Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: NRCC dubs 16 'Young Guns' - Kirk opens fire on Alexi - EMILY's List to back Libby Mitchell - Clinton rocks Colorado - R2K accused of fraud - Palin swats Rahm's language
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2010 05:57:43 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (Twitter: @aburnspolitico)

SCORE EXCLUSIVE -- LOCKED AND LOADED: The NRCC is unveiling 16 new additions to the top level of its "Young Guns" list, giving 15 Republican House nominees and one promising primary candidate access to fresh fundraising and strategic support from the party. The list includes many of the GOP's top candidates to emerge from competitive nomination fights, including Illinois hopefuls Bob Dold (IL-10), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11) and Randy Hultgren (IL-14), Virginia state Sen. Robert Hurt (VA-05), former state legislators David McKinley (WV-01) and Joe Heck (NV-03) and South Dakota state Rep. Kristi Noem (SD-AL). The sole new candidate on the list who hasn't yet won the GOP nomination is Stephen Fincher in Tennessee's 8th Congressional District -- a farmer and gospel singer locked in a costly primary race for retiring Democrat John Tanner's open seat. A GOP official explained the choice: "No one forgets that Fincher got into the race against Tanner when nobody else would run. "

TAKE NOTE: The 16 new names on the list of full-blown "Young Guns" brings the total number of candidates at the top tier of the program to 39 -- not coincidentally, the exact number Republicans would need to take back the House. Also making the NRCC's latest cut are Todd Young (IN-09), Andy Barr (KY-06), David Harmer (CA-11), Rick Crawford (AR-01), Tom Reed (NY-29), Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05) and Keith Fimian (VA-11).

As Bill Clinton makes trouble, Richard Burr takes a hit on energy and Charlie Crist gets his day in court, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

COMING TODAY -- KIRK OPENS FIRE: Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk is putting two new television ads on the air today, including one spot touting the Republican Senate candidate's record fighting pollution in Lake Michigan and another going after Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias - hard - for his record as a banker and state treasurer. "Mark Kirk won praise for helping stop BP when it tried to pollute Lake Michigan," the more upbeat spot declares, before jabbing Giannoulias for a former aide's decision to become a lobbyist for the oil giant. The negative spot begins in a mocking tone: "Alexi Giannoulias is only 34 years old, but what a 34 years it's been. At his father's bank, Alexi made tens of millions in risky loans to convicted mobsters. Then, the bank collapsed." The narrator goes after Giannoulias's tenure as treasurer before delivering the tag line: "Alexi Giannoulias: trust him with your money?" The new ads come a day after Kirk apologized again for misstating parts of his biography, indicating the congressman is ready to take the safety off again in his campaign for President Obama's old Senate seat. http://bit.ly/aSSv2T and http://bit.ly/9NTNDO

FIRST IN SCORE -- REMEMBER THE MAINE: EMILY's List will endorse Maine state Senate President Libby Mitchell's campaign for governor today, calling her a unique leader who was the first woman to lead both chambers of a state legislature. "During her time in the legislature, Libby was able to bring Republicans and Democrats together to help working families and small businesses, expand Head Start, and move Maine towards a more sustainable future," EMILY's List president Stephanie Schriock will say in a statement. Mitchell is one of five Democratic women running for governor's offices with support from EMILY's List; the others are Vermont Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Florida CFO Alex Sink. Schriock adds: "At a time when voters feel dissatisfied, these women have track records of proving that government can work for American women and their families."

