Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Byrne claims poll bump, Bonner endorsement - Friday standings: Who had a good week? - Obama swats Angle - Manchin has the power - Judge strikes down DOMA - Crist calls special session
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 06:18:51 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

SCORE EXCLUSIVE -- BYRNE AFTER READING: Alabama gubernatorial candidate Bradley Byrne is claiming a surge of momentum days before Tuesday's Republican runoff primary. Campaign pollster Jan Van Lohuizen wrote in a memo yesterday evening that Byrne has “gained 7 percent of the vote while [opponent Robert] Bentley has dropped 7 percent] in the last week.” In 300 tracking interviews conducted last night, Van Lohuizen said, Byrne was ahead by four percentage points, after trailing by two percent in 800 interviews conducted Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The pollster identified Bentley's widely covered relationship with the Alabama Education Association as the “issue driving the change in the race,” writing to the candidate: “[V]oters are reminded of the fact that you will take on the AEA, and are learning that Bentley is supported by the AEA and has voted with the AEA as a state legislator.”

Byrne was endorsed last night by Rep. Spencer Bachus and he'll pick up support today from Rep. Jo Bonner at an event in southern Alabama, a source familiar with the plans told Score. With the primary four days away, every shot of support counts for Byrne, who came in first in the initial round of voting but has trailed Bentley in some polling of the runoff. http://bit.ly/d9iaj6

As Dems warn of fundraising woe, Bill Owens makes new friends and Sharron Angle goes on the air, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

FRIDAY STANDINGS -- ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW? A little more than 16 weeks remain between now and Election Day and the lull between major primary days is about to come to an end. Here's Morning Score's weekly take on how some of the most important campaigns should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago?

YES: (1) Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, whose in- and out-of-state profile only rises further with every immigration-themed confrontation with the White House, and who's showcasing her influence in the GOP by making endorsements in Georgia and Oklahoma primaries; (2) Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek, who continues to execute a fear-the-turtle strategy in his state's Senate race, posting another seven-figure quarter and staking out the clearest liberal-leaning issue positions in the race; (3) Minnesota television stations, already benefiting from multiple self-funding candidates for governor, that can look forward to a House race in Rep. Michele Bachmann's district that will probably be the most expensive in the country.

NO: (1) Louisiana Sen. David Vitter, who struggled badly in his first question-and-answer session with reporters since news of an aide's domestic violence record broke; (2) Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, who took heat for giving raises to his staff while making budget cuts and suffered from renewed coverage of his indicted predecessor, Rod Blagojevich; (3) New York congressional candidate Chris Cox, who lost his heavyweight campaign team and now faces calls to pull out of the GOP primary for Rep. Tim Bishop's seat.

THE WEST VIRGINIA DECIDER: The fate of Robert Byrd's Senate seat is in West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin's hands now, more than ever, after the state attorney general ruled that the governor can call a special election in November if he wants to. The Charleston Gazette reports: “'Since a general election is already scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2010, it is suggested that a special primary election be held at a time which maximizes the opportunity for all potential candidates to prepare for both the special election and general election,' the opinion states. ... 'In light of this opinion, I plan to speak with the state's legislative leadership immediately to determine how we will further proceed in order to reach a conclusion in this matter,' Manchin said.” http://bit.ly/cLmSUQ

OBAMA VS. ANGLE: The president targeted Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle in a speech to supporters of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Thursday night, telling a crowd in Las Vegas that the former state assemblywoman “favors an approach that's even more extreme than the Republicans we got in Washington.” “I mean, she wants to phase out and privatize Social Security and Medicare,” Obama said, hitting Angle hardest on her comments this week about the BP oil disaster: “She called the compensation we're providing a slush fund. ... her campaign puts out a memo saying, well, she didn't mean that. They said there was some 'confusion.' And I'm sure she meant 'slush fund' in the nicest possible way.”

