Subject: POLITICO's Morning Money, presented by Allied Progress: Welcome to primary day — Fed meeting prep — Lew warns on Puerto Rico — Regulators to bless Charter/TWC deal
From: Morning Money <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 06:06:55 -0600

By Ben White | 04/26/2016 08:04 AM EDT

WELCOME TO PRIMARY DAY - Voters head to the polls in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are poised for big wins. Bernie Sanders may not drop out by the end of the day but he's gonna be close, even if he wins Rhode Island. All that's left now is negotiating terms of his surrender. And Clinton does not sound like someone inclined to give much ground to Sanders beyond perhaps a prominent spot at the Democratic Convention (more on which below) and some kind words. 

On the Republican side, the big question will be what happens in Pennsylvania where 54 of 71 delegates will be unbound at the GOP convention. Pennsylvania awards just 17 bound delegates to the statewide winner. Both Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz have released the names of delegates in each of the state's 18 congressional districts they say will support them in Cleveland. But it will be up to voters to arm themselves with that information before going into the voting booth. 

Even if Trump rolls on Tuesday night a big part of the story will still be the Cruz-John Kasich pact to divvy up Indiana (Cruz) and New Mexico and Oregon (Kasich). The one that matters is Indiana. If Cruz can win there on May 3rd, Trump's path to 1,237 delegates gets quite difficult. But to do that Cruz probably needs Kasich to specifically direct his supporters in the state to vote for Cruz, something Kasich so far seems unwilling to do, which could render the deal essentially moot. The other key on Tuesday is Trump's margins. If he wins big across the board, his delegate math will get easier. 

HILLARY: MY OFFER IS THIS ... NOTHING - Monday night on MSNBC, Hillary Clinton did not seem inclined to offer up any policy concessions to ensure that she gets a hearty endorsement from Bernie Sanders. And she reiterated the line that she thinks her Wall Street stance is already tougher than Sanders' indicating that no big moves are coming when it comes to bank regulation policy. 

Rachel Maddow: "He seems to be saying now that even if you beat him in the primary it's not necessarily a given that he will implore all of his supporters to go out and work for you. He says that he thinks that they'll support you if basically you adopt some of his platform on the issues that are most important to him. He's specifically talked about Wall Street and some other things in his platform. Does that make sense to you? ... 

Clinton: "I've got 10.4 million votes. I have 2.7 million more folks, real people, showing up to cast their vote, to express their opinion, than Senator Sanders. I have a bigger lead in pledged delegates than Senator Obama when I ran against him in 2008 ever had over me. I am winning. And I'm winning because of what I stand for and what I've done ... 

"Look, I think we have much more in common and I want to unify the Party, but my Wall Street plan is much more specific than his. We saw that when he couldn't even answer questions in the New York Daily News interview. I have laid out a very clear set of objectives about not just reining in the banks - because we already have Dodd-Frank ... But I've gone further." ... 

Clinton on concessions: "Then-Senator Obama and I ran a really hard race; it was so much closer than the race right now between me and Senator Sanders ... We got to the end in June, and I did not put down conditions. I didn't say, 'You know what, if Senator Obama does X, Y and Z, maybe I'll support him. I said, 'I am supporting Senator Obama because no matter what our differences might be, they pale in comparison to the differences between us and the Republicans.' That's what I did."" 

MM TRANSLATION - "Bernie, I'm crushing you. You've been rude and nasty to me and hung around for no very good reason wagging your finger in my face. If you think I'm gonna kowtow and promise to bust up the big banks on day one in office just to please your goons ... think again bud. It's not happening. Now go get your shine box."

HOT CLICK: FIX THE BUDGET YOURSELF! - The Hutchins Center at Brookings and Woodrow Wilson Center this a.m. are launching a "Fiscal Ship" computer game on the budget. David Wessel: "We're trying to appeal to people who know the debt is important, but never manage to get to the end of any newspaper story on the subject and are baffled by the dueling assertions about taxes, spending and deficits on the 2016 campaign trail" Video trailer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c52af29ba5360bc737a106887ea0580140377031ca5e0561c Game: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815cfb063701bde73fc08415fb06170db6d13d9ec55bcccdf748

FED MEETING PREP - Mohamed A. El-Erian on Bloomberg View: "Fed officials are likely to set the stage for a possible interest rate hike when they next meet in June. They mainly will be motivated by three factors: a further strengthening in labor market conditions that also improves the outlook for wage growth; the recent significant easing in financial conditions, including easier access to borrowing for corporates and mortgage financing; and, more generally, the central bank's eagerness to continue the process of careful monetary-policy normalization after so many years of experimentation."

