Subject: Primary night yields good news for Obama, Dems
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2010 08:18:17 -0400

*Primary night yields good news for Obama, Dems*
By: John F. Harris
August 11, 2010 04:34 AM EDT

President Barack
Obama<http://topics.politico.com/index.cfm/topic/barackobama> and
the Democratic Party, who have been starved for good news through much of
2010, finally received a generous helping Tuesday night.

Republicans, meanwhile, were left with several new reasons to wonder whether
all the favorable national trends showing up in polls are enough to overcome
local candidates who are inspiring little confidence about their readiness
for the general election 12 weeks from now.

In each of the four states that held primaries Tuesday, the GOP either
nominated or gave an overnight lead to candidates tarnished by scandal,
gaffes or some other significant vulnerability.

The headline victory
<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40912.html> belonged
to Sen. Michael Bennet, the Colorado Democrat who, with extensive help from
Obama and the party establishment in Washington, galloped to a surprisingly
wide 9-point victory over challenger Andrew
Romanoff<http://topics.politico.com/index.cfm/topic/andrewromanoff>.
A former state House speaker, Romanoff once looked well-positioned to rally
liberal discontent and give the White House a very visible black eye.

But the party establishment showed it still has some fight, even in an
anti-establishment year. And Democrats, in an assessment that many
independent analysts tend to agree with, said the most favorable news for
them may have come from the results on theRepublican
side<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40936.html>
.

The GOP nominee will be Ken
Buck<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40938.html>,
a county prosecutor and insurgent conservative who Democrats will try to
paint as a Colorado version of Sharron Angle — the Nevada Republican whose
rhetorical stubbed toes and strident ideological profile have weakened GOP
prospects there.

The Colorado <http://topics.politico.com/index.cfm/topic/colorado> results,
combined with Tuesday's returns in Connecticut, Georgia and Minnesota, and
other recent primaries, suggest it may be time to scrutinize a treasured
2010 storyline — about an angry electorate, determined to punish insiders
and professional pols of all stripes, rushing to embrace ideological
insurgents.

It’s not that this narrative is all wrong. But it appears to be
significantly more true among Republicans than Democrats.

Buck, for instance, was favored by some tea party activists but opposed by
much of the state and national party leadership. Buck’s caught-on-tape
remark that he ought to be elected because he didn’t wear high heels wasn’t
enough for Lt. Gov Jane Norton to close the gap in their primary, but it
will certainly be used against the Republican nominee in thegeneral
election<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40887.html>
.

Republicans also didn’t do themselves any favors in Colorado’s gubernatorial
contest by narrowly nominating Dan Maes. GOP leaders had hoped former Rep.
Scott McInnis, who has become embroiled in a plagiarism scandal, would win
the nomination and then agree to drop out — allowing the party to tap a new
nominee who would give them a better chance against former Denver Mayor John
Hickenlooper.

But Maes is unlikely to quit, and his recent suggestion that a Denver
bicycle-sharing program may "threaten our personal freedoms" and lead to
greater U.N. influence has only amplified Republican fears about the
contest.

In Georgia, a split Republican Party has left former Democratic Gov. Roy
Barnes smiling. Barnes’s attempt at a political comeback was lifted when the
GOP emerged from their gubernatorial run-off almost evenly divided between
Secretary of State Karen Handel and Rep. Nathan Deal. Deal appeared to have
edged Handel by less than 3,000 votes, but Georgia law allows for a recount
for any margin under 1 percent.

The notion of a continuing Republican nomination battle — effectively a
third contest following the primary and run-off — will only make it more
difficult for the GOP to regroup and take on Barnes, who won without a
run-off in July. And if Deal is ultimately the nominee, Democrats will
surely hammer him over a congressional ethics investigation and apparent
federal grand jury probe into a business arrangement the former congressman
had with an obscure state program.

“This is the best possible outcome for Democrats,” crowed Democratic
Governors Association Executive Director Nathan Daschle. “Even after a
vicious run-off, Georgia Republicans couldn’t decide between two bad
options: a corrupt congressman or a Capitol insider.”

In Connecticut, Republicans nominated a decidedly untested candidate to
compete for the Senate seat held by the retiring Sen. Christopher Dodd.
Linda McMahon, the self-funding former head of the WWE, will face an
onslaught of attacks about her wrestling company, and considerable
skepticism from one of the most affluent and educated electorates in
America.

Her opponent, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, has his own
vulnerabilities following reports that he misrepresented his Vietnam
service, but the Democrat is enjoying double-digit leads in polls even after
months of McMahon advertisements.

"Connecticut Republicans today nominated a corporate CEO of WWE, who under
her watch violence was peddled to kids, steroid abuse was rampant, yet she
made millions," said DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez of New Jersey in a
statement Tuesday evening.

