Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Romney backs Runyan, Lance, more - Monday stakes: Who has the most to lose? - AFL-CIO launches work site campaign - NRSC hits Reid's trial lawyer trip - Palin funds Murkowski foe, stiffs Haley - Perriello raises $660K
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2010 06:04:15 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

SCORE EXCLUSIVE -- NOW ENTERING NEW JERSEY: Mitt Romney will put his marker down in the Garden State today, endorsing three Republican House challengers and backing first-term Rep. Leonard Lance for reelection. He'll throw his support to Highlands Mayor Anna Little, who's challenging Rep. Frank Pallone; former NFL player Jon Runyan, who's running against Rep. John Adler; and financier Scott Sipprelle, the challenger to Rep. Rush Holt. The former Massachusetts governor's PAC, Free and Strong America, will send a $2,500 contribution to each candidate.

The endorsements put Romney's seal of approval on every Republican in a remotely competitive race in New Jersey this year. Adler's the only Democratic incumbent in jeopardy at this point, but Little ran a strong primary campaign with activist support and Sipprelle has wielded his bank account against Holt with early television ads. Romney's shown special interest in New Jersey before: he endorsed now-Gov. Chris Christie in May of 2009, back when he was in a primary against Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan.

As David Vitter gets new challengers, Sarah Palin gets professional and Dean Martin gets a one-way ticket home, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

MONDAY STAKES -- Primary season is about to start up again in this, the sixteenth week before Election Day. As Alabama voters go to the polls and Georgia prepares to go a week from tomorrow, here are the candidates and groups that have the most to gain or lose in the next few days:

(1) Chris Van Hollen and the DCCC, who need rising Democratic fears about losing the House to generate enthusiasm (and money), rather than panic; (2) Rick Barber, the Montgomery bar owner in a runoff against Martha Roby for Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright's seat, who will either see his 15 minutes come to an end or find out just how far his flamboyant TV advertising can take him; (3) Teachers' unions, which should be keeping a close eye on the Alabama gov primary between one Republican, Robert Bentley, who's friendly with the Alabama Education Association, and another, Bradley Byrne, whose animating purpose is to take it down; (4) West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin, the man who would be senator, who can probably lock down Robert Byrd's seat if he handles this week's special session well; (5) David Vitter and Lisa Murkowski, either of whom could attract a feeding frenzy from national media eager for another bloody Senate primary.

WEEKEND-IN-REVIEW -- SOUND THE ALARM: White House press secretary Robert Gibbs acknowledged in a “Meet the Press” appearance yesterday that the Democratic House majority is legitimately endangered this fall. “There's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control -- there is no doubt about that,” he said. “This will depend on strong campaigns by Democrats.” http://politi.co/bmiBjZ

WHY DEMOCRATS NEED THIS: If the base doesn't realize just how high the stakes are, they won't engage -- with enthusiasm, volunteer hours and money -- at the level Democrats want.

WHY REPUBLICANS LOVE THIS: It's a whole lot easier to sell donors and interest groups on the idea that the House is in play, when the White House says that the House is in play.

DROPPING TODAY -- LABOR LAUNCHES: The AFL-CIO is kicking off a 23-state campaign to reach out to workers in targeted races, blanketing 164 work sites with 300,000 flyers praising labor-allied politicians and hitting their opponents. The group will praise Harry Reid with leaflets saying his “record as majority leader of the U.S. Senate has helped level the playing field for Nevada's working families,” while taking aim at Republicans including California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (“Fiorina cares more about protecting Wall Street's profits than Main Street's workers”) and Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady (“Do minimum wage workers deserve a pay cut? Bill Brady thinks so.”) See examples here http://politi.co/9Q3zoD , and here http://politi.co/bOKS9l and here http://politi.co/a0ObrE

SUNDAY NIGHT -- DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR SENATOR WAS? The NRSC plans to take aim this morning at Harry Reid for attending a Vancouver convention for the American Association for Justice, the trial lawyers' group, over the weekend. The hit is a two-fer for Senate Republicans: they take a dig at Reid for raising money with trial lawyers and get another hit against him for attending a professional convention outside Las Vegas. The NRSC will note that the event comes “as the state of Nevada tops the nation with 14 percent unemployment and the Las Vegas convention industry continues to struggle,” and ask which other Democratic Senate candidates were at the convention: a fundraising form encouraged donors to contribute to a dozen Democrats and promised, “you will have an opportunity to meet many of these candidates.”