BOND MARKET: NO HIKE TILL FEBRUARY - Bloomberg: "For bond traders, there's little doubt about the path the Federal Reserve will take on interest rates. They aren't fully pricing in another increase until February, while driving a gauge of expected volatility in Treasuries to the lowest since 2014 this month. That's the sort of hubris that can get them burned, according to Jerome Schneider, a money manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. and Morningstar Inc.'s 2015 fixed-income fund manager of the year.

"'Investors shouldn't be lulled into complacency that the Fed isn't going to be in play,' Schneider said Monday at Pimco's office in New York. 'The Fed will continue to be data-dependent and really use gradualism in every approach,' he said, 'but simply assuming you are going to be in the 25 to 50 basis point range for the next few years seems to be a little bit conservative.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c552445978d1afa190032e436b06ef23b8a980dadda6130af

THE MAN WHO BEAT TRUMP - Meet Marvin Roffman, the securities analyst who took on Donald Trump and won, via POLITICO's Michael Kruse: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c5787338a986cab68a4cf4496e516c15acace5d361d1b72dc

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING - Email me on [email-masked] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. 

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES - Patrick Temple-West on life insurers' discussions about a suit to stop the fiduciary rule - and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. - please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email-masked]

GET READY FOR PROM! - White House Correspondents' Association Weekend Event - Playbook Lunch with Billy Eichner and Mike Farah. Join POLITICO's Chief White House Correspondent Mike Allen as he takes Playbook live for a conversation with Host of "Billy on the Street" and from Hulu's "Difficult People", Billy Eichner and President of Production of Funny or Die, Mike Farah. Friday, April 29 - Doors at 11:30 a.m - The Newseum. RSVP: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815cd29b8045e05bf202cd988be57e9a6530503b4bfc6e01609e

LEW WARNS ON PUERTO RICO - POLITICO's Clea Benson: "Puerto Ricans will experience 'chaos' if Congress fails to pass a bill helping the island territory contend with its $73 billion debt, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said this week in an interview taped for Univision. Negotiations over a measure being drafted by House Republicans appear to be on the verge of imploding. Groups that oppose the bill because it would allow restructuring of the debt have been airing ads calling it a 'bailout,' spooking some conservatives.

"Treasury also has problems with the bill as written. 'It's not yet in a form that works,' Lew told Univision's Enrique Acevedo ... Lew faulted bondholders who are lobbying against the deal because they could lose money. 'I think that there are Republicans and Democrats working together," he said. "I think that there are pressures that are trying to pull that apart. ... The interest of the sub group that are against it can't be allowed to become the dominant consideration.'"

LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA IMPLORES CONGRESS - HBO's Jon Oliver did a long segment on Puerto Rico including a new song from "Hamilton" creator and star Lin-Manuel Miranda calling for Congress to act to aid the indebted island. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c02c8e1e95ed54324969a9125abcb5ae8ce596f4513e16b5a

REGULATORS TO BLESS CHARTER/TWC DEAL - WSJ's Shalini Ramachandran and John D. McKinnon: "Federal regulators are poised to approve Charter Communications Inc.'s $55 billion acquisition of Time Warner Cable Inc., but they will force the merged company to live up to stringent obligations that don't apply to its bigger rivals. Under a deal with the [DoJ and the FCC], Charter agreed to abandon for seven years several common industry practices that the government feared could threaten the growth of rival online video providers such as Netflix Inc. and Hulu. 

"The company agreed not to impose data caps or charge broadband Internet customers based on data usage, practices that have riled customers. Charter will also be required to build out its broadband access to two million homes, which would compel it to compete against other cable companies in some markets ... That would be a significant move for an industry that has divvied itself up geographically." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c816f4f69737a170fba46991b098d498aaaae727d878344b4

** A message from Allied Progress: #DebtTrapDebbie Wasserman Schultz isn't the only Member of Congress trying to sabotage President Obama's hard work to rein in predatory payday lenders through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Vote now and help Allied Progress decide who to expose next. CAST YOUR VOTE TODAY: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815cabf11b01a5a0dfe7d312c608bb6c175dae18fb75f3ea8f52 **

HOW TRADE DRIVES 2016 - NYT's Nelson D. Schwartz and Quoctrung Bui: "[R]esearch to be unveiled this week by four leading academic economists suggests that the damage to manufacturing jobs from a sharp acceleration in globalization since the turn of the century has contributed heavily to the nation's bitter political divide. ... Cross-referencing congressional voting records and district-by-district patterns of job losses and other economic trends between 2002 and 2010, the researchers found that areas hardest hit by trade shocks were much more likely to move to the far right or the far left politically.

