the national stage in days to come."

—Ron Christie/Sidewire (https://sidewire.com/politics/dashboard/articles/6a141ea21c7252826493e5fa33be671e/commentary/5d7bf03d-272f-48ba-9cf8-36baf45315d5)

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If Ryan's successful, he'll get Trump to adopt core party principles that Trump hasn't embraced so far, make it easier for House Republicans to run with Trump and elevate his own standing in advance of the next presidential election without a Republican incumbent.

But if he fails, he'll further divide his party, diminish his own standing and, the longer it goes on, potentially put his job in jeopardy. It's obviously not easy to take on Trump right now.

Republicans who spoke to Stitch lean heavily toward Ryan backing down — and fast.

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**

HOW THE WHITE HOUSE DUPED EVERYONE ON THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
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DAVID SAMUELS of the New York Times magazine gets inside the thinking of Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes, the most influential foreign policy aide to President Barack Obama, in a lengthy profile that has some in the national security establishment upset over revelations of just how Rhodes and his team sold the Iran nuclear deal.

The upshot is that Rhodes created a narrative that elections in Iran brought in a more moderate regime that was open to reaching an agreement on terms more favorable to the U.S., a storyline that made the pact more politically palatable and obscured the most consequential intentions. The truth, Samuels reports, is that most of the terms had been worked out in 2012, before the election and long before there was any public discussion of it. Rhodes and his team used friendly think-tankers and mostly unwitting reporters to sell a false tale to the American public about the origin and meaning of the agreement, he writes.
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"By eliminating the fuss about Iran’s nuclear program, the administration hoped to eliminate a source of structural tension between the two countries, which would create the space for America to disentangle itself from its established system of alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and Turkey. With one bold move, the administration would effectively begin the process of a large-scale disengagement from the Middle East."

—David Samuels/NYT Magazine (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html?_r=1)

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You have to read the whole story (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html?_r=1)  to get a real feel for the level of manipulation — and the specific journalists who were manipulated — in the selling of the Iran deal.
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The conservative writer JOHN PODHORETZ nails why the seemingly glowing profile of Rhodes is a double-edged sword.
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"Little did these denizens of Rhodes’ echo chamber know their loyalty would be seen as servility and would become the subject of post-victory gloating. 'We had test drives to know who was going to be able to carry our message effectively, and how to use outside groups like Ploughshares, the Iran Project and whomever else,' Rhodes says [in the Samuels piece]. 'So we knew the tactics that worked.'"

—John Podhoretz/NY Post (http://nypost.com/2016/05/05/playing-the-press-and-the-public-for-chumps-to-sell-the-iran-deal/)

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In other Middle East news, JOSH ROGIN & ELI LAKE of Bloomberg View write about a shift in U.S. officials' posture toward Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi. They used to attack him publicly for a poor human-rights record, but now, fearing instability in the region, Obama administration officials and leading Republican senators have changed their tune.
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"I think he is somebody we can do business with. I think he’s the right guy at the right time, but his actions will determine if I’m right or wrong. ... We all understand that Sisi is not perfect, but the failure of Egypt would be a catastrophe for the world.”

—Sen. Lindsey Graham/Bloomberg View (http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-06/u-s-doubles-down-on-egypt-s-dictator)

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**

TRIVIAL PURSUITS
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ABOUT TODAY
It's been 12 years since the series finale of "Friends."

YESTERDAY'S TRIVIA
GREG GIROUX was the first to answer correctly that Schuyler Colfax was both speaker of the House and a one-term vice president.

TODAY'S TRIVIA
Courtesy of Greg: When was the last time the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees were from the same state, and who were they?

Send answers to [email-masked]. First person to respond correctly wins unmitigated glory and the right to ask tomorrow's trivia question.

PLEASE SEND TIPS, suggestions, complaints, comments, corrections and notes from the original U.S.-Iran meetings to [email-masked].

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**
VEEPSTAKES!
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Count former TEXAS GOV. RICK PERRY and IOWA SEN. JONI ERNST in on the Donald Trump veepstakes. Not that he's said they're on his short list, but they are among the high-profile Republicans who aren't ruling it out. Neither is NEWT GINGRICH.

And, of course,CHRIS CHRISTIE has been considered a potential running mate since he started appearing at Trump's side after dropping out of the presidential race.

That is, for all the folks who are saying they won't run with Trump, there are a lot who are leaving that option open if not openly auditioning for the job.
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"I am going to be open to any way I can help. I am not going to say no. ... We can't afford the policies and the character of Hillary Clinton."

—Rick Perry/CNN via TPM (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/rick-perry-endorses-trump)

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"I have no idea what his thinking is right now. I don't have any interest in the sense that I'm going to go out and try to become his vice president. I would obviously have to listen carefully if he called. He's an old friend and I think any time a potential president calls a citizen, a citizen owes them an obligation."

—Newt Gingrich/WSB-TV, Atlanta (http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/newt-gingrich-i-would-listen-carefully-if-trump-called-about-vp/263262795)

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Trump said yesterday that it's more likely than not that his selection committee, fronted by former rival Ben Carson, will end up with someone who was not one of his opponents for the GOP nomination. In an interview on CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/05/donald-trump-a-chance-ill-pick-a-vp-from-field-of-former-gop-candidates.html) , he put the odds of a former adversary joining his ticket at 40 percent.

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THE BIG QUESTION

Who would you pick for your running mate if you were Donald Trump and who would you pick if you were Hillary Clinton?

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