Subject: Wall St. Journal - Donald Trump Holds 15-Point Lead Ahead of Republican Rivals in Indiana Poll
From: "Paustenbach, Mark" <[email-masked]>
To: Debbie Wasserman Schultz <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Miranda, Luis" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 May 2016 16:48:15 -0700

Donald Trump Holds 15-Point Lead Ahead of Republican Rivals in Indiana Poll<http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-holds-15-point-lead-ahead-of-republican-rivals-in-indiana-poll-1462107603?cb=logged0.7726702412648494>
The GOP front-runner could cement his position in a state that Cruz has long sought
By Janet Hook
Updated May 1, 2016
7:25 p.m. ET

The home stretch of the long 2016 GOP presidential race is coming into view, and the path to victory is opening wider for front-runner Donald Trump amid signs that he could pick up a big win in Tuesday's Indiana primary.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll finds Mr. Trump ahead by 15 points among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana, pointing to a victory that would significantly boost the businessman's chances of clinching the Republican presidential nomination before the party's convention in Cleveland.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, his chief rival, continued to voice confidence that he could keep Mr. Trump from getting the 1,237 delegates needed to claim the nomination either before the convention or on the first ballot. But Mr. Cruz needs Indiana's primary to be a pivot point<http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-makes-his-last-stand-in-indiana-1461971615>.

"The country is really depending on Indiana to choose the direction of this race," Mr. Cruz said on NBC, in one of five television appearances broadcast Sunday morning.

Mr. Trump said a victory in Indiana would effectively end the contest. "If we win Indiana, it's over, OK?" he said at a rally in the state on Sunday.

If Mr. Trump won all 57 of Indiana's delegates, he would have 1,012 bound delegates, leaving him 225 short of the magic number. He would then need 49.45% of the bound delegates remaining to be allocated-the first time that figure would drop below 50% for any candidate in the race.

The Journal/NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday bolstered the hopes of Trump supporters, showing that 49% of likely Republican primary voters favored Mr. Trump, compared with 34% for Mr. Cruz and 13% for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

The poll also surveyed likely Democratic voters in Indiana and found Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead, 50% to 46%, over Sen. Bernie Sanders. With Mr. Sanders trailing significantly in the delegate count, the poll result suggests that the outcome in Indiana isn't likely to change the dynamic of a nomination fight.

Mr. Trump has been on a winning streak since his landslide victories in the New York primary<http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-look-set-to-deliver-new-york-wins-1461108226> two weeks ago and in last week's five-state round of voting in the Northeast<http://www.wsj.com/articles/northeast-primaries-set-up-republican-candidates-for-home-stretch-1461709702>, which some dubbed the "Acela primary" after the Boston-Washington Amtrak train service.

"After the Acela primary, there is an aura of inevitability surrounding the Trump and Clinton candidacies," said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Mr. Cruz's supporters have been hopeful about Indiana because it is a deeply conservative state with an influential community of evangelical Christians, the kind of voters who are part of the Texas senator's base. Mr. Cruz won the endorsement Friday of the state's governor, Mike Pence<http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/04/29/indiana-gov-mike-pence-to-endorse-ted-cruz-for-president/>. But Mr. Pence also praised Mr. Trump and hasn't joined the "stop-Trump" chorus.

John Hammond, a Republican National Committee member from Indiana who is neutral in the race, said Mr. Cruz's organization in the state is superior to that of his rivals, but that it may be no match for Mr. Trump's unconventional appeal in this unpredictable political year. "This appears to me to be a state that Trump is going to win," said Mr. Hammond. "If Cruz does not pick up a significant number of delegates and win statewide, it makes it very difficult to see any way to stop Trump."

A candidate could sweep all 57 delegates in Indiana by winning the vote statewide and in all nine congressional districts. Even if Mr. Trump were to do that, he still would need to wait until June 7, the last day of the primary season, to secure the needed 1,237 delegates. Five states vote then, including California, with its trove of 172 delegates.

That is where Mr. Cruz's sights are turned, win or lose in Indiana. He spoke to California's GOP convention Saturday and picked up the endorsement of former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson<http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/04/30/former-california-gov-pete-wilson-endorses-ted-cruz/>.

The Cruz campaign has also continued to work at state conventions to ensure his supporters fill delegate slots, even if they are bound to vote for Mr. Trump on the first convention ballot.

His team scored another such victory in Arizona. Mr. Trump had won the state's primary, but a state GOP convention on Saturday placed Cruz supporters in most of the state's 58 delegate slots. Among the Trump backers who lost out was former Gov. Jan Brewer.

There was no such Cruz takeover at Delaware's state GOP convention Saturday, which approved a slate of 16 delegates. Most who spoke seemed prepared to back Mr. Trump beyond the first ballot, because he had won more than 60% of the vote in the state's primary<http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/04/26/donald-trump-wins-delaware-gop-primary/>, according to John Fluharty, manager of the GOP state convention.

"The delegates heard the primary voters loud and clear," Mr. Fluharty said.

Mark Paustenbach
National Press Secretary &
Deputy Communications Director
Democratic National Committee
W: 202.863.8148
[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>