TEAM PLAYER: Former President Bill Clinton endorsed former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff's campaign for Senate Tuesday, defying the state and national Democratic powers that be, which have lined up behind appointed Sen. Michael Bennet's bid for reelection. The Denver Post has more: "In a letter that stunned politicos nationwide, Clinton outlined Romanoff's state legislative accomplishments, including putting together an economic recovery plan and passing the largest investment into school construction in the state's history. ... 'Andrew brings to this race both an extraordinary record of public service and an extraordinary capacity to lead,' the two page letter reads ... Clinton is not expected to do anything for Romanoff - no fundraisers, no stump speeches - beyond the letter sent out to supporters Tuesday, [spokesman Matt] McKenna said." http://bit.ly/cXDf31

SNEAK PEEK -- OIL POLITICS: A coalition of four left-of-center groups including the SEIU, VoteVets.org, the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club are launching the first ads in their $11 million campaign to support energy reform legislation, and two of the senators affected by the blitz are up for election this year. The initial buy of $2 million will run broadcast and cable spots in five states, including Nevada, where commercials will thank Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for his position on energy, and North Carolina, where they'll accuse Sen. Richard Burr of being cozy with Big Oil. The Burr spot shows Gulf-style cleanup workers pulling an oil-covered man off the beach and bringing him to get clean, as a narrator explains: "We pulled one out of the water this morning. Completely covered in oil. Name's Sen. Richard Burr." Watch the Burr ad here. http://bit.ly/9hkflb

ACCUSED: Markos Moulitsas, the proprietor of the online liberal hub Daily Kos, leveled an explosive charge at his site's former pollster, accusing Research 2000 of having fabricated results in at least some of the dozens of polls Moulitsas commissioned. POLITICO's David Catanese reports: "The Kos analysis, provided by political consultant Mark Grebner, retired physicist Michael Weissman and research technician Jonathan Weissman, found three main problems: A large set of number pairs were too often only even or odd numbers - rather than independent of each other, a set of polls on separate groups appeared too similar given statistical uncertainties and the consistent lack of change between week-to-week data gathering. ... 'We do not know exactly how the weekly R2K results were created, but we are confident they could not accurately describe random polls,' wrote the authors. Reached by POLITICO, Research 2000 president Del Ali referred all questions to his attorney, but offered, 'I will tell you unequivocally that we conducted every poll properly for the Daily Kos.'" http://politi.co/95VDg8

SCORE'S TAKE: This is a deeply disturbing story that raises questions about just how much we really know about most of the polling information we handle. Research 2000's results have been treated as serious information -- including in Score -- and helped define the conventional wisdom of races like the Arkansas Senate primary. It's already hard enough to sort through the competing data to get a clear picture of the 2010 landscape, but the fog of war just got a lot thicker.

POLL OF THE DAY -- CLOSE IN CALIFORNIA: Democrats lead the races for governor and Senate in the nation's largest state, but only by single digits, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a four-point lead over ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina in her campaign for reelection, 45 percent to 41 percent, while state Attorney General Jerry Brown leads former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in the race for governor, 45 percent to 39 percent. That's better news for Brown -- who's been running a sleepy campaign against a free-spending opponent -- than it is for Boxer. http://bit.ly/aAhe7q

THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Zachary Abrahamson:

SENATE:

CONNECTICUT: State Republican Party Chairman Chris Healy called on state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to give up his office as Connecticut's top prosecutor while he runs for Senate. Republican candidate Linda McMahon didn't go quite as far, but raised similar concerns in an interview with radio host Ray Dunaway. "I'm not too sure what the people of Connecticut hear from Richard Blumenthal," she said. "Are they hearing from the Attorney General or are they hearing from a candidate for the United States Senate?" http://bit.ly/bG4C73

FLORIDA: Gov. Charlie Crist is expected to be called as a witness in the trial of former Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer, the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald report. The Greer case took a new turn when former Florida GOP staffer Delmar Johnson agreed to testify against his former boss and alleged co-conspirator in exchange for immunity. http://bit.ly/ax7r2R

LOUISIANA: Rep. Charlie Melancon's campaign is rolling out a web video today spotlighting the scandal involving David Vitter aide Brent Furer's history of domestic abuse. The video shows clips from the ABC News report on Furer, as captions explain: "He slashed his girlfriend with a knife ... And David Vitter knew." A series of women are shown in the video, opening their mouths but not speaking, as questions for Vitter pop up: "Why did you employ him for two more years? Why did you give him a raise? ... and how could he possibly work on women's issues?" Melancon plans to speak on the scandal personally, at some point. http://bit.ly/cLoeyf

