Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Blunt, Carnahan going on offense - What to watch in Georgia tonight - Dems bounce on generic ballot - DSCC attacks on Bush - Manchin's decision comes today - Bill White avoids Obama
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2010 06:03:37 -0400 (EDT)

(@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

SCORE EXCLUSIVE -- THEY CALL THIS 'THE FUN PART' -- The Missouri Senate race, a closely matched open-seat contest between GOP Rep. Roy Blunt and Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, is about to enter a new, more negative phase, with each candidate taking the fight more explicitly to their opponent. Blunt's campaign is launching a buzzy statewide television buy today that uses President Barack Obama's recent campaign trip for Carnahan against her, highlighting the president's comment in Kansas City that he needs “another vote” in the Senate. The ad's narrator lists several controversial Democratic policy proposals -- “government control of health care ... a new energy tax” -- before the ad cuts back to Obama saying: “It'd already have been done, if I had Robin Carnahan there.” Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/bsujMN

While Blunt works to tie Carnahan to the president, Carnahan is kicking off a third tour of the state -- her campaign calls it the “Stop the Bull Tour” -- with plans to deliver her most detailed and direct criticism to date of Blunt's close ties to the Beltway. “This culture of corruption in Washington that encourages special favors and backroom deals must end,” Carnahan said in a statement to Score. “We deserve leaders that are fighting for us instead of hiding behind closed doors and cutting secret deals for corporate special interests in Washington.” And that's basically the choice in this race, as the candidates will continue to define it: a Democrat in the pocket of the White House versus a Republican in the pocket of special interests.

As Sarah Palin plays in New Hampshire, Walt Minnick rebuffs the tea party and Mitch Daniels and John Thune hit the road, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

TONIGHT -- BOARD THE MIDNIGHT TRAIN -- It's primary night in Georgia, with a competitive governor's race and several competitive House races on the ballot. Here are the most important results to watch: (1) How easily does former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes win his party's nomination? He's the all but certain Democratic nominee, but is there any way his opponents hold him under 50 percent? (2) What the heck happens in the GOP gov race? Former Secretary of State Karen Handel appears to be surging, but the polls are all over the place. (3) How do Democratic Reps. John Barrow and Hank Johnson fare against their primary challengers? Will another health care-themed challenge (against Barrow) flop? (4) Will Republicans get Austin Scott, their favored challenger against Rep. Jim Marshall, now or after a runoff? (5) How convincingly will GOP Rep. Tom Graves, who recently won a special election for former Rep. Nathan Deal's seat, hold off a primary from his defeated special-election opponent, Lee Hawkins?

BONUS QUESTION: How will immigration end up playing in the Republican gubernatorial primary, where Handel's been touting an endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer and Deal has been running ads promising an Arizona-style law for his state?

BUT FIRST -- IN WEST VIRGINIA: Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin plans to hold a press conference at the state capitol to “discuss his intentions regarding a possible U.S. Senate run.” He's expected to enter the race, after cajoling the West Virginia Legislature into passing a bill that schedules a special election for Robert Byrd's seat this fall. http://bit.ly/97a35D

IS THE DEM MESSAGE GELLING? The majority party has at least a little new reason for optimism this week, as President Obama prepares to sign a popular financial reform bill and win a fight with the Senate GOP over extending unemployment benefits. And just as Dems seemed to be really stretching to make George W. Bush a part of the 2010 conversation, both NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions and NRSC Chairman John Cornyn went ahead and offered Bush-friendly comments on NBC's “Meet the Press.” The cumulative effect is to give Democrats a chance to grandstand on genuinely popular policies, for once, while more plausibly describing the GOP as a party of the past. That's exactly what the DSCC (and other Democratic committees) will try to do the rest of the week, asking top GOP candidates to explain in exactly what ways they would break with the policies of the Bush administration (The DSCC's demand: “Name two.”)

WATCH THE BOUNCE: House Democrats jumped in Gallup's generic ballot test to their best performance this year, leading Republicans 49 percent to 43 percent in the battle for the House. Gallup links the bump to the passage of Wall Street reform, but notes: “Whether the Democrats' edge is sustainable remains to be seen. Republicans held a four-point or better lead over Democrats in three Gallup weekly averages thus far this year, but in each case, the gap narrowed or collapsed to a tie the following week.” http://bit.ly/awh8wF

