Subject: POLITICO's Morning Money: Trump looks to lock it down — Cruz won't commit to backing Trump — The view from Wall Street — Obama invokes Goldman at WHCD
From: Morning Money <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 May 2016 06:03:59 -0600

By Ben White | 05/02/2016 08:00 AM EDT

TRUMP LOOKS TO LOCK IT DOWN - Greetings from sunny Los Angeles where MM is hosting a couple of panels at the Milken Institute Global Conference. The word around these parts among execs and GOP members of Congress on hand is that Donald Trump has the party's nomination locked down and the only remaining question is how the party deals with it. The real end is likely to come Tuesday in Indiana where the NBC/WSJ poll over the weekend showed Trump up on Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 15 points. 

Sure seems like a big Trump win in the Hoosier State is coming that will crush the #NeverTrump forces and put The Donald on a glide path to 1,237 delegates and a first ballot win in Cleveland. Could Cruz pull the miracle in Indiana? Sure. If he does it would reset the CW once again. But the NBC/WSJ poll found that even if Kasich's support went to Cruz, Trump would still lead by 11 points. That's pretty close to a done deal. 

NBC/WSJ poll results: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803bec3a05238a02f4ecb639bd76f31009624bbb4b4f0ec4ab2

TRUMP on Fox News Sunday: "Yes, it's over. It's already over." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908033be461d89f18c9212eb1ce9d246f3be0c6ec6d9d69fe8f72

HEADLINES THAT WON'T HELP Trump beat Hillary Clinton: "Virginia KKK group recruiting for Trump." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908031ca3537e576f54cb8d48ac7d220343006ed2fe3ee04c78b8

SPOTTED IN L.A. at one of the Milken opening night dinners (this one at Fleur de Lys, an enormous Beverly Hills mansion modeled on Versailles): Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former California governor Gray Davis, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Steve Rattner, Jared Bernstein, Senators Mark Warner (D-Va.) and David Purdue (R-Ga.) ... Blair in brief remarks at the dinner: "I'm British so I won't comment on your current politics ... which are strange." 

MM sat next to an elected GOP official from a very red state who summed up the feeling of many Rs in attendance: "I'll never say this publicly but I'll be hoping Hillary wins." 

CRUZ WON'T COMMIT TO BACKING TRUMP - Chuck Todd pressed Cruz on NBC's "Meet the Press" on whether he would support Trump as the nominee. After nine tries, Cruz said: "Let the record show you tried very, very hard to get me to commit to supporting Trump." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803fe2e4d073a51b358a9b522c9cdd729232e060dd8921e1ee5

THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET - Cumberland Advisors Chairman and Chief Investment Officer David Kotok emails: "So. Hillary versus Trump. The battle of two high negatives. Market agents are ignoring the differences and the economic policy. This is both dangerous for investors and opportunistic. As election outcome gains clarity markets may tank or may soar. Examples: Hillary lurches center left to capture Sanders' supporters. Attack on Wall Street intensifies. Markets start to re-price accordingly. Or ... Trump lays out full repatriation plan. Cut tax rate to 5 percent or 10 percent. 

"Use $2 trillion inflows for infrastructure. Finance federal share with a $1trillion inflation indexed 1 percent real interest rate 100 year Treasury bond. Cost to current budget is $10bn a year. Outcome of $1 trillion Federal and $2 trillion repatriation is $3 trillion, five year rebuilding of entire AMERICAN infrastructure. Hillary or Trump use this theme and repeat it every day and the loudest voice captures attention. Markets soar. Just an opinion from an ancient observer." 

OBAMA INVOKES GOLDMAN AT WHCD - Via Mike Allen's Sunday Playbook rundown of President Obama's remarks at his final White House Correspondents Assoc. dinner in DC: "It is an honor to be here at my last - and perhaps THE last - White House Correspondents' Dinner. You all look great. The end of the Republic has never looked better. ... I do apologize - I know I was a little late tonight. I was running on C.P.T. which stands for 'jokes that white people should not make.' ... 

"My eighth and final appearance at this unique event. And I am excited. If this material works well, I'm going to use it at Goldman Sachs next year. ... Earn me some serious Tubmans. ... GOP Chairman Reince Priebus is here as well ... Glad to see you that you feel that you've earned a night off. ... Congratulations on all your success. The Republican Party, the nomination process - it's all going great. Keep it up. ... 

