Subject: POLITICO'S Morning Score
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Date: Fri, 21 May 2010 06:22:36 -0400

POLITICO POLITICO's Morning Score, May 21, 2010 6:22 am
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Sessions takes 'full responsibility' for PA-12 - NRCC, NRSC outraise Dems - Hawaii expected to pick Djou - Gibbs: Paul comments show 'narrowness' - Plouffe headlining young donors event By: Alexander Burns
Fri 21, 2010 06:20 AM EST

POLITICO EXCLUSIVE -- KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON: NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions told House Republicans this week he takes 'full responsibility' for the party's loss in the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District and pollster Gene Ulm prepared a memo for the congressional GOP explaining the loss, POLITICO's Shira Toeplitz and Charlie Mahtesian report. 'In a memo obtained by POLITICO that is scheduled to be circulated to House Republicans on Friday, Ulm wrote that the special election outcome was largely the result of a late-breaking surge of Democratic voters toward Rep. Joe Sestak in the high-profile Senate primary, a force that unexpectedly boosted turnout in southwestern Pennsylvania. 'The bottom line is that the special election coincided with very competitive Democratic primaries that inflated the number of base Democrats anxious to defeat Arlen Specter,' wrote Ulm, a top GOP pollster.' 

MORE: ''Our LAST survey completed Sunday prior to election day showed that the Democratic Senate primary bolstered the numbers of core, ideologically much more liberal Democrats by a minimum of six percent - at the expense of the more conservative Democrats that make up this district's largest portion of swing voters,' Ulm noted. He also argued in the memo that Republicans' messaging was effective, according to post-election interviews with Democrats who voted for Burns.' Minority Leader John Boehner and Whip Eric Cantor have expressed continued confidence in Sessions's leadership of the NRCC.  

As Connecticut convenes, Tim Bridgewater makes nice and Charles Djou meets his moment, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

ALL ABOUT APRIL: The Senate and House GOP campaign committees outraised their Democratic counterparts by well over a million dollars each last month, according to newly released figures. The NRSC brought in $4.4 million to the DSCC's $3.1 million and almost erased the DSCC's cash on hand advantage -- now holding $17 million on hand to the DSCC's $17.1 million. On the House side, the NRCC brought in $7.1 million to the DCCC's $5.14 million, but the Democrats still lead in cash on hand by a gap of $27.3 million to $11.4 million. 

THE QUESTION MARK: The DNC raised $10.3 million in April and ended the month with $15.1 million on hand, bringing the Democrats' cash strength across their three federal committees to just under $60 million. The RNC, which has a very tough news month in April, hasn't yet released its numbers and they're not up on the FEC website. 

PLUS -- KA-CHING: A report filed with the IRS also gives the first glimpse into the pro-Republican 527 group American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-Ed Gillespie project that received its first major contribution in the form of a million-dollar check from Texas natural gas baron Trevor Rees Jones. POLITICO's Ken Vogel has more: 'The contribution, from Trevor Rees-Jones, president of Chief Oil and Gas, a privately held energy company in Dallas, was the only significant contribution made in April to the new group ... And though American Crossroads says it has already received commitments for $30 million in donations from mostly big donors, it has only raised $1.25 million since it officially launched in March to big expectations and fanfare. The other major contribution was $250,000 from B. Wayne Hughes of Lexington, Ky., the chairman of Public Storage ... Some GOP operatives have questioned American Crossroads' ability to meet its ambitious fundraising and spending goals. But its president, Steven Law, told POLITICO in an e-mail that 'we're pleased with the financial support we continue to receive and are on track for a $50 million budget to help elect Republicans this fall.''  