2012 TALKER: Sarah Palin made her first New Hampshire endorsement this cycle, backing Republican former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte's Senate campaign. “It's my honor to endorse a Granite State 'mama grizzly' who has broken barriers, fought off and locked up criminals,” Palin wrote on her Facebook page. “Kelly is the strongest commonsense conservative who can win in the fall. ... I know this Granite Grizzly will represent New Hampshire with distinction in Washington.” Ayotte is in a competitive GOP primary for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's seat, competing against investor Bill Binnie, attorney Ovide Lamontagne and others. http://bit.ly/cyoa8b

SCORE'S TAKE: This endorsement will be the most revealing test yet of Palin's reach as a conservative leader and possible presidential candidate. So far, her big plays have been in states -- South Carolina, Georgia, even California -- where the GOP base is basically friendly to her brand of politics. But will the same be true for socially moderate, independent-leaning, let-us-make-up-our-own-minds New Hampshire, where voters already have their own impression of Ayotte?

SIGN OF THE TIMES -- WHITE STEERS CLEAR: President Obama is headed to Texas for a pair of Democratic fundraisers in early August, the Austin American-Statesman's Jason Embry reports, but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White isn't expected to attend either. Embry: “Expect Gov. Rick Perry to use the president's appearance to link Obama and former Houston Mayor Bill White, who is running against Perry. Perry has repeatedly sought to tie Obama to White, even though White has criticized the administration on a number of fronts. ... 'That week is jam packed, and he's not scheduled to be in Austin or Houston at all except for the night of the 12th,' [White spokeswoman Katy] Bacon said. 'In August, Bill will be talking with Texans about the future of our state.'” http://bit.ly/cq0Hrz

MEET THE NEW CHARLIE: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal indicating he's softened his position on health care reform -- he now wants the law “modified,” rather than repealed. It's the latest in a long series of moves that make the governor more palatable to Democrats and independents, while leaving him open to charges of flip-flopping from ... everybody. And Crist is in open communication with at least some Democrats in Washington, too, the paper reports: “Mr. Crist said he had spoken twice in recent weeks with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The governor said he had not offered any assurances that he would caucus with the Democrats as an independent, but the discussions with Mr. Reid signal that he may be moving in that direction.” http://bit.ly/9YTx6c

HOUSE RACE MUST-READ -- TOXIC: The Tea Party express probably thought it was doing Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick a favor when it gave him its lone endorsement for a Democrat this cycle. Now, Minnick's rejecting the Tea Party Express's backing, after the organization failed to expel activist Mark Williams for attacking the NAACP in racially inflammatory terms. “Since the Tea Party Express refuses to reject and rebuke Mr. Williams, I have no choice but to decline your endorsement,” Minnick wrote to the group on Monday, according to POLITICO's Kasie Hunt. Minnick's opponent, Republican state Rep. Raul Labrador, is a favorite among local tea party groups. http://politi.co/90xa5s

ACROSS THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta:

-- Crossing over in Michigan. Former GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz, who considered running for governor this year as an independent, backed former Gateway executive Rick Snyder in the GOP gubernatorial primary and is encouraging Democrats and independents to cross over and vote for him on Aug. 3. “I'm confident that Rick is going to be able to work with both Republicans and Democrats in Lansing and follow through on his agenda,” Schwarz said. http://bit.ly/9dyXdd

-- Oil politics, GOP edition. Tennessee Rep. Zach Wamp is up with a television ad attacking his gubernatorial primary rival Bill Haslam, the mayor of Knoxville, as a “billionaire oil man who price gouged Tennesseans when we were hurting the most.” The charge refers to Haslam's work with his family's Pilot Travel Centers company, which settled a price-gouging case while Haslam was mayor. http://bit.ly/b1Ojx2

-- McInnis to critics: Drop dead. Does former Colorado Rep. Scott McInnis need to say it again? The answer is “probably,” but on Monday the Republican reiterated once more that he will not leave the race for governor in the wake of a plagiarism scandal. “I'm not getting out of this. They are bullying the wrong guy. I love the fight,” he said, insisting no Republicans have called on him to exit. http://bit.ly/c55sWA

-- Malloy's labor muscle. The Connecticut SEIU backed Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy's campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor, boosting Malloy against self-funded former Senate candidate Ned Lamont. The SEIU's six affiliates voted unanimously to back Malloy, while Lamont has the support of the Connecticut Education Association, UAW and other labor groups. http://bit.ly/dkzL3H

-- 2012 watch: Daniels and Thune. Two potential GOP presidential contenders, Indiana Gov Mitch Daniels and South Dakota Sen. John Thune, are scheduled to visit swing states that broke for President Obama in 2008. Daniels plans to visit Ohio on Thursday to campaign for gubernatorial candidate John Kasich, while Thune will headline an event for the Virginia GOP next Wednesday. http://bit.ly/9LrDZc

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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