DROPPING TODAY -- Angle is going up with her first television ad against Reid, running a grim, 60-second spot statewide that focuses on Nevada's unemployment rate. The commercial has no narration -- just somber string music and text captions including: “Since Harry Reid has become Majority Leader, 135,000 Nevadans have become unemployed.” Watch it here. http://bit.ly/9Vys2X

CURVE BALL: First it was Arizona's immigration law, then it was the oil disaster, now -- gay marriage? The divisive social issue could jump way up the list of 2010 debates after a Massachusetts judge ruled the Defense of Marriage Act unconstitutional. From the Boston Globe: “Judge Joseph L. Tauro ruled that the federal Defense of Marriage law violates the Constitutional right of married same-sex couples to equal protection under the law and upends the federal government's long history of allowing states to set their own marriage laws.'” And guess who brought one of the suits Tauro ruled on? That would be none other than Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley. http://bit.ly/bYHzU8

IT'S GOOD TO BE GOVERNOR: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announced he will call the state Legislature into a special session to take up a proposed constitutional ban on offshore oil drilling, telling the press: “I'm going to be governor for about six more months, and I think I wouldn't be doing my duty as governor if I did not call for this special session.” The Republican-turned-independent Senate candidate instantly faced questions about his motives -- most aggressively from former primary opponent Marco Rubio -- but insisted, according to the Miami Herald: “Politics has nothing to do with this. ... This has everything to do with doing what's right for a place that I love. I love Florida.” http://bit.ly/c7Atb9

SCORE'S TAKE: Crist continues to walk a VERY fine line between running a shrewd, front-porch campaign and nakedly exploiting his office for political gain. The biggest risk for him is that if The People decide he's crossed that line, there's probably no going back. His biggest asset is that he'll keep getting all the free air time he wants to insist that he's just being a good guy.

HOUSE RACE MUST READ -- NOT A DIVIDER: New York Rep. Bill Owens was sent to Congress in a narrow special election win last year, but this time around some prominent local Republicans have warmed to the moderate Democrat. Plattsburgh Mayor Don Kasprzak and Moriah Supervisor Tom Scozzafava (no relation to Dede) both voiced support for Owens this week and Scozzafava endorsed his campaign. From WNBZ: Kasprzak “said he wouldn't endorse [Republican Matt] Doheny or [Doug] Hoffman. ... Scozzafava has made a career of rocking the Essex County GOP boat. ... And he said last year's battle between Hoffman and Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava left a bad taste in his mouth.” http://bit.ly/8XgJRM

SOUND THE ALARM: Democrats are circulating a memo warning that Republican-aligned independent groups have pledged to spend $301.5 million on the 2010 cycle. DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen, whose committee is the best-positioned of the Democratic campaign engines, amplified the message in the Washington Post: “There's a real danger that we'll see an avalanche of special-interest money flowing into these campaigns. ... This kind of money can clearly affect the outcome of elections. That's why they're doing it. And that's why it's important [for Democrats] to try and confront the challenge.” http://bit.ly/dvSRhb

ACROSS THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta:

- Cantor for Altschuler: House Minority Leader Eric Cantor campaigned for Long Island congressional candidate Randy Altschuler Thursday. Altschuler, an electronics recycling executive, is competing with Christopher Cox and former SEC attorney George Demos for the GOP nomination in Rep. Tim Bishop's district. http://politi.co/9botXq

- Gingrich in Wisconsin: The former House speaker will stump for GOP House candidate and reality TV veteran Sean Duffy in Wausau this morning. Duffy is the top Republican running for outgoing Democratic Rep. David Obey's seat, with his general election opponent expected to be state Sen. Julie Lassa. http://bit.ly/bfeJBA

- The new cash leader: Republican Charlie Baker has taken a financial lead in the Massachusetts governor's race, outpacing Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick and independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill by the end of June. Baker had $2.97 million in the bank, compared with $2.95 million for Cahill and $2.37 million for Patrick. http://bit.ly/bWGnD3

- RGA's new recruit: Timmy Teepell, the chief of staff to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is going on leave for three months to help the Republican Governors Association work on turnout efforts for the fall campaign. That's a new kind of project for the RGA, which has largely focused on paid media so far this cycle. http://bit.ly/b3zRVl

- Haslam's to lose: Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam holds a double-digit lead in Tennessee's Republican gubernatorial primary, according to a poll conducted for WSMV-TV. Haslam takes 32 percent of the vote, compared with 21 percent for Rep. Zach Wamp, 11 percent for Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey -- and 36 percent of voters undecided. http://bit.ly/977TZl

- Really committed? The New York Times reports that some gay rights advocates are concerned that New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo may not be fully invested in fighting for same-sex marriage. From the paper: “He did not publicly support it until he ran for attorney general in 2006 - eight years after Eliot Spitzer said he favored it and 12 years after Mr. Paterson did so.” http://nyti.ms/bjcWNY

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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