NEVADA: Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle walked back some of her most incendiary past remarks in an appearance on Jon Ralston's television show, explaining she was not advocating violence when she said Second Amendment-friendly voters should "take ... out" Harry Reid. "I meant take him out of office, and taking him out of office is a little different," she said. http://bit.ly/9V96jH

HOUSE:

ID-01: Rep. Walt Minnick picked up support from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, bringing the business lobby into a pro-Minnick camp that already includes the anti-tax Club for Growth and the Tea Party Express. Count that one more potential obstacle falling away from Minnick's path to a second term, and another sign that Republican challenger Raul Labrador is struggling to win over establishment conservative institutions. http://politi.co/a0CMjt

KS-04: Republican self-funder Wink Hartman, already under fire from primary opponent Mike Pompeo for having lived out of state for a stretch of years, has been asked by Florida's Palm Beach County to clarify his residency after claiming a homestead exemption on an expensive house there. Hartman and Pompeo, a California native, are competing in the GOP primary for outgoing Rep. Todd Tiahrt's seat. http://politi.co/cG9Tld

WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert is getting a fundraising boost next week from House Minority Leader John Boehner, who'll headline an event in Reichert's northwest Washington district on June 8. Both Boehner and Whip Eric Cantor have stepped up to help Reichert, even as Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene, a former Microsoft executive, uses his leadership support to argue he runs"to the DC political establishment when he's in trouble." http://bit.ly/avrfGz

WI-08: Physician Marc Trager, who recently exited the Republican primary in Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen's district, committed suicide on Tuesday. Trager had shuttered his campaign citing health reasons. Kagan responded in a statement: "I am shocked and saddened by today's news. The entire Kagen family extends their love and condolences to the Trager family in their time of need." http://bit.ly/avyl9J

GOVERNORS:

CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont is channeling former Gov. Lowell Weicker, the former GOP senator and independent governor, in a new television spot released over the weekend. "I'm going to be nobody's man but yours," Lamont says in the ad, in a line that used to be a Weicker favorite. The Connecticut Mirror wonders if that's a wise choice for Lamont, who's competing for Democratic primary voters at the moment with party-endorsed Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy. http://bit.ly/d9SKoE

MINNESOTA: Former Sen. Mark Dayton may not have won the DFL's endorsement for governor, but he is drawing support from some of the party's establishment heavies. He picked up backing from former state Attorney General Mike Hatch, the 2006 DFL nominee for governor, and former Rep. Bill Luther, who endorsed him over DFL-backed state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. http://bit.ly/bU48C6

OHIO: Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is well below 50 percent in his fight for reelection, but he continues to hold a lead over Republican challenger John Kasich. In a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, Strickland was winning 43 percent of voters, compared with 38 percent for the former congressman. Those numbers are almost exactly unchanged from an April Quinnipiac poll that pegged the race at Strickland 44-Kasich 38. http://bit.ly/aJel5E

VERMONT: The League of Conservation voters picked its candidate in the Democratic primary for governor, endorsing state Sen. Doug Racine's campaign. It's a boost that could help Racine stand out from a field that includes four other Democrats in the environmentalist-friendly state. http://bit.ly/b9gw7E

2012:

GOING THERE: Speaking at a fundraiser for a Georgia group that helps churches work with handicapped worshipers, Sarah Palin cast the White House's new health care reform law as a tax on families with special-needs children. From the AP: "She warned that new rules aiming to raise $13 billion by limiting contributions to flexible spending accounts amount to a 'hefty tax hike' for families of special needs children struggling with health care costs. ... She said she would work to encourage Americans to treat special needs children with respect and that she was disappointed that one of Obama's aides used the word 'retarded.' White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel apologized earlier this year for using the word to describe liberal activists whose tactics on health care he questioned. 'America's too good for that,' she said to applause." http://bit.ly/cMlriN

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