In the Connecticut governor’s race, national Democrats were happy that
former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy defeated Greenwich millionaire Ned Lamont,
best known for his defeat of Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic
Senate primary.

Meanwhile, Republicans nominated Tom Foley, a self-funding businessman and
former ambassador to Ireland under George W. Bush, who has been dogged by
stories about a messy divorce, allegations that he exaggerated his role in
helping rebuild Iraq during time there as a civilian appointee, and attacks
on his involvement in companies that laid off workers.

In Minnesota, Democratic primary voters narrowly rejected the party
endorsee, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, in favor of former U.S.
Sen. Mark Dayton. After an uneven Senate performance that ended with his
voluntary retirement after one term, Dayton is not exactly a juggernaut. But
he still starts with a leg up against Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer, whose
campaign is off to a rocky start. The Republican recently shuffled his
campaign leadership, and he offended restaurant servers and other laborers
by suggesting that the minimum wage be altered to take into account customer
tips.

But it is the Colorado results that will carry the loudest echo. This was a
state Obama won in 2008 — in what was taken as a sign of new Democratic
strength in the mountain west. But following that victory, the party seemed
to lose momentum. Embattled Gov. Bill Ritter forwent a campaign for a second
term, and Bennet — a former Denver schools superintendent who was appointed
to the job after Obama made incumbent Ken Salazar interior secretary — was
facing cloudy prospects in both the primary and general election.

Things look brighter now, thanks to the GOP’s gubernatorial woes and
Bennet’s victory — a result that especially pleased the Obama White House
because it also meant Romanoff’s comeuppance.

Romanoff not only rebuffed the attempts of top Obama aides to prevent him
from running, but he also released private emails from Deputy White House
Chief of Staff Jim Messina regarding a conversation the two had about
potential administration jobs that would have lured him away from the race.

Obama, having stumped for a string of successive losing Democratic
candidates and unable to get his preferred candidate in other races, needed
a victory badly and went all out for Bennet. Obama raised money for the
senator, appeared in a mail piece and TV ad for him, and cut a robo-call.
Cabinet officials also helped the incumbent with fundraising and voter
contact. And the White House even got comedian George Lopez, an Obama
supporter, to record a robo-call aimed at Colorado’s Hispanic community.

The Bennet win was also important to Obama for another reason — Romanoff had
the support of Bill Clinton, and Obama aides were dreading the prospect of
having to hear about how the last Democratic president had more muscle with
the party base than the one currently in the Oval Office.

“This has been a tough year for Democrats, but they got some good news in
all four primary states,” said University of Virginia professor Larry
Sabato. “Arguably, they chose well and strengthened themselves in the key
contests, while Republicans often picked the weaker candidate for November.
One good primary night does not an election make, and the GOP is still going
to claim the lion’s share of victories this fall. But thirsty Democrats are
grateful for these four sips of water.”

Prominent Republican, former congressman and MSNBC anchor Joe Scarborough
agreed. "These rolling elections have yielded results that should give the
GOP reason to pause. A majority is not guaranteed," Scarborough said on air
Tuesday night.

The results are also a reminder that the torrent of coverage about 2010
being a grim-reaper year for incumbents everywhere doesn’t entirely jibe
with reality. Just like earlier this cycle with Arkansas Sen. Blanche
Lincoln, who survived a fierce intraparty challenge, Bennet showed that a
determined candidate with influential friends can swim against the year’s
hostile political currents, though both Democrats still face major general
election hurdles.

Democrats think these currents, and the most vicious intraparty fratricide,
are seen most vividly in the GOP, thanks to the rise of newly engaged
grassroots conservatives.

"It's more a tea party thing than it is with Democrats," said longtime
Colorado Democratic strategist Michael Stratton.

Of the Democratic incumbents who have lost, all could be chalked up to
unique factors that aren't totally related to this year's political
environment: Sen. Arlen Specter (switched parties), Rep. Carolyn Cheeks
Kilpatrick (hurt by the arrest of her son, the former mayor), and Rep. Alan
Mollohan (faced lingering ethics questions and was late to recognize his
electoral jeopardy).

A number of Republican incumbents this year have been swamped by what
appears to be a broader anti-establishment wave in the GOP, combined with
conservative attacks on their ideological flanks. The ranks of Republican
losers include veteran Utah Sen. Robert Bennett, party-switching Rep. Parker
Griffith in Alabama, Rep. Bob Inglis in South Carolina, and Nevada Gov. Jim
Gibbons. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell took a pie to the face when
Kentucky voters rejected his preferred choice and nominated conservative
maverick Rand Paul in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning.

But, as Sabato notes, for all this year’s turbulence, 98.5 percent of House
and Senate incumbents seeking another term have been re-nominated.

"I think what is remarkable is that, despite the tea party and a bad
economy, the vast majority of incumbents are having little trouble winning,"
Sabato said.

*POLITICO reporters Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns contributed.*
-- 
Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
[email-masked]