TOMORROW -- ZERO HOUR: It's the moment of truth in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, where Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou is expected to take over the vacant House seat formerly occupied by Democrat Neil Abercrombie. The die is basically cast there: by Wednesday of this week, 48 percent of ballots in the election had already been returned in the three-way race between Djou and Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa. MONDAY'S SPIN: If Djou wins, Republicans will call it a clear rebuke of President Obama and his party in the district where the president was raised. Democrats will say the important percentage is the combined vote share of both Democratic candidates -- which is expected to top 50 percent -- since only one member of the party will be on the ballot in November. 

WE'LL BE WATCHING: How close Djou actually gets to 50 percent, since if he's elected he will have five-plus months to make the case to voters that he's worth giving a full term. It's an exceedingly tough district for a Republican to hold -- but, it's also an exceedingly tough district for a Republican to take in the first place, and it looks like that's about to happen. 

WEEKEND WARRIORS: Both parties hold state conventions this weekend in Connecticut, with endorsements up for grabs in the Senate and governors races, and a number of House races on the GOP side. The Hartford Courant's editorial board amps up the dramatic anticipation: 'After one of the nastiest pre-convention scraps on record, Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon bring their campaigns for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination to the Hartford convention site for a showdown. There will be blood on the floor, especially since the Senate prize is suddenly within reach, what with the meltdown of Richard Blumenthal, the Democratic state attorney general. Until this week Mr. Blumenthal was considered the prohibitive favorite to succeed Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, and the Democratic state convention, also in Hartford, was to be a mere way station on Mr. Blumenthal's route to coronation as senator. But now it may be an essential stop for him to regain his footing after the publicity over his strange and misleading statements about his military service during the Vietnam War era. This year's Democratic conclave has a historic aura to it in that a Democrat hasn't been elected governor in Connecticut for 24 years. Two headliners from the last convention, [former Stamford Mayor Dan] Malloy and [former Senate candidate Ned] Lamont, are dueling to see which one can carry the party's hopes to end the Democrats' prolonged dry spell.' Any candidate who gets 15 percent support at the convention ends up on the primary ballot, but the delegate vote can be an important test of strength. 

OUR LONG NATIONAL NIGHTMARE IS OVER: The Courant let Blumenthal off the hook Thursday for a lesser offense reported in the Times article Monday: that he'd failed to correct misinformation identifying him as a former member of the Harvard swim team. 'Waterbury native Peter Alter, who was the captain of the Harvard swim team in 1968, the year after Blumenthal graduated, told the Courant this morning that Blumenthal was on the team,' the Courant writes. The Times didn't back down from its story: 'There is no record, according to the Harvard athletic dept records, of Blumenthal being on the team - never getting a varsity letter, never being captain. ... In the past, Harvard had club teams and house teams (sort of intramurals) but that is not the Harvard swim team.'  

ONE TIME, AT RAND CAMP: Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul spent Thursday scrambling to clean up the controversy over his refusal to state whether he'd support the Civil Rights Act. The Herald-Leader: 'To try to quell the firestorm, Paul issued a statement Thursday saying he abhors racism, supports the 1964 Civil Rights Act and blames the liberal media for the uproar. 'I believe we should work to end all racism in American society and staunchly defend the inherent rights of every person.' Paul said in his statement. ...U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Louisville, said in a statement that he found Paul's comments 'simply appalling' and that Paul 'has no place holding public office in Kentucky in the 21st century.'' 
IN THE WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING -- Robert Gibbs, asked for a response to Paul's comments: 'I have not -- I saw clips of the interview; I've not watched the whole thing. I think I would go back to the answer I gave a little bit ago in terms of the narrowness of or the expansiveness of which -- of the party. I think the issues that many fought for in the '50s and the '60s were settled a long time ago in landmark legislation. And a discussion about whether or not you support those I don't think has a real -- shouldn't have a place in our political dialogue in 2010.' 

WE WONDER -- Who feels more confident: Republicans, about Rand Paul's ability to keep it together and not throw away a seat that should lean strongly to the GOP, or Democrats, about Richard Blumenthal's ability to recover from a miserable week and avoid further self-inflicted injuries? 

