Subject: Release: "Looking Ahead to the Fall Election" - new column from SR
From: "Rosenberg, Simon" <[email-masked]>
To: "Rosenberg, Simon" <[email-masked]>
Cc: Christopher Murphy <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 May 2016 12:19:23 +0000

http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/05/looking-ahead-fall-election
Looking Ahead to the Fall Election
Submitted by Simon Rosenberg<http://www.ndn.org/user/7> on 5/2/16

Last week we took a deep dive<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/04/putting-their-parties-back-together> on what Clinton and Trump have to do to put their parties back together after contentious primaries.  This week I look further forward, and offer an early take on what the landscape might be for this fall's election in an admittedly unpredictable year:

Current Polls (all data from the Huffington Post Pollster<http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster> aggregate) -

Party – Dems lead in Party ID 36/28, and in favorability 46/47 (minus 1) to the GOP’s 31/60 (minus 29), a substantial margin. Congress, which is controlled by the GOP, has a historically low approval rating of 14 (14/72).

The President/Party Leaders – President Obama’s job approval is 49/47, and his overall approval is 48/46. Vice President Biden’s approval is 47/37, and Bernie Sander is 51/40. On the other hand, there are no major GOP political figures with net positive approval ratings – Ryan is 32/39, Kasich is 36/39 and McConnell is 17/43.

Trump vs. Clinton – In the latest Huff Po aggregate, Clinton leads by 7 in direct head to heads with Trump, 47/40. Her approval rating, while low, is far better than Trump’s, 41/55 (minus 14) to 33/62 (minus 29).

The Issue Landscape – There isn’t an obvious opening on domestic issues for the Republicans this cycle. The economy is vastly improved from where it was, and should continue to do well through the fall. Annual deficits are a 1/3 of what they were. Health inflation has slowed, and tens of millions have insurance who didn’t have it before. Energy prices are low, and the US is making real progress is transitioning to a better energy future. On immigration, one of Mr. Trump’s signature issues, the country is with the Democrats, and not him. The basket of issues around “security” remain the GOP’s one obvious opening, with Obama at 39/48 in his handling of foreign policy, and the Secretary having some lingering issues from her time as Secretary of State. Expect a tremendous level of engagement from the GOP on “security” issues this year.

The Map – As we covered in previous posts (here<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/03/trump-and-clinton-look-unstoppable-now-some-thoughts-about-2016-map> and here<http://ndn.org/blog/2016/04/sanders-cruz-soldier-year-opportunity-democrats>), the map is particularly advantageous for Democrats this year. The significant overlap among the states/districts Democrats need to win for the President, Senate and House both allow Democrats to maximize a Presidential state advantage, and use efficiencies gained through coordinated efforts to go on offense in states like Arizona, California, Georgia, New York and North Carolina, Additionally, Trump’s hard line immigration approach will make Democratic success in states with heavily Hispanic populations like Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Virginia and perhaps even North Carolina more likely.

Expanding the map to more states and voters is also important for Democrats to not only ensure that they win, but that they can govern effectively. Due to low turnout and only a small number of targeted Presidential states, only about one in three of eligible voters cast their ballot for President Obama in 2012. By expanding the map, Democrats could get that number up, creating more buy-in from the American people, or the “consent of the governed”<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2014/12/consent-governed-latest-ndns-renewing-our-democracy-series> our founders intended. This extra level of support could make become meaningful in a closely divided Congress next year.

The Choice of Vice President – For Donald Trump there seems to be one really good pick – John Kasich – and lots of less helpful ones. Kasich brings delegates to wrap up the nomination quickly, has as good a favorable rating as any GOPer in the country, has deep governing experience to complement Trump’s inexperience, hails from the region of the country where Trump must win, and is the Governor of the state where the GOP Convention is taking place. Kasich’s standing inside the Party will grow for “taking one for the team” by joining the ticket. I just don’t see how this doesn’t happen.

As for the Democrats, my money is still on Tim Kaine of Virginia. He is a former Party chair, governor and is deeply respected by people on both sides of the aisle. He hails from a swing state, speaks fluent Spanish, is Catholic (Rustbelt, Hispanics) and reinforces the “steady hand on the rudder” sensibility that will likely be a core Democratic offering this year. There are other good choices out there – Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren, etc – but I think Kaine just feels like the right choice for this race at this time.

[http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton/20160502192654227.png]

Looking Ahead – Six months out, signs point to this being a year of significant opportunity for the Democrats. The playing field leans Democratic right now, and the map is particularly advantageous to Democrats this year. The Party’s leaders are well liked, and it has a strong track record of success in each of the last two Presidencies and in winning national elections. Taken together, all of this gives the Democrats a formidable advantage against an unpopular GOP without well regarded leaders and very little to show for their time in power over the past generation.

