Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Portman on air against cap and trade - Weekly stakes: Who has the most to lose? - Why Steele will probably survive - Greer fires warning shots - Chandler foe's country club problem - Dems fret over Jerry Brown
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 6 Jul 2010 06:53:02 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (Twitter: @aburnspolitico)

SNEAK PEEK -- THE NEXT WAR -- Former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman is going up with a fresh spot for his Senate campaign, staking out a position on the looming legislative fight over energy. The Republican candidate warns viewers of “a new energy tax coming our way from Washington that's a job killer for Ohio. It's called cap and trade.” “Our factories are hit particularly hard. It could cost Ohio 100,000 jobs we cannot afford to lose,” he says, hawking his employment plan and offering a plug for his website.

Democrats believe Portman's most serious vulnerability is his time as trade representative in the last Bush administration, when he led the charge for policies that aren't popular in Rust-Belt Ohio. This ad is the latest in a series of positive commercials intended to define the economic debate in Portman's favor. Watch it here. http://bit.ly/bsZv5R

As Rick Perry gets some 2012 hype, J.D. Hayworth gets a pre-mortem and members of Congress get a glimpse of the home front, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

WEEKLY STAKES -- TUESDAY EDITION: The holiday recess is well underway for many lawmakers, but the 2010 election stakes are as high as ever. Here's our weekly list of the campaigns that have the most to gain or lose in the next few days:

(1) West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin, who's coming up fast on the point where he'll have to make a decision about filling the late Sen. Robert Byrd's vacant seat; (2) Senior House Democrats, like John Spratt and Chet Edwards, who are courting their constituents at home while the GOP turns the screws on the federal budget; (3) Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who's the latest Democratic Senate candidate trying to balance the president's fundraising power with his low approval numbers. (4) Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, whose Republican Senate opponent is flush with cash and mounting a renewed and vigorous offensive; (5) Georgia Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, whose rivals in the Republican gubernatorial primary sense blood in the water as they run out of time to bring him down; (6) Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, who promised to start making up ground in the DFL's primary for governor by airing television ads after July 4.

CALL HIM 'THE SURVIVOR' -- RNC Chairman Michael Steele had yet another rough string of days after his comments last week questioning the war in Afghanistan. But even as the knives come out for him, the Wall Street Journal explains why he's likely to withstand the opposition of Bill Kristol, Liz Cheney and more: “Republican Party rules could make it difficult for any of Mr. Steele's critics to secure his ouster. Under the rules, two-thirds of the committee's 168 members, or 112 members, would have to vote in favor of such a move. Mr. Steele won the RNC chairmanship by 91-77 vote on the last ballot against [former South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon] Dawson. If all members who opposed Mr. Steele in 2009 voted against him in an ouster vote, the vote would not succeed unless 35 members who had backed Mr. Steele for chairman now opposed him. 'It's very hard to force a chairman out of his position,' Mr. Dawson said, [adding] that many committee members were currently busy preparing for November's elections. 'I don't sense they want the distraction.'” http://bit.ly/9XnHjz

CAN BLUNT GO HOME AGAIN? Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt is up with the first television commercial of his Senate campaign today -- a statewide biographical spot detailing the Republican's background as a high school teacher and university president. It's a message that pushes back on efforts -- from Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and Republican primary challenger Chuck Purgason -- to label Blunt, the former House GOP whip, as a Washington insider. “I was taught there was nothing you couldn't achieve through education and hard work. But now that America's threatened,” Blunt says in the ad. “Irresponsible spending and crippling debt are killing jobs today and our children's future tomorrow.” Not mentioned in the ad: the word “congressman.” Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/dwlfEo

BIG 2010 IDEA -- BROWNOUT: California Democrats are getting angsty about the state of Jerry Brown's campaign, and strategist Garry South summed up the concern that the former governor is too confident that he can play by his own rules. “If you're going to run for governor, you have to do what it takes. You can't tell yourself or tell everyone else there is some special way for you to do this that is completely outside the norms that apply to everyone else,” he told the Los Angeles Times. More from the paper: “A Brown spokesman said such anxiety is misplaced. 'We are confident that the Brown campaign is doing the things that need to be done and we're in the position we want to be in,' said spokesman Sterling Clifford. 'I think that kind of worry is in the DNA of the Democratic Party.'” http://bit.ly/ampbfM

