Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Romanoff surges, claims 'Romentum' - Bennet poll shows four-point race - Monday stakes: Who has the most to lose? - Deal to showcase women
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 05:52:58 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

COLORADO SURPRISE -- IT'S A LIVE ONE: The Democratic Senate primary in Colorado has tightened dramatically little more than a week before the Aug. 10 vote, with former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff jumping to near-parity or better with Sen. Michael Bennet. After launching a harsh television offensive against Bennet, Romanoff is now at least within striking distance of the incumbent -- or even slightly ahead, according to a Denver Post/9News poll that showed him leading Bennet, 48 percent to 45 percent. The poll also had Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck's GOP primary lead narrowing to nine points over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. http://bit.ly/bUagRG

THE VIEW FROM CAMP BENNET: A Bennet campaign poll conducted by Harstad Strategic Research and obtained by Morning Score has the senator hanging on to a four-point advantage, besting Romanoff 41 percent to 37 percent. Paul Harstad, whose survey tested 606 respondents from July 27 to July 28, notes in his polling memo: “Among the one-fourth of voters who had already mailed their ballot, Bennet is ahead by a 5% margin. Our survey samples a cross-section of all registered Democrats in Colorado from the voter list, and it screens down to those most likely to vote in the state's first-ever, almost exclusively mail-in election.” Read the full memo here. http://politi.co/dzR0Uo

ROMANOFF MIND-MELD: The former state legislator told Score that with a week to go before the primary, he'll make the case that he's the stronger Democratic candidate for the general election. “One of our regional organizers coined a term to describe our momentum, she called it 'Romentum,'” Romanoff said. “It's telling, my opponent has spent about $5 million -- probably more by now, two-thirds of it from special interests -- introducing himself to a state that didn't know him ... I'm not sure what several million more dollars will buy between now and November.”

As Newt Gingrich does Tennessee, Tom Tancredo makes his mark and Bill McCollum debates Rick Scott, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

MONDAY STAKES: There are 13 weeks, 22 primary days and three runoffs before the Nov. 2 election. Here's Morning Score's every-Monday list of the candidates, campaigns and groups with the most to gain or lose in the week ahead:

(1) Former Connecticut Rep. and back-from-the-dead Senate candidate Rob Simmons, who will determine in the next whether he becomes the ultimate comeback kid or a quirky political trivia question; (2) Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek, who needs to reverse the trend line in his Democratic Senate primary now if he wants to regain the lead over billionaire Jeff Greene by Aug. 24; (3) Former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes, who will be the next major Democratic candidate to tap dance around a presidential visit when Barack Obama visits Atlanta today; (4) The NRCC, which has gone way out on a limb for Tennessee congressional candidate Stephen Fincher's campaign, and will get either huge plaudits or a tough disappointment in Thursday's primary vote; (5) Kentucky Senate candidates Rand Paul and Jack Conway, who have Fancy Farm, the political event of the season, coming up at the end of the week.

TODAY -- DEAL 'EM IN: Former Rep. Nathan Deal is embarking on a five-city flyaround of Georgia to showcase his support among the state's top female Republicans. He'll be joined for part or all of the tour by Renee Untermann, the only Republican woman in the state Senate; state House Majority Caucus Chairwoman Donna Sheldon and House Republican Steering Committee member Charlice Byrd; as well as Joan Westmoreland, the wife of Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, and others. Deal is competing in a runoff primary for governor against Sarah Palin endorsee Karen Handel, and Deal spokesman Brian Robinson explained the former congressman's message: “This is about Ocilla, not Wasilla. This is about Jasper, not Juneau. This is about Atlanta, not Anchorage. This is about Newnan, not Nome.”

DARKEST BEFORE IT'S TOTALLY BLACK: Former Colorado Rep. Scott McInnis has cratered in the Republican primary for governor following a major plagiarism scandal. He now takes just 39 percent of the GOP vote, according to the Denver Post/9News poll, and has fallen behind first-time candidate Dan Maes, who takes 43 percent. Democratic Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper now leads both Republicans in head-to-head matchups and crushes them by 20-plus points in a three-way race involving former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo, who's running on the American Constitution Party line. http://bit.ly/cyMxC0

TROUBLE IN PARADISE: Joe Trippi is out and Tad Devine, Julian Mulvey and Vincent Rongione are in at the Jeff Greene for Senate campaign, the billionaire Democrat announced Sunday. Greene made the staff shakeup official in a statement just hours after the St. Petersburg Times published a story documenting the real estate mogul's history of tempestuous, abusive staff relationships. From the Adam Smith opus: “[B]ehind the bio soundbites and chipper TV ads lies a man widely disparaged by current and former employees, former tenants and political consultants as a self-absorbed cheapskate. A lawsuit accuses him of being cruel and verbally abusive to his former chef. A deckhand shocked on Greene's Summerwind yacht had to fight eight months to get his medical bills paid after Greene denied knowing him. ... 'If he plans on running his country like his yacht, we're all going to be sinking,' said John Walenczyk, a Summerwind deckhand.” http://bit.ly/dr1mqL