While the basic structure of the race favors Secretary Clinton, Trump is only 7 points behind at this point. Clinton’s high negatives will give Trump an opportunity to make his case. His even higher negatives and lack of a true campaign at this stage of the race are enormous liabilities for him, ones that will make it very hard for him to turn this into a competitive race in the months ahead. But expect very aggressive attacks around the “security” theme (note 1st major policy speech was on foreign policy), and on her honesty and overall leadership capabilities. Also expect the GOP to come together rapidly around Trump in the months to come, as on may of the major issues – tax cuts, climate denial, Obamacare repeal, hard line immigration policies, interventionist/jingoistic foreign policy – is very much a mainstream Republican.  While Trump appears weak today, he has been over-performing expectations for almost a year now, and cannot be written off.

While perhaps playing defense on “security” issues and her own record, there is a real opportunity for the Secretary to go on offense as the next CEO of a party with well liked leaders and a strong track record of success now in two Presidencies. It would be wise for the Clinton campaign to spend the time through the July Convention leading a national effort to tell the story of Democratic governing success (jobs, deficit, health care, energy/climate, equal opportunity for all, political reform, safer world), establishing the basic contrast of D progress/R decline prior to rolling out her closing argument and shifting the focus to her candidacy at the Convention itself.  Helping the Democrats understand and own their own success will make every Democrat stronger up no matter where they are on the ticket.

It will also be remarkable to see a very popular set of Democratic leaders – Biden, Bill Clinton, both Obamas, Sanders, the VP – standing alongside and campaigning with Secretary Clinton in the months ahead. That image of a powerful team lead by an experienced leader (and first woman!) will not be easily answered by an unpopular, isolated Trump and a deeply unpopular Party without a single national leader with net positive favorability ratings. An unprecedented “Democratic Team” that includes two former Presidents could end up being an extraordinary advantage for her this fall.

To address her weakness with Millennials, Clinton would be wise to do two things: 1) showcase younger, compelling leaders like Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Joe Kennedy at the Convention, giving them outsized and very public roles, and showcasing them thru post-broadcast media and forums; 2) adopt a far reaching plan to renew our democracy and reform our politics, along the lines of something I published<http://www.ndn.org/node/630241> last week. Whatever the Clinton plan is for bringing along the Sanders world, particularly Millennials, it must be an aggressive and serious effort, and should begin right away.

Conclusion – All signs point to it being a year of opportunity for Democrats.  Though Trump should not be underestimated, the hole he and his party have dug for themselves is very deep.  It remains to seen if they can make the fall election competitive.

More on the 2016 Election - Be sure to review our deep dive on the 2016 map<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/03/trump-and-clinton-look-unstoppable-now-some-thoughts-about-2016-map> and the opportunities it offers Democrats; our tally<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/03/report-presidential-primary-debate-audiences> of the Presidential primary debates audiences which finds the GOP far outperforming the Dems; the Democratic bench is stronger<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/01/monday-musings-trump-rising-dems-battle-thoughts-political-reformdem-bench> than it appears; Clinton should become a champion<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/02/after-iowa-different-race-president> of political and electoral reform; thoughts<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2016/02/heading-super-tuesday-trump-and-clinton-remain-driver%E2%80%99s-seat> on the "children of Reagan;" my in-depth interview<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2015/12/simon-talks-matt-lewis-author-too-dumb-fail> with conservative author Matt Lewis on what the GOP can learn from a generation of reform and success on the center-left; my long form magazine piece<http://www.ndn.org/blog/2012/10/forward-or-backward-my-letras-libres-article-choice-america-faces> on the descent of the GOP into a reactionary mess, anticipating the rise of Trump; Rob Shapiro on Trump's economic plan<http://ndn.org/blog/2016/03/donald-trump%E2%80%99s-chutzpah-his-tax-plan-doubles-down-inequality-and-gives-his-own-company-> and the crackup<http://ndn.org/blog/2015/12/will-gop-break-0> of the GOP.

"Monday Musings" is a new column which looks at the national political landscape and is published most Mondays here on the NDN site. You can find previous columns here<http://www.ndn.org/category/topic/monday-musings>. It also appears each week on the London-based progressive site, Left Foot Forward<http://leftfootforward.org/>.

Full disclosure: I am supporting Hillary Clinton for President, and have given the maximum contribution to her campaign. I am not, however, a consultant to, or paid by, any campaign or party committee.

Simon Rosenberg
President, NDN/New Policy Institute
202-842-7217/@SimonWDC/Web Site<http://www.ndn.org/>/My Writing<http://www.ndn.org/blogs/simon-rosenberg>