HOUSE RACE MUST-READ -- CHANDLER FOE HAS COUNTRY CLUB PROBLEM -- Andy Barr, the attorney challenging Kentucky Democrat Ben Chandler this fall, belongs to a country club that had an all-white membership until 2009, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports: “Barr campaign manager John Connell confirmed to POLITICO that Barr belongs to the Idle Hour Country Club, an 85-year-old Lexington institution. Barr's family is active in the club, Connell said, and the candidate is a life-long member. ... In 1999, Kentucky's Human Rights Commission launched an investigation into the membership policies of Idle Hour and other exclusive clubs, though the case was eventually abandoned. Idle Hour received renewed media attention last year after University of Kentucky basketball coach John Calipari declined to join the club.” http://politi.co/9J4uBp

J.D. DOA? The Arizona Capitol Times takes the pulse of J.D. Hayworth's primary challenge to Sen. John McCain and the EKG line isn't pretty. Money quotes courtesy of GOP consultants Chris Baker --“They don't see him as a rock-star conservative. They don't see J.D. the same way J.D. sees himself” -- and Chad Willems: “J.D.'s gotten himself into some trouble and he's made some mistakes here, and the McCain campaign has capitalized. ... Ridicule does work.” http://bit.ly/anzWFR

SPEAKING OF RIDICULE: The McCain camp rolled out new commercials this week slamming Hayworth for his initial, dismissive response to reports on his work as a pitch man for the National Grants Conferences scam. Hayworth is shown shrugging, “Buyer beware,” before the narrator cuts in to add: “Voter beware.” http://bit.ly/ao6cVI

GREER WATCH -- THE WITNESS LIST: Former Republican Party of Florida Chairman Jim Greer continues firing warning shots into the air, ahead of his trial on multiple fraud charges. Greer's former political patron, Gov. Charlie Crist, is just one of the candidates who should take notice, the Orlando Sentinel reports: “A criminal defense attorney for former Florida GOP chairman Jim Greer on Monday promised to make defense witnesses of some of the most powerful people in Florida politics - Gov. Charlie Crist, Attorney General Bill McCollum and state Republican chief John Thrasher. ... J. Cheney Mason also said he'll depose two other GOP power brokers who have become Greer adversaries - prospective Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon, of Winter Park, and soon-to-be Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolis, of Merritt Island. Greer, his lawyer said, was the victim of right-wing conservatives who turned against Crist.” http://bit.ly/bBULQq

BLACK LISTED: The Susan B. Anthony List is endorsing state Sen. Diane Black today for the open House seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. Black's in a competitive primary that also includes former county GOP head Lou Ann Zelenik. SBA List's Marjorie Dannenfelser says in a statement that Black makes a trio with two other conservative women from Tennessee -- Rep. Marsha Blackburn and House candidate Robin Smith -- who show “that Americans are responding to authentic pro-life feminism.”

2012 TALKER -- PINING FOR PERRY: Former Club for Growth head Stephen Moore told a gathering of Texas conservatives in Washington Friday that he has high hopes for Rick Perry -- beyond November. “We're going to put Rick Perry in the White House in 2012,” he said, according to a widely circulated tweet from Politics Daily's Matt Lewis. Moore clarified -- but didn't backtrack -- in an e-mail to Morning Score: “I was saying nice things about Perry because he was there. He's been an outstanding governor. One of the best. I like Christie a lot too.” http://bit.ly/bdAD1C

ALSO DRIVING THE 2010 CONVERSATION -- with POLITICO's Zachary Abrahamson:

- NOW wants Vitter out: The National Organization for Women called on the Senate to “expel Sen. David Vitter” as part of a platform adopted at NOW's national conference. Vitter's facing questions about his failure to dismiss an aide, Brent Furer, who allegedly attacked his then-girlfriend with a knife two years ago. http://bit.ly/c9vvay

- Gone but not forgotten: Rick Perry didn't participate in a Texas gubernatorial debate Monday night, leaving former Democratic Houston Mayor Bill White and Libertarian Kathie Glass to bash him on their own. “Rick Perry will see how many times he can say (President) Obama and liberal in slick T.V. commercials and see if that will get him by with 51 percent of the vote,” White predicted. http://bit.ly/bnvMEy

- Ketner takes a pass: Former South Carolina congressional candidate Linda Ketner won't run for Senate as an independent this year, despite the urgings of former staffers that she take on Republican Sen. Jim DeMint. Her decision leaves unemployed veteran Alvin Greene as the sole Democratic candidate on the fall ballot. http://bit.ly/c3Q4HW

- Angle tells Reid to knock it off: Nevada's GOP Senate nominee sent a cease and desist letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's campaign last week, after Reid's camp republished an old version of Angle's campaign website that included contentious policy proposals like eliminating the Department of Education. Reid's campaign called the suit frivolous, but the website -- therealsharronangle.com -- is no longer active. http://bit.ly/bqBSwC

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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