NEXT WEEK -- PLOUFFE RAISES: Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe is appearing at a fundraiser Tuesday for the DNC's Gen44 young donor group. Also appearing at the Washington event, according to a DNC official: Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, Pennsylvania Rep. Patrick Murphy (who's a Gen44 honorary co-chair) and OFA executive director Mitch Stewart. htt 

DROPPING TODAY -- THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHESS: Businessman Rick Snyder is going up with his newest ad in the GOP primary for governor of Michigan, chiding state Attorney General Mike Cox for running negative ads against a third primary contender, Rep. Pete Hoekstra. 'Bickering never solved anything,' Snyder says in the ad. 'Maybe it's the nerd in me, but whether we believe in Pete Hoekstra's spending or not, he's a good man. Mike Cox, typical politician -- these attacks aren't gonna help.' It's a 30-second spot going up for a week in every market other than Detroit. Watch it here. htt 

RUNOFF TIME: Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln's campaign seized on last night's Senate vote to pass banking reform legislation, calling the bill a sign of the embattled Democrat's influence in Congress. Campaign manager Steve Patterson wrote in an email to supporters: 'The Senate just passed landmark financial regulation. They did it because of Blanche Lincoln. ... Blanche's provisions in the bill bring 100 percent transparency to an unregulated $600 trillion market, close all loopholes and keep jobs on Main Street -- not on Wall Street.' Lincoln's primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, is up with his first ad of their runoff contest, titled, 'Change.' The argument: 'You're not going to be able to change Washington unless you change the people that you send there.' 

RECRUITMENT WATCH -- TEAM PLAYER: Sarah Palin issued her latest endorsement of the 2010 cycle Thursday, backing former NFL player Clint Didier for the Republican Senate nomination in Washington state against Democratic Sen. Patty Murray. That could give Didier a big boost of attention and activist energy -- even as national Republicans continue to urge former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi into the race.  

THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta: 

SENATE: 

CALIFORNIA: The Los Angeles Times parsed state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore's statements about his military record and concluded that the GOP Senate candidate may be stretching his experience a bit. In one debate, for example, DeVore referred to having been 'shot at in Lebanon' -- but he was a college student studying abroad at the time rather than a service member, as the comment implies. 

MISSOURI: GOP Rep. Roy Blunt, under fire from his Democratic Senate opponent for being too close to the oil industry, is sponsoring a bill that would increase oil companies' liability for disasters like the leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Blunt's bill came out hours after Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's campaign released a web video accusing the congressman of wanting 'Missourians to pay for BP's accident.'  

NEW YORK: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand looks like she'll draw a primary challenger, after all. Gail Goode, a trial supervisor in the office of New York City's Corporation Counsel, 'was 'offended' by the constant reports that Gillibrand's challengers were being muscled out of the race,' and will declare soon, the New York Post reports.  

OHIO -- DEMS LOVE: Former Republican Rep. Rob Portman's Senate campaign has been the top recipient of contributions from the health insurance industry this cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Portman took in $358,832 from the industry for his Senate bid. The top Democratic recipient was New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, receiving $285,900. htt

UTAH: Republican Senate candidate Tim Bridgewater said he'd welcome outgoing Sen. Bob Bennett's endorsement in the GOP primary Thursday, hours after Bennett announced he wouldn't campaign for reelection as a write-in candidate. 'I would like everybody's endorsement,' Bridgewater said. 'We have a number of disagreements in terms of policy and votes he's taken, but the battle is now against Washington and trying to transform Washington into a more fiscally conservative, more attuned to the needs of middle America.'
HOUSE: 

CO-07: Military pilot Lang Sias and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier will compete in an August Republican primary after finishing first and second at a district-based nominating convention Thursday night, the Denver Post reports. Frazier took 49 percent of the vote to Sias's 43 percent. htt

ID-01: Democrats in Rep. Walt Minnick's district are needling Republican challenger Vaughn Ward over his failure to vote in the 2008 election, as Sarah Palin visits Boise Friday to stump for Ward's campaign. Ada County Democrats are circulating a sticker mocking Ward, a former McCain campaign staffer, that reads: 'Don't feel bad, Vaughn. I didn't vote for Sarah Palin either.' See it here.  