BIG 2010 IDEA -- ETHICS RIPPLES: The New York Times scopes out just how problematic ethics proceedings against former House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel and California Rep. Maxine Waters could be for the Democrats this fall. Write David Herszenhorn and Carl Hulse: “The trials threaten to tarnish Democrats as they try to turn the midterm elections into a choice between keeping them in power or returning to Bush-era policies. The trials would also stand to remind voters that Democrats, who in recent years extended their reach into the traditionally Republican turf of the rural West and South, are still anchored by an urban, liberal base and led by entrenched veteran lawmakers from big cities. ... Representative James E. Clyburn, Democrat of South Carolina and the House whip, defended the two lawmakers' rights to a trial, but said it was inevitable that some political opponents would try to turn the ethics questions into a race issue. 'Those Tea Party people that showed up at the health care debate, they will not hesitate for one moment to racialize something,' said Mr. Clyburn, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. 'They did, and they will.'” http://nyti.ms/9DIIHg

DCCC PICKS A FAVORITE: National Democrats have chosen a preferred candidate for the race against Rep. Joseph Cao, adding state Rep. Cedric Richmond to the DCCC's “Red to Blue” program even though he faces a contested primary against state Rep. Juan LaFonta and several other candidates. Richmond is the clear leader in the field when it comes to money, but Democrats only need to look back to 2008 to recall how important primaries are in this district: Cao only became a congressman because indicted Democratic Rep. Bill Jefferson managed to survive a Democratic primary against a divided set of opponents. http://politi.co/acVuJd

ENDORSED -- AGAIN: Minnesota state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the DFL-backed candidate for governor, was endorsed by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune in her primary battle with former Sen .Mark Dayton and former state Rep. Matt Entenza. The paper writes: “Among the leading candidates in the DFL contest, party endorsee Margaret Anderson Kelliher exhibits more ability to unify than do her chief rivals ... Kelliher offers a different style of leadership than Minnesota has seen in the governor's office in many a year. She is a collaborator. She shares the spotlight and allows others to shine.” http://bit.ly/cz2pQh

ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE: Rob Simmons is up with a new television ad ahead of next week's Republican Senate primary. It's a somber, thematic spot, featuring narration about public service and images of first responders, teachers -- and old images of Simmons in military gear. “Service protects us, heals us, inspires us,” the narrator says. “The right to serve is earned, it's not bought.” Facing only soft, positive advertising from her revived primary opponent, former wrestling executive and GOP frontrunner Linda McMahon continues to target her ads at presumptive Democratic nominee Richard Blumenthal, accusing him of breaking a promise not to accept money from special interests. Watch the Simmons spot http://bit.ly/az0oP7 ; and McMahon's http://bit.ly/bfFIqM

SET YOUR DVR: Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum and former health care executive Rick Scott face off today in their first debate of the Republican gubernatorial primary. The recorded exchange will air at 11:15 p.m. in Miami, Napes, Orlando and Tampa. http://bit.ly/cyTsop

ACROSS THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta:

-- Paul with the lead. Rand Paul continues to hold an edge in Kentucky's competitive Senate race, the WHAS 11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll shows. The automated poll conducted by SurveyUSA puts the Republican ahead of Democratic state Attorney General Jack Conway by eight points, leading 51 percent to 43 percent. http://bit.ly/9XeD5J

-- Newt for Tracy. American Solutions, the 527 group affiliated with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, endorsed Tennessee state Sen. Jim Tracy for retiring Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon's seat. Tracy is competing with state Sen. Diane Black, local GOP official Lou Ann Zelenik and others for the GOP nomination, and Gingrich praised Tracy for a “plan of cutting taxes, reducing spending, and stopping illegal immigration.” http://bit.ly/9mVBAQ

-- Castillo sweeps. Financial adviser David Castillo, running for the GOP nomination for retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird's seat, has won the endorsement of every newspaper that covers Washington's 3rd Congressional District. State Rep. Jaime Herrera is the preferred candidate of national Republicans, but Castillo has the backing of the Seattle Times, Longview Daily News, Chronicle of Centralia and the Columbian. http://bit.ly/casKJG

-- Farmers for Democrats. The Alabama Farmers Federation endorsed Rep. Bobby Bright's reelection campaign and former Hill staffer Steve Raby's bid for outgoing Rep. Parker Griffith's open seat. ALFA's a more conservative-leaning group, reports the AP, and state GOP Chairman Mike Hubbard complained: “I find it hard to see how you can endorse someone whose first vote in the next Congress will be for Nancy Pelosi and the other Democrats in power.” http://bit.ly/bFDHVI

-- Sheryl Crow objects. The Virginia Republican Party drew the singer's ire when it used Crow's 1996 song “A Change Would Do You Good” in a video targeting Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello. Crow's lawyer said that the state party was not authorized to use the copyrighted song, and the Virginia GOP backed off and re-posted the video without Crow's accompaniment. http://bit.ly/bN1sde

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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