Subject: Traders Favor a Clinton Win in Trump/Clinton Matchup
From: Brandi Travis <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 May 2016 15:01:20 -0700

In a Trump vs. Clinton Matchup, PredictIt Traders Favor a Clinton Win

Donald Trump has become the presumptive Republican presidential nominee with the withdraw of Ted Cruz last night and John Kasich later this afternoon. In the market for the number of delegates Trump will have, 1,237 shares are trading at 97 cents and the likelihood of a brokered convention are at 2 cents.

In a general election matchup traders are giving the edge to Clinton with shares currently trading at 63 cents while Trump is trading at 38 cents. The spread between Clinton and Trump shares hit a 90-day high of 43 cents on April 5, the day Cruz won the Wisconsin primary — today the spreads is 25 cents.

While Trump is facing a clear path to the nomination, Clinton still faces challenges from within her party. Bernie Sanders won a five-point victory against Clinton in the Indiana Democratic Primary — netting 43 delegates for Sanders and 37 for Clinton. Traders remain confident that Sanders will not end his campaign before the close of May; shares are trading at 16 cents. With 1,164 total delegates remaining, only 145 of them are available in the remaining May contests. Even if Sanders continues his campaign, traders do not anticipate a brokered Democratic National Convention where shares are trading at 7 cents. Of the remaining Democratic contests in May, traders anticipate Sanders to win West Virginia (85 cents) and Oregon (90 cents) with Clinton winning Kentucky (67 cents).

Traders correctly predicted the Trump win in the Indiana Republican primary, but traders did not foresee Cruz suspending his campaign. The market on the likelihood of Cruz dropping out of the race for the nomination before May 31 — opening at 17 cents on Monday — was trading at 35 cents at the time the polls closed in Indiana. The announcement sent Trump shares in the market for the GOP nominee to an all-time high of 97 cents.

Overnight Kasich shares hit a high of five cents and then fell to three by this morning before the announcement came out that he’d be dropping out. Meanwhile in the market on the likelihood of Kasich dropping out by the end of May, shares were trading at 64 this morning.

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Brandi Travis
270-704-2462
[email-masked]

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