IN-06: Republican state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP's Senate nomination this month, became the first Republican to officially enter the race for former Rep. Mark Souder's now-vacant House seat. Said Stutzman: 'We must have strong, principled, accountable leadership in Washington that will stand strong for Hoosier values and represent 'We the People.'' ht 

LA-03: Former state House Speaker Hunt Downer entered the Republican primary to succeed Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon, who's running for Senate this year. Downer's bid was long expected, but his official entry into the race is likely to make this seat even more challenging for Democrats to hold.  

NY-15: A former intern in the office of Democratic Rep. Charles Rangel who ran against him in 2008 announced he'll challenge the congressman again this year on a third-party line. Craig Schley, a former male model, isn't the only ex-Rangel staffer running against the lawmaker: Vince Morgan, who's now a banker, is also challenging Rangel in the Democratic primary.  

GOVERNORS: 

FLORIDA: State CFO Alex Sink, the Democratic candidate for governor, dialed up criticism of her leading Republican opponent for having spent $120,000 to retain as an expert witness George Rekers, an anti-gay rights activist recently found to have hired a male escort on the internet. 'When Attorney General McCollum was asked why he would hire a man like this -- who previous courts had said that his testimony had no legitimacy -- his response was, 'Well, it wasn't me who hired him,' Sink said on the radio. 'That sounds to me like a typical politician.'  

HAWAII: Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann's campaign team confirmed, to no one's surprise, that the mayor is moving ahead with a campaign for governor, quashing rumors that he might be planning a Senate bid instead. 'Mufi Hannemann is going to be running for governor. There is no other office he is looking at right now,' said Dean Okimoto, Hannemann's campaign co-chair. Okimoto said Hannemann would announced his candidacy by the end of the month.  

SOUTH CAROLINA: State Rep. Nikki Haley jumped to the front of the GOP primary pack in a Rasmussen poll released Thursday, taking 30 percent of the vote to state Attorney General Henry McMaster's 19 percent, Rep. Gresham Barrett's 17 percent and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's 12 percent. McMaster's campaign responded by releasing internal polling numbers showing him with a slim lead over Haley. ht 

WISCONSIN: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker returned $43,000 in illegal campaign donations after it was found that the CEO of the Wisconsin and Southern Railroad Company reimbursed his employees for contributing to Walker's campaign. William Gardner claims he didn't know it was against the law to funnel corporate cash to candidates in that way.  

2012: 

FRIEND REQUEST ACCEPTED: Tim Pawlenty is hosting a Facebook town hall Friday afternoon with Republican congressional candidate Sean Duffy, who's running for the open seat in retiring House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey's Wisconsin district. Duffy won an early endorsement from Pawlenty, and then came out on top of an online vote that allowed Pawlenty supporters to make their favorite endorsee eligible for additional support from the governor.  

SHARING THE WEALTH: Mitt Romney's PAC donated $32,500 to Republican candidates this week, including $10,000 to Gov. Rick Perry, who appeared with Romney in Houston. The Dallas Morning News reports: 'Others who received $2,500 (the maximum allowed in this cycle of congressional races) from Romney's political committee are U.S. Reps. John Carter, Mike Conaway, Kay Granger, Sam Johnson, Pete Olson, Pete Sessions, Lamar Smith and contenders Quico Conseco and Bill Flores.' 

SANTORUM ON THE STUMP: The former Pennsylvania senator is back in South Carolina this weekend, appearing with Rep. Gresham Barrett, who's running for governor, and state Sen. Mick Mulvaney, who's challenging Rep. John Spratt.

Go to POLITICO POLITICO's Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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