Subject: Trump is running away with Cruz's do-or-die state
From: CNN Politics Nightcap <[email-masked]>
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Date: Sun, 1 May 2016 22:20:55 +0000
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CNN Politics: Nightcap
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May 1, 2016
by Eric Bradner
Welcome to the CNN Politics Nightcap and good Sunday evening from Indianapolis. Ted Cruz got bad polling news ahead of this state's key Tuesday primary. President Barack Obama roasted Donald Trump and others in his final White House Correspondents' Dinner. And the White House announced where Obama's older daughter will attend college. Your bartender is Eric Bradner (http://www.cnn.com/profiles/eric-bradner?cid=nl_pol_071915_profile?sr=nl_pol_072215_bradner) . The tip jar: [email-masked] (mailto:[email-masked]) .

** Indiana: Trump is running away in Cruz's do-or-die state
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If Ted Cruz's ability to stop Donald Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates it takes to clinch the Republican nomination hinges on Indiana, the latest poll is especially bad news for the Texas senator's campaign. Trump has 49% support to Cruz's 34% and John Kasich's 13% in the Hoosier State, per an NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey. If the poll is right, tweeted (https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/726771836009238528) conservative anti-Trump pundit Erick Erickson, "not only is the primary process over, the GOP is too." South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, meanwhile, said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that he's advising (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-donald-trump-presidency-will-lead-to-another-911/?linkId=24044287) Cruz to stay in the race even if he loses Indiana -- saying the party is in the midst of a "civil war."

Trump was asked on "Fox News Sunday" if he'd knock Cruz out by winning Indiana. His answer: "Yes, it's over." (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/trump-cruz-indiana/index.html)

One big difference: Conservative talk radio -- a powerful, unified force against Trump in Wisconsin -- isn't rallying to Cruz's side in Indiana. "The audience is pretty damn smart, and they're not coming to me to tell them what to do," Tony Katz, a conservative talker who hosts WIBC's morning show and has interviewed Cruz several times in recent days, told me for this story (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/30/politics/ted-cruz-indiana-talk-radio/index.html) .

There's a hot Senate race in Indiana, too, and Rep. Todd Young -- the choice of Mitch McConnell and the Chamber of Commerce (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/07/politics/indiana-senate-mcconnell-stutzman-young-cruz/) -- is well ahead of a conservative favorite, Rep. Marlin Stutzman, 56% to 24% (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/07/politics/indiana-senate-mcconnell-stutzman-young-cruz/) , the poll shows.

Cruz is shifting his emphasis to California, and looking for a rationale to remain in the race even if he loses Indiana. On Saturday, he spent a day away from Indiana -- taking his announced runningmate Carly Fiorina with him to California for the GOP convention there and declaring, "California is going to decide this Republican primary." More from The New York Times' Jonathan Martin (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/01/needing-to-win-ted-cruz-trails-donald-trump-in-indiana-by-15-points-poll-finds/) .
Straight Up

** "Let the record show you tried very, very hard to get me to commit."
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**
-- Ted Cruz to NBC's Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press," after Todd asked Cruz nine times whether he'd support Donald Trump were Trump to win the GOP nomination.
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Buzzing

President Barack Obama wrapped up his final White House Correspondents' Dinner speech with a Mamba-esque (http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/4/14/11428378/kobe-bryant-retirement-video-final-game-highlights) "Obama out" and a mic drop.

Last Call

** About last night: Here are Obama's best WHCD jokes
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CNN's Eugene Scott rounds up (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/30/politics/white-house-correspondents-dinner-obama-best-lines/index.html) President Barack Obama's best jokes in his last White House Correspondents' Dinner. Some of our favorites:

On paid speeches and new $20 bills: "If this material works well, I'm gonna use it at Goldman Sachs next year. Earn me some serious Tubmans."

Hillary Clinton's favorite line: "Next year at this time, someone else will be standing here in this very spot. And it's anyone's guess who she will be."

Cribbing Bernie Sanders' favorite refrain: "We've got the bright new face of the Democratic Party here tonight, Mr. Bernie Sanders! Bernie, you look like a million bucks. Or to put it in terms you'll understand, you look like 37,000 donations of $27 each."

