Subject: Thune theory
From: "Alexander Snyder-Mackler" <[email-masked]>
To: "BB" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:28:45 -0400

Beau,
Per our discussions last week, I put together the attached memo outlining
what our version of John Thune's "shutdown" would look like. I must say
though, for the record, that I am morally opposed to thinking this way and
wrote this with one hand while holding my nose with the other. But in the
interest of staying several steps ahead and prepared for anything, I did it.
There is some information in here that is a bit sensitive and has not been
discussed with the full group, so I wanted to run the theories by you and
then we can discuss with the larger group if you feel comfortable.
A

    *CONFIDENTIAL*

*TO: Beau*

*FR: ASM*

*RE: Thune theory*

As we progress towards September 1st, we have discussed the possibility of a
fall without an opponent. *Let me first state, unequivocally, that even
entertaining this hypothetical is anathema to every bone in my body*. But,
in the interest of always looking ahead and being prepared, I’ve laid out
the options for our campaign to scale back further after September 1st – if
we don’t have an opponent.

*What the campaign look like externally?*

There is a fine line between scaling back a campaign (being sure not to be
accused of running up the score) and appearing as if you’re taking
re-election for granted and thus insulting the voters (which could
potentially be as harmful as appearing to run up the score). I assume you
would keep the core campaign activities in your regular schedule – some of
which you do in off-years:

·      Door-knocking with local candidates

·      Parades, parish nights, festivals, etc.

·      Attending all debates

·      Speak at as many local events as you’re invited to, especially those
involving your issues

We would have to balance our main goal of the campaign – continuing to
establish you as your own brand – with an added objective of trimming down
our external efforts. Additionally, this could reinforce the idea of you
being above politics (themes already reinforced by both being AG and serving
in Iraq).

*Helping Democratic candidates:* One potential danger is fulfilling the fear
of Democrats (and hope of Republicans) that giving you a free pass would
hurt Coons, Carney, and the whole Democratic ticket.  Our pivot point would
have to be not that Beau is packing up and going home; rather, that he is
focusing his personal time and campaign resources in a broader direction:
helping the full ticket. That means door-knocking with candidates,
headlining fundraisers, and probably writing checks to local campaigns
(money we won’t be able to use in a federal campaign, anyway) if we have
enough cash after the current fundraising push.

We could also make special efforts with the Coordinated Campaign, which the
statewide candidates and party insiders would greatly appreciate. For
example, we could offer our expansive Riverfront space as the staging
location for all Wilmington city lit-drops and other weekend efforts. Also,
we could go above and beyond in raising money for a cash-strapped
Coordinated. Our commitment right now is $25K, which Dennis said would be
fine (our ’08 commitment was $250K). If we could find a way to raise even
$40K-$50K into the Coordinated, we would be heroes. The party can take
contributions in large chunks ($20K-$30K) from most places.

*What would the campaign look like internally?*

Between consultants, staff, office expenses, and money already spent, there
is limited wiggle room in a budget that currently accounts for just over
$600K. There are a few places to cut (a poll being the biggest) that would
get us closer to $550-$575K for the year. Mike D has also offered that we
reduce his pay for September-November – “you can’t justify paying me that
much if you don’t have an opponent.” That would save about $30K. Also, this
has us paying Dennis for September-November, a time when we may not be
fundraising at all in this scenario (see below).

After that, though, the decisions get tougher. We have only three paid
staff. Do we want billboards ($15K)? And none of this includes traditional
paid media, though if we decide to scale back the whole campaign, that would
have to mean no TV, radio, or even mail. The only expenditure I could
envision would be limited online purchasing.

*Events*

Our current campaign plan calls for some bigger events in September/October.
Assuming we want to hold these events no matter what (which is what I
recommend), we should schedule them in August so they are set in stone
before the final filing deadline. Some of the events include:

·      A labor rally upstate

·      A few Beef n Beers (perhaps one in each county)

·      One Women for Beau event

·      FOP BBQ

*Fundraising:** *

Clearly scaling back the campaign would force us to halt any overt
fundraising – not to mention it would make fundraising that much more
difficult. This primarily means that we will have to plan to have almost all
our fundraising done before September 1st.

Perhaps we could hold previously schedule events (most likely out-of-state,
to reduce the possibility of contributors hearing about a scale-down) within
the first couple of weeks of September. After that, it could be politically
problematic to schedule fundraising events after saying you will scale down
your campaign.

For his part, Thune has played the magnanimity card: *By not fundraising
actively in South Dakota for his own campaign, Thune said he hopes other
Republican candidates will receive money that might have been harder to come
by had Democrats fielded a candidate against him. “We don't have to do that
now, so we're backing off in terms of fundraising so the other candidates
can raise money out there,” he said.*

*Conclusion*

If (knock on wood, cross your fingers) we end up without an opponent, we
have options in place to tone down our campaign – but it requires some
thinking and planning in the 6 weeks leading up to September 1st so we have
the flexibility to make the proper changes on the fly.

Our biggest concern would be the balancing act of downgrading our campaign
vs. appearing to take re-election for granted.

Needless to say, we must be – and remain – prepared for someone to jump into
the race.

-- 

Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-867