Subject: Targeted districts
From: "Alexander Snyder-Mackler" <[email-masked]>
To: "BB" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Acdonilon" <[email-masked]>, "ted kaufman" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2010 07:54:10 -0400

When Beau returns to work this week, there will be 18 weeks left until
Election Day. In anticipation of us ramping up our door-to-door efforts (and
to guide our volunteer canvasses as we move forward), the attached
spreadsheet lays out our suggested targeted EDs. There are four separate
criteria, each one of which can individually be used on its own to target
districts. For each, only the districts with enough voters to make it worth
our while have made the cut:

1) *Persuadable* -- the most persuadable districts in the state, sorted by
how concentrated the district is (how many actual persuadable voters live
there). This cuts out the districts with high percentages but few voters,
and leaves us with 145 districts, all of which have at least 200 persuadable
voters in them.
2) *Democratic performance* -- the districts with the highest Democratic
performance (over 65%), again sifting out the districts with only a handful
of voters. These 96 districts have at least 120 reliable Dem votes in them.
3) *Beau underperformance* -- The districts statewide in which Beau trailed
Democratic performance by the greatest margins in 06. The districts with the
least persuadability and lowest Democratic performance were removed (no
sense in talking to a district we'd never move), which left us with 83
districts where Beau trailed DP by at least 5%.
4) *New Dems* -- With the glut of new registrants (and new Delawareans)
since 2006, we should be concentrating part of our efforts on educating
those populations on Beau. These are the 100 districts with the most new
Democrats registered since Beau's election.

Each can be taken individually, if we want Beau to go where the new Dems
are, or walk in a GOTV/turnout district, or where he has ground to make up
from 06, etc. But in order to prioritize all of these, you have to look at
the master sheet. When these four criteria are combined, you get the
following results that should educate our micro efforts:
Tier One: Two districts, surprisingly, exist in all four targeted criteria.
Clearly we should be spending time there.
Tier Two: 23 districts fulfill three of the criteria.
Then it goes up from there -- 116 have two targets, and the rest (111) have
one.

In the master sheet, it's sorter by tier and then by persuadability.

This is only one way we'll target -- our paid media, online, phones, etc
give us the ability to do so many different ways. But when determining where
Beau should spend his time when walking; when we're determining which local
candidates to walk with; and when we're doing our own canvassing.

Thoughts and suggestions are, as always, urged.

ASM

-- 

Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-867