Poking Donald Trump: "There's one area where Donald's experience could be invaluable, and that's closing Guantanamo. Because Trump knows a thing or two about running waterfront properties into the ground."

** Trump camp accuses Arizona GOP of stealing delegate election
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From CNN's Gregory Krieg in Mesa (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/arizona-republican-delegates-convention-trump-cruz-brewer/index.html) : Donald Trump's Arizona campaign chair on Saturday night accused Republican Party officials here of fixing the vote to favor Ted Cruz and his allies after Trump won only an estimated dozen of the state's 58 national delegates. Jeff DeWit, the state treasurer, pointed to alleged flaws in the web-based application used by the Arizona GOP to handle the at-large delegate vote, accusing top officials of purposefully squeezing out would-be Trump delegates. "Trump got cheated," DeWit yelled as supporters around him raged at the results. "Somebody messed with the system."

It was a weird scene: Voting delegates at the gathering in Mesa were instructed by organizers to log on to NeverHillary.SimplyVoting.com, where they were presented with a selection of slates, including one strictly for Trump backers, a "unity" ticket featuring his supporters and top state officials, and two more for Cruz and John Kasich, whose campaigns cooperated and presented nearly identical names. "The people of Arizona got cheated, I got cheated, and the Trump delegates got cheated," former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, whose name was not listed on the Trump slate as it appeared to delegates and failed to win election to the national convention, told reporters.

** White House: Malia Obama will head to Harvard after gap year
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Malia Obama, the older of President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama's two daughters, will attend Harvard University. She'll begin there in the fall of 2017, after taking a gap year, the White House announced Sunday. She'll be a member of the class of 2021. My story (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/malia-obama-college-decision-harvard-gap-year/index.html) .

Speaking of Harvard ... an interesting letter to the editor from a current student who supports Hillary Clinton ran in The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/30/opinion/an-outlier-at-harvard-im-a-hillary-supporter.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0) . Sam Koppelman, The Harvard Crimson's op-ed editor, writes: "At Harvard, admitting that #ImWithHer is nearly tantamount to boasting 'Make America Great Again.'"

** In Mexico, an interested (and nervous) audience for 2016's race
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From John King's Inside Politics forecast (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/election-center-2016/trump-delegate-strategy/index.html) : Our neighbors to the south are paying extraordinarily close attention to the 2016 presidential election -- and their worries extend beyond Donald Trump and his tough tone on illegal immigration. On a visit to Mexico City this past Thursday, I had the opportunity to talk to a mix of young professionals, business leaders and several veteran diplomats and Mexican government officials. To a person, all were horrified at a Trump tone on immigration they find inaccurate and disrespectful. And every conversation included a question about whether a Trump presidency was within the realm of possibility.

But the interest -- and concern -- didn't end there. Trade between the United States and Mexico has more than tripled since the implementation of the NAFTA accord early in the Bill Clinton presidency. In virtually every conversation, questions about the future of NAFTA and other trade proposals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership came up. The concern wasn't just about Trump's labeling of NAFTA as a "disaster." It is hardly lost on our neighbors that Hillary Clinton also has moved significantly left -- and is now skeptical -- when it comes to trade deals. There was deep concern about the future of a business relationship that those with whom I spoke believe has been good for both the United States and Mexican economies and that, in their view, is a primary reason illegal migration by Mexicans to the United States has dropped significantly.
Closing Time

Bernie Sanders' $26 million (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/bernie-sanders-26-million-fundraising-april/index.html) April fundraising haul is a dip from his torrid pace of February and March. ... Ted Cruz is standing his ground in his belief that allowing transgender people to use the bathroom (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/ted-cruz-carly-fiorina-john-boehner/index.html) of their choice "opens the door for predators," dismissing criticism from Caitlyn Jenner. ... Indiana Gov. Mike Pence endorsed Cruz, but Donald Trump says Pence's heart (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-cruz-pence-indiana-222681) wasn't in it.
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