2012 TALKER -- PALIN'S HAUL: The former Alaska governor stepped up her fundraising game last quarter, raising and spending money more like a presidential candidate. POLITICO's Ken Vogel has the details: “Palin's political action committee raised more money in the second quarter of this year - $866,000 - than it had in any previous three-month stretch since Palin formed the group in January 2009. The committee, Sarah PAC, also spent nearly twice as much - $742,000 - as it had in any previous quarter, the lion's share of which went to the type of list-building and fundraising (including its first major direct-mail campaign) that typically undergird top-tier political committees.” http://politi.co/bVa3pS

PLUS -- WHO GOT THE CASH? Palin donated $87,500 to candidates from her PAC, with Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski's obscure primary challenger receiving a $5,000 payout from the ex-governor. AP: “Republican candidates receiving money from Palin for the period covering April 1 to June 30 include Terry Branstad, who is running for governor of Iowa, and Joe Miller, who's challenging Alaska U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the August Republican primary. Each received $5,000. Among Palin's other high-profile endorsements: Republican Carly Fiorina, who's running for the U.S. Senate from California, received $2,500. But Nikki Haley, who's running for governor in South Carolina and for whom Palin made a campaign appearance, got no money, according to the filings.” http://bit.ly/9YumE4

PRIMARY WATCH -- BLOOD IN THE WATER -- Louisiana Sen. David Vitter drew two new challengers at the last minute Friday: former state Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor, who will fight Vitter for the GOP nomination, and state Rep. Ernest Wooton, who left the GOP to run as an independent in the general election. Traylor started delivering an Anybody-But-Vitter message Friday, telling the Baton Rouge Advocate: “I just had so many phone calls in the last few days, so many people wanting a different choice than what we have right now, that I finally made the decisions to get in.” http://bit.ly/cvosdP

HOUSE RACE MUST-READ -- HOW TO SURVIVE? The Richmond Times-Dispatch took a look at Virginia's two most endangered Democrats this weekend, and the divergent approaches they're taking to defend against a GOP wave. From the paper: “[Tom] Perriello, representing Southside's sprawling 5th District, is running as a more traditional Democrat who has backed many of President Barack Obama's signature programs, while [Glenn] Nye, who represents Hampton Roads' 2nd District, is taking a more independent course. ... Nye voted for the stimulus package, but against health-care reform and against cap-and-trade legislation. He joined most congressional Democrats in voting for the financial regulatory reform bill. His campaign website touts his independence: 'An independent voice, for a change.' [UVA's Isaac] Wood said this could help Nye among independents, but hurt him with the Democratic base. The reverse could be true for Perriello, he said.” http://bit.ly/b05zlZ

SPEAKING OF -- BUILDING THE SEA WALL: Perriello raised $660,000 last quarter, bringing his cash-on-hand total to $1.7 million, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports. No word on challenger Robert Hurt's numbers yet. http://politi.co/downJK

NOTED -- THUNE UNBOUND: South Dakota Democrats failed to field even a nominal challenger to Sen. John Thune, leaving the Daschle-slaying speculative presidential candidate free to hit the road for other Republicans. The Argus Leader notes that it's “the first time in state history that one of the two major political parties in South Dakota has failed to field a candidate in a U.S. Senate race. ... Already, Thune has campaigned on behalf of Senate candidates in Ohio, Missouri, California and others. He also is planning to help the state party with fundraising for races within South Dakota. 'Not having an opponent frees me up to do more,' the senator said.” http://bit.ly/ap7y0p

ACROSS THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta:

- Something in the water in Connecticut? Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley seems to have a bit of a Richard Blumenthal problem. His campaign website claims that during his work with Iraq's Coalition Provisional Authority, he was “dinning bulletproof vests, dodging rockets and mortars, and avoiding IEDs.” But after coming back from Iraq, Foley, a wealthy self-funder, said that he “never once ran into a situation I considered hostile.” http://bit.ly/8WXyGo

- Shooting war in Florida gov primary. Former hospital executive Rick Scott has escalated his fight with Florida's GOP establishment as he competes with state Attorney General Bill McCollum for the Republican nomination. Scott linked McCollum and other state officeholders to indicted former party chairman Jim Greer, frustrating Republicans eager to turn the page. “[W]e were never anti-Rick Scott. We were pro-McCollum,” state Senate president Mike Haridopolos told POLITICO. “Now it's like, this guy's putting his toe into a water that he doesn't understand.” http://politi.co/as5LGb

- Arcuri gets annoyed. The AP took a look this weekend at New York Democrats' preparations for a tougher cycle, noting that former Rep. Eric Massa's seat is looking like a good bet for Republicans and Rep. Michael Arcuri is fighting for his life. The congressman grew “visibly irritated” when asked about his flip-flop on health care, voting for it and then against it on the second round: “He said he voted 'no' the second time because the bill did not include some of the cost containment measures included in the first version. 'I am so tired of people inside the Beltway and in New York City telling everyone how I should vote and how people in my district think. It's dramatically unpopular up here,' Arcuri said.” http://bit.ly/aWJoUa

- Dean Martin pulls out. Arizona state Treasurer Dean Martin suspended his campaign for governor, easing Gov. Jan Brewer's path to the GOP nomination. “Our state and the residents of Arizona are more important than playing politics,” said Martin, who was considered a favorite to beat Brewer before their state's immigration law vaulted her to political prominence. Wealthy NRA board member Buz Mills remains in the primary race. http://bit.ly/cOqaFB

- Lamontagne wins one. The conservative lawyer running for New Hampshire's Republican Senate nomination scored a clear win in a straw poll at the 12th annual Taxpayer Reunion Picnic, taking 109 votes to Jim Bender's 74, Kelly Ayotte's 23 and Bill Binnie's 10. The Union Leader featured his win on the front page, above the fold. http://bit.ly/cpGyur

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