"'It's not about incumbents changing their positions,' said David Autor, an influential scholar of labor economics and trade at [MIT] and one of the paper's authors. 'It's about the replacement of moderates with more ideological successors.' ... The new paper underscores a broader rethinking among economists of the costs and benefits of policies aimed at encouraging industrial competition across borders." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815cf5c14ffa234697b9f2a49e60f15930ca7ddcd48538e6fd44

CRUZ VETS CARLY - POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Ted Cruz has begun vetting Carly Fiorina as a potential pick for vice president, according to a source familiar with the discussions. Fiorina endorsed Cruz after she dropped out of the Republican nomination fight in February and has since become one of his most loyal and outspoken surrogates. ... . 

"Cruz and John Kasich have both said they have begun their vice presidential search, though both trail Donald Trump in the delegate chase. Cruz aides didn't respond to requests for comment. But on Twitter, Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said the search had begun to narrow." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815cb3efece8ef8a3e40d7a52b4d84f368b31f5f68118f043e2f

SAUDI UNVEILS TRANSFORMATION PLAN - FT Simeon Kerr in Riyadh and Anjli Raval in London: "Saudi Arabia has unveiled a long-awaited plan for a radical transformation of its economy, pledging to end its 'addiction to oil' and bolster its private sector in a shift that will see the planned $2tn listing of the state-owned Saudi Aramco. Spurred by the collapse in oil prices, the kingdom has set out ambitious targets for economic and social reform under a 'Vision 2030' plan that is the brainchild of Mohammed bin Salman, the 30-year-old deputy crown prince and the favoured son of King Salman bin Abdulaziz.

"The kingdom could end its reliance on oil within four years, the prince said in a television interview ... Saudi Arabia currently derives more than 90 per cent of its budget revenues from hydrocarbons. ... The planned flotation of a 5 per cent stake in Aramco would value the oil giant at more than $2tn and mark a historic transformation of the kingdom's primary economic engine, boosting transparency around the state-owned company's finances, as well as granting Saudi Aramco more independence from government oil policy." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c21efd24d0e7a2859dd87424275673a75019f95c93c03be6b

ASIA FALLS AHEAD OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS - Reuters: "Asian stocks retreated on Tuesday as investors braced for central bank policy meetings in the United States and Japan this week. ... Investors are cautious about buying riskier assets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting starting later on Tuesday. A surprise drop in new U.S. home sales data for March published on Monday supported a view of anemic U.S. economic growth, which may keep the Fed from raising interest rates.

"In fact, markets sees no chance of a rate increase at this week's meeting and are pricing in just about a one in five chance of a move at the next meeting on June 14-15. Yet, Fed officials have repeatedly said a hike in June is on the cards. ... Oil prices recovered on Tuesday, pushed up by a weaker dollar and a flood of new cash into the market, but analysts warned of further weakness as producers continue to battle for customers in the Middle East." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c478c8dc8c2c8c31fdec8c07df14601bd822fe69692e83eae

** A message from Allied Progress: #DebtTrapDebbie Wasserman Schultz isn't the only Member of Congress trying to sabotage President Obama's hard work to rein in predatory payday lenders through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Vote now and help Allied Progress decide who to expose next. Who will it be? Rep. Corrine Brown - Rep. Kathy Castor - Rep. Lois Frankel - Rep. Alcee Hastings - Rep. Patrick Murphy - Rep. Bill Posey - Rep. Dennis Ross? CAST YOUR VOTE TODAY: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815cabf11b01a5a0dfe7d312c608bb6c175dae18fb75f3ea8f52 **

To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c8987e7ed1f01d4c7c2bac9152d0e66614aa458ef343b6268
 To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24c7eb76037e815c21c36c0184112e0ab4892dfebd3d2c9849aeb1edbc85db8a or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=57cf03c73f21c5ef65b9c058ca0f6cfa66691761e73177ec599db7384a6a859aa39802893f5e81140de25c12dec8344d8621eb53bb70e8a0This email was sent to [email-masked] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

To unsubscribe,http://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000154-5274-de41-adfd-5776aef80000&u=0000014e-f112-dd93-ad7f-f917a8270002&s=dad3c4223ceb799751c7d89baf30b3359bc38ed5ae49f10cbd70c3c3536480dd180c5153add06f99739092f9f572c573514385360953b79047f0259ebadd690d