Subject: Trump on to something... New Quinnipiac Battleground Poll
From: "Paustenbach, Mark" <[email-masked]>
To: "Miranda, Luis" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 May 2016 07:32:56 -0700

From Florida section:

"Republicans' weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton's historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men," Brown said.

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[Quinnipiac University Polling Logo]

May 10, 2016 - Clinton-Trump Close In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds

PDF format<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps05102016_Sw4b42d.pdf>

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*         FLORIDA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 44 - Trump 42
*         OHIO: Clinton 39 - Trump 43; Sanders 43 - Trump 41
*         PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 47 - Trump 41
In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders' split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:
*         Florida - Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
*         Ohio - Trump edges Clinton 43 - 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump's 41 percent;
*         Pennsylvania - Clinton at 43 percent to Trump's 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 - 41 percent.
"Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida."

"This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump," Brown added. "In Pennsylvania, Clinton's 19-point lead among women matches Trump's 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men."

"Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided.

"By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards."

Florida

A 48 - 35 percent lead among women gives Clinton an overall score of 43 percent. Trump's 49 - 36 percent lead among men gives him 42 percent of all voters.

Independent voters are divided 39 - 39 percent. White voters go Republican 52 - 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63 - 20 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton 49 - 27 percent, while voters over 65 years old back Trump 50 - 37 percent.

Clinton and Trump each get a negative 37 - 57 percent favorability rating.

Florida voters say 54 - 40 percent that Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, and say 49 - 43 percent that he would be better on terrorism.

Voters say 52 - 38 percent that Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and 46 - 41 percent that she has higher moral standards. Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Florida voters say 54 - 44 percent. Trump does not, voters say 62 - 34 percent.

Florida voters support 77 - 20 percent, including 60 - 36 percent among Democrats, requiring voters to show photo ID.

Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 57 percent of voters say, while 11 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 25 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S.

Florida voters split 48 - 48 percent on whether the U.S. should build a wall along the Mexican border. Men support the wall 54 - 44 percent, with women opposed 52 - 43 percent. White voters want a wall 55 - 41 percent, with non-white voters opposed 65 - 31 percent.

"Republicans' weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton's historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men," Brown said.

Ohio

The gender and racial gaps are wide in Ohio, where Trump edges Clinton 43 - 39 percent. He leads 51 - 36 percent among men, while she takes women 43 - 36 percent. White voters go Republican 49 - 32 percent, as non-white voters vote Democratic 76 - 14 percent.

The age gap narrows as voters 18 to 34 years old go 43 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton.

Independent voters go 40 percent for Trump and 37 percent for Clinton.

Clinton gets a negative 34 - 62 percent favorability, compared to Trump's negative 36 - 57 percent.

Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, Ohio voters say 52 - 40 percent. He also would be better on terrorism, voters say 48 - 43 percent.

Ohio voters say 47 - 39 percent Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by a narrow 43 - 39 percent that she has higher moral standards.

Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Ohio voters say 51 - 46 percent, while Trump does not, voters say 63 - 29 percent.

Voters support 75 - 22 percent requiring voters to show photo ID. Democrats are divided with 50 percent in favor of photo ID and 48 percent opposed.

Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 54 percent of voters say, while 9 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 31 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S.

Ohio voters oppose 52 - 45 percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 50 percent want a wall, with 46 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed 79 - 19 percent.

"Ohioans oppose 'The Wall' 52 - 45 percent, while they are overwhelmingly in favor of requiring a photo ID for anyone wanting to vote," Brown said. "They are happy with the economy and satisfied with the way things are going in the state - all of which is a nice testament to Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out of the White House race last week, but might be back as Trump's running mate."

Pennsylvania

It's the same story of gender and racial gaps in Pennsylvania, where Clinton gets 43 percent to Trump's 42 percent. Women back Clinton 51 - 32 percent, while men go to Trump 54 - 33 percent. White voters go Republican 48 - 37 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 74 - 14 percent.

Clinton edges Trump 43 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while Trump has a slim 49 - 42 percent lead among voters over 65 years old.

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings, 37 - 58 percent for her and 39 - 55 percent for him.

Pennsylvania voters say 51 - 42 percent that Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy. They are divided on who best would handle terrorism, as 47 percent say Trump and 46 percent say Clinton.

Clinton is more intelligent than Trump, Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 35 percent and she has higher moral standards, voters say 48 - 39 percent.

Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Pennsylvania voters say 55 - 42 percent, while Trump does not, voters say 62 - 33 percent.

Voters support 64 - 34 percent requiring voters to show photo ID. Support is 94 - 6 percent among Republicans and 63 - 35 percent among independent voters. Democrats are opposed 56 - 40 percent.

Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 58 percent of voters say, while 10 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 27 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S.

Pennsylvania voters oppose 51 - 45 percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 49 percent want a wall with 47 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed 71 - 26 percent.

"Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in Pennsylvania and they have similar, awful numbers on honesty and favorability," said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The one glaring difference: Trump is crushed on the question of which candidate has the temperament and personality to handle an international crisis. It's a vote of confidence the Clinton camp can dine out on and Trump supporters have to see as a red flag."

From April 27 - May 8 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
*         1,051 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
*         1,042 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
*         1,077 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiac poll. Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     FL     OH     PA

Clinton              43%    39%    43%

Trump                42     43     42

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      8      7

DK/NA                 6      6      5

2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     FL     OH     PA

Sanders              44%    43%    47%

Trump                42     41     41

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      8      5

DK/NA                 4      6      5

3. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            37%    34%    37%

Unfavorable          57     62     58

Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      4

REFUSED               3      2      1

4. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            43%    45%    50%

Unfavorable          41     40     36

Hvn't hrd enough     14     12     12

REFUSED               1      2      3

5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     FL     OH     PA

Favorable            37%    36%    39%

Unfavorable          57     57     55

Hvn't hrd enough      3      5      4

REFUSED               3      3      2

11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the economy - Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

                     FL     OH     PA

Clinton              40%    40%    42%

Trump                54     52     51

DK/NA                 6      8      7

12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling terrorism - Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

                     FL     OH     PA

Clinton              43%    43%    46%

Trump                49     48     47

DK/NA                 7      9      7

13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in - (FL) Florida / (OH) Ohio / (PA) Pennsylvania - today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                     FL     OH     PA

Very satisfied        9%    13%     4%

Smwht satisfied      49     54     40

Smwht dissatisfied   26     22     33

Very dissatisfied    15     10     21

DK/NA                 1      1      1

14. Would you describe the state of - (FL) Florida's / (OH) Ohio's / (PA) Pennsylvania's - economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                     FL     OH     PA

Excellent             5%     4%     1%

Good                 52     57     38

Not so good          30     29     44

Poor                 10      9     14

DK/NA                 2      1      2

15. Do you think - (FL) Florida's / (OH) Ohio's / (PA) Pennsylvania's - economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

                     FL     OH     PA

Better               34%    35%    16%

Worse                11     12     26

The same             53     52     56

DK/NA                 2      2      3

16. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

                     FL     OH     PA

Better off           47%    50%    39%

Worse off            28     24     34

SAME(VOL)            24     24     26

DK/NA                 1      1      2

17. Would you say that Hillary Clinton - is honest and trustworthy or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  29%    27%    30%

No                   66     69     67

DK/NA                 4      4      3

18. Would you say that Donald Trump - is honest and trustworthy or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  38%    35%    39%

No                   57     58     55

DK/NA                 5      7      6

19. Would you say that Hillary Clinton - has strong leadership qualities or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  53%    54%    58%

No                   45     44     40

DK/NA                 2      2      2

20. Would you say that Donald Trump - has strong leadership qualities or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  60%    61%    62%

No                   37     36     37

DK/NA                 3      3      1

21. Would you say that Hillary Clinton - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  41%    44%    44%

No                   56     53     52

DK/NA                 2      3      4

22. Would you say that Donald Trump - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  40%    37%    39%

No                   58     58     58

DK/NA                 3      5      3

23. Would you say that Hillary Clinton - has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  54%    51%    55%

No                   44     46     42

DK/NA                 2      3      3

24. Would you say that Donald Trump - has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not?

                     FL     OH     PA

Yes                  34%    29%    33%

No                   62     63     62

DK/NA                 3      7      5

25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has higher moral standards: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

                     FL     OH     PA

Clinton              46%    43%    48%

Trump                41     39     39

DK/NA                12     18     13

26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more intelligent: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

                     FL     OH     PA

Clinton              52%    47%    52%

Trump                38     39     35

DK/NA                10     15     13

29. As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minorities. What do you think: do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote?

                     FL     OH     PA

Support              77%    75%    64%

Oppose               20     22     34

DK/NA                 3      3      2

30. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S.

                     FL     OH     PA

A) Stay/Citizenship  57%    54%    58%

B) Stay/Not citizen  11      9     10

C) Not stay          25     31     27

DK/NA                 7      5      4

31. Would you support or oppose building a wall along the border with Mexico?

                     FL     OH     PA

Support              48%    45%    45%

Oppose               48     52     51

DK/NA                 4      3      4

 Additional info by state:

Florida:

State Crosstabs<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl05102016_crosstabs_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Trend Tables<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl05102016_trends_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Sample and Methodology detail<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl05102016_demos_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Ohio:

State Crosstabs<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/soh05102016_crosstabs_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Trend Tables<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/soh05102016_trends_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Sample and Methodology detail<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/soh05102016_demos_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Pennsylvania:

State Crosstabs<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/spa05102016_crosstabs_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Trend Tables<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/spa05102016_trends_Sw4b42d.pdf>

Sample and Methodology detail<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/spa05102016_demos_Sw4b42d.pdf>