"I am a little hurt that [Trump's] not here tonight. We had so much fun the last time. ... And it IS surprising: You've got a room full of reporters, celebrities, cameras, and he says no? ... Is this dinner too tacky for The Donald? ... What could he possibly be doing instead? Is he at home, eating a Trump Steak ... tweeting out insults to Angela Merkel?" Full video http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803bba60f207f6931eb0cf77e67434cfbedb913a2201ac884b8

GOOD MONDAY MORNING - Other than In-N-Out Burger, got a favorite dining spot in L.A.? Email me on [email-masked] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. 

DRIVING THE WEEK - Indiana votes Tuesday and could bring the GOP race to an end while further expanding Hillary Clinton's lead over Bernie Sanders ... Milken Conference here in L.A. brings together lots of members of Congress. I'll moderate a panel with Sens. David Purdue (R-Ga.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.) among others this morning and another with US Trade Rep Mike Froman this afternoon on TPP ... April jobs report on Friday expected to show a gain of 203,000 down from 215,000 in March 

FULL MILKEN AGENDA - http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908039d27fc6e41ba1fe86a8ca29d61c00d42e5749adbccf4b4c1

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES -Colin Wilhelm on the next steps for the Puerto Rico rescue bill -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m.-- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email-masked]

NEW REGS COMING TO FIN-TECH? - Via Thorn Run Partners' Jason Rosenstock: "The banking industry and those so-called 'FinTech' firms in Silicon Valley and around the country were abuzz last week when the WSJ ran a story about how the CFPB was considering expanding its pending small dollar lending rule to include many of the marketplace and FinTech companies that have been rapidly increasing their market share of the lending industry over the past years. Following on news that three Democratic Senators had written to GAO seeking to update its analysis of the 'FinTech' marketplace and reports of a similar letter by GOP Representative Patrick McHenry and the still pending Treasury RFI, the
 industry is right to think dramatic changes are on the horizon. 

"In the near term, legislators, regulators and perhaps the industry itself needs to reconcile whether they are a monolithic entity or separate phalanges of a larger beast. In the interim, it is clear is that their industry competitors from the world of traditional banking are looking for ways to leverage their long standing relationships to apply political pressure that could result in new pressures on the 'FinTech' industry, even if the facts show that some of these online lenders are filling a crucial void for their customers." 

CRUZ CONFIDENCE CRUMBLES - POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt in Burlingame, Calif.: "[S]everal aides ... expressed growing alarm that Cruz would lose Indiana's primary on Tuesday ... One senior aide said there had been no discussion about dropping out before the final primary contests are held on June 7 but noted that Cruz wouldn't be eager to prolong a campaign he was convinced he couldn't win. ... 'A Cruz loss in Indiana means lights out,' said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. 'Game, set, match.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803de7b999561806dac93ab2c276d0845fecd2d4fb2a7d9efee

INVESTORS CAUTIOUS ON EARNINGS - FT's Nicole Bullock: "US investors remain cautious about the corporate earnings outlook for the full year despite companies beating Wall Street forecasts for the first quarter. With 62 per cent of companies having reported their earnings as of last week, many were able to beat analysts' estimates. However, with expectations for the quarter particularly bleak after the price of crude oil tumbled to a 12-year low in January, investors perceive the companies to have only surpassed a very low bar.

"Some high-profile misses, such as Apple and other tech giants, have also depressed sentiment. Last week, the S&P 500 suffered its worst weekly performance since February's sharp sell-off leaving the index only about 1 per cent in the black. ... A blended rate of reported and estimated earnings for the first three months of 2016 shows a 7.6 per cent decline year on year, according to FactSet. That is better than the 8.7 per cent forecast at the end of the first quarter, but would still amount to four consecutive quarters of year on year declines in earnings - the worst since the financial crisis" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803b79742a5f7011661b41d3d1c6079bce9c64e30e5ab2c14e7

SANDERS PROMISES CONTESTED CONVENTION - POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: "Bernie Sanders predicted Sunday that Hillary Clinton would not win enough pledged delegates to claim the nomination ahead of the Democratic convention in Philadelphia, and he delivered his most forceful call yet for superdelegates in states he's won to consider throwing their support to him.

"Speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., the Vermont senator argued that Clinton 'will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia. In other words, it will be a contested convention.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803bc79d76ebcd86b747c6393a648e969cce3d0a8551683629e

HALIBURTON/BAKER HUGHES CALL OFF DEAL - WSJ's Alison Sider: "Halliburton Co. and Baker Hughes Inc. called off their merger, once valued at nearly $35 billion, which encountered opposition on several continents from regulators who claimed that it would hurt competition in the oil-field services business. The deal to combine the world's second- and third-largest oil-field services firms after Schlumberger Ltd. appeared troubled since April 6, when the Justice Department filed a lawsuit to block it. The merger also had encountered opposition from regulators in Europe.

"The companies had anticipated regulatory challenges when they originally struck their agreement in 2014, but repeatedly stressed that they felt the obstacles could be overcome ... The two sides previously set April 30 as the day when the agreement would expire, allowing either to walk away from the deal. Halliburton said Sunday evening that it would pay a $3.5 billion breakup fee to Baker Hughes" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803abf2cf0a1ec317b1a97d67bb79e72e95cfafa11e73f91996

WHO WILL RUN WITH TRUMP? - NYT's Patrick Healy and Ashley Parker: "'Never,' said Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for Gov. John Kasich of Ohio ... 'No chance.' 'Hahahahahahahahaha,' wrote Sally Bradshaw, a senior adviser to Jeb Bush, when asked if he would consider it. 'Scott Walker has a visceral negative reaction to Trump's character,' said Ed Goeas, a longtime adviser ... Or, as Senator Lindsey Graham put it, 'That's like buying a ticket on the Titanic.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908038c3053322f383274d39bb27b6eda6466f40f1bd38fbada92

SANDERS FUNDRAISING DECLINES - POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: "Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign raised $25.8 million in April, a notable decline from a month earlier when he raised $44 million. The Sanders campaign reported the latest fundraising haul on Sunday, noting that it surpassed 'the campaign's average monthly total of $17 million.' 

"Still, what was far more conspicuous was the decline in the most recent fundraising numbers from a month earlier. The newest fundraising numbers come just a few days after, as first reported by POLITICO, the Sanders campaign made staff cuts across his campaign apparatus." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908030809a365a3ee2f84a3e0168a19d3341b14fbe64285fc85f2

YAHOO'S MAYER COULD GET HUGE PAYDAY - AP/San Francisco: "Yahoo's chief executive, Marissa Mayer, will walk away with a $55 million severance package if the company's auction of its Internet operations culminates in a sale that ousts her from her job. The payout, which was disclosed in a regulatory filing on Friday with the [SEC], would consist of cash, stock awards and other benefits if she is forced out within a year after a sale.

"Although Yahoo's board is still evaluating takeover offers, many investors are betting that the company will decide to sell its well-known brand and Internet businesses, including an email service and news sections focused on sports and finance. Ms. Mayer, a former Google executive, has been largely unsuccessful in her efforts to turn around Yahoo's fortunes. The company's long-running slump has deepened during her reign, making her compensation - and whether she remains after a possible sale - a topic of great interest" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908039054e2c74509b09b2ae5567df27eecca88706cae242a9178

BUFFETT TAKES ON SODA SCOLDS - FT's Stephen Foley in Omaha: "Warren Buffett set himself on a potential collision course with public health campaigners when he said it was 'quite spurious' to lay the blame for obesity and diabetes at the door of fizzy drinks companies, such as his part-owned Coca-Cola. The 85-year-old investor - and renowned Cherry Coke drinker - insisted consumption levels were a matter of personal choice as he took the stage at the annual meeting of his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway. 

"Sweet defences aside, Mr Buffett was at pains to avoid political controversy, although his caution did little to dispel enthusiasm among the almost 40,000 shareholders who made the trek to Omaha, Nebraska, a few thousand short of last year. One attendee cited a Tufts University study last year that linked fizzy drinks to 184,000 deaths annually worldwide, and accused Mr Buffett of dodging the issue at previous meetings with jokes about his own legendary consumption of Cherry Coke doing him no harm" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec0683908034958eb056a60ee64722dc0ab9c86eea973be0b6d14093764

TECH IN NYC - NYT's Steve Lohr on the launch of "Tech: NYC" a new effort to catch the next big startups in the Big Apple. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=84469ec068390803d49e3c2b44949e59a520527dda51e9e41016